Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams prediction: Boise State's ground game takes aim at FBS's worst run defense

A run game against nothing

Boise State is 7-1, unbeaten in the Pac-12 and chasing a College Football Playoff berth. The clearest path through Fort Collins goes straight up the middle. The Broncos run for 222.8 yards per game, 11th in FBS. Colorado State allows 257.6 rushing yards per game, dead last of 138.

The line numbers say this isn't a fluke. Line yards measure how much ground the blockers create before a runner reaches the second level. Boise State's offense ranks 22nd there, while the Rams' defense allows 3.59 line yards per carry, 137th. Stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is worse: Colorado State sits 132nd at 13.9%. Its front also ranks 130th in tackles for loss per game.

Dylan Riley is the hammer. He has 1,049 yards on 6.4 per carry and four touchdowns in his last three games. Our projection still has Boise State at 275 rushing yards.

Madsen's knee, Cutforth's moment

Maddux Madsen is questionable with a knee injury. Spencer Danielson called him day-to-day and said the injury isn't expected to be long-term, but no decision has come out for Saturday. If Madsen can't go, Max Cutforth starts. He has been taking first-team reps.

Madsen has been remarkably clean, with 15 touchdown passes against one interception. Boise State as a whole ranks seventh in turnovers per game and fourth in havoc allowed, the share of plays that end in a sack, tackle for loss, fumble or interception. That ball security matters against a Rams defense that ranks 14th in takeaways per game. It's the one thing Colorado State's defense does well.

Cutforth isn't an unknown. Last Saturday he threw three touchdown passes in the final seven minutes against Texas State. The last one, to Akeem Wright with 2:40 left, won it 46-45. Against this defense, he mostly needs to hand the ball off and hit play-action throws.

Where Colorado State strikes back

The Rams have a real offense. They score 35.5 points per game, 24th nationally, and rank second in explosiveness, which measures how much value their successful plays produce. Boise State ranks 138th in explosiveness allowed. The Broncos' defense is efficient most of the time but gets gashed when it breaks: it ranks 23rd in success rate allowed (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) yet 128th in passing yards allowed per game.

That crack has widened. Over the last three games Boise State allowed 28.7 points per game, and it gave away a 25-point halftime lead to Texas State. Hauss Hejny is Colorado State's starter, and he went 19-of-30 for 186 yards and a touchdown in the 31-14 loss at Utah State. Reginald Vick Jr. is the deep threat, with 425 yards on 29 catches. The Rams also protect well, allowing 0.62 sacks per game, fourth in FBS. That gives Hejny time to look for the shots this secondary has been giving up.

Hidden yards and third downs

Colorado State's best weapon may be its kick return unit. The Rams average 33.4 yards per kickoff return, third nationally. Boise State's coverage ranks 78th, and the Broncos already start their drives deep in their own end, 133rd in average starting field position.

Third down should even that out. Boise State converts 51.8% of the time, eighth in FBS. Colorado State allows 51.2%, 137th. Sustained Bronco drives also keep the Rams' explosive offense on the sideline.

History leans one way. Boise State has won seven straight in this series, including 49-21 last season.

What the number says

The spread opened and sits at Boise State -17.5, with the total at 68.5. The Broncos are 4-4 against the spread and failed to cover in three of their last four, including as an 11-point favorite against Texas State. Colorado State is 3-4-1.

Our model has Boise State by 18.4 with a fair total of 68.9, so it barely differs from the market. It gives Colorado State a 12.0% chance to win outright. For the first half it makes Boise State a 10.6-point favorite, with a fair total of 34.7.