Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles prediction: Two Collapsing Run Defenses Turn Arkansas State-Southern Miss Into a Ground War
Southern Miss allows more rushing yards than any team in FBS, Arkansas State is close behind, and both offenses can run well enough to exploit it.
| Spread | Arkansas State -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 62 |
- Expect a high-volume rushing game with long drives on both sides. Arkansas State's efficiency on third down should beat a struggling Southern Miss defense.
- Southern Miss's offensive line, 11th in line yards, against an Arkansas State front ranked 132nd in line yards allowed.
- Our model doesn't price this game yet.
Nobody Here Stops the Run
Two Sun Belt teams with three wins between them, none in league play, meet at M. M. Roberts Stadium carrying run defenses that rank among the worst in the country. Southern Miss gives up 275.6 rushing yards per game, 138th of 138. Arkansas State allows 212.8, 132nd. The team that leans on that weakness harder probably wins.
Southern Miss has the better tool for the job. Its line yards (a measure of how much push the offensive line creates per carry) sit at 3.55, 11th nationally, and its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 30th.
The Red Wolves can answer on the ground too. Their rushing EPA ranks 41st, and Southern Miss is 135th in rushing EPA allowed. Both offenses should find the same easy yards.
Owens Stays on Schedule
Arkansas State's offense lacks big plays, ranking 103rd in explosiveness. It wins by staying steady instead. The Red Wolves' success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) is 50.4%, 13th in FBS. They convert 50.8% of third downs, 17th.
Southern Miss can't get off the field. Opponents convert 45.8% of third downs against the Golden Eagles, 123rd nationally. Over their last three games they allowed 42.3 points per game.
Hunter Summers is his main target, with 145 yards and two scores in that game and three touchdowns over the last three.
Lyddy Gets a Soft Secondary
Southern Miss lost Ethan Hampton to a fractured throwing hand in late September, with a four-to-six-week timeline. Landry Lyddy has started since and will stay in the job while Hampton is out. He has been productive. Over three games he has 753 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions at 8.3 yards per attempt. He also beat Arkansas State last year in Jonesboro, scoring both through the air and on the ground in a 27-21 win.
Arkansas State's pass defense looks respectable by yardage, at 34th, but only because opponents spend so much time running on it. Its passing EPA allowed ranks 135th.
Southern Miss's best pass rusher could matter at the other end.
Where Drives Go to Die
Both teams beat themselves recently. Southern Miss turned the ball over three times on drives that reached the red zone in its 55-34 loss at Troy. Arkansas State committed three turnovers in its 56-49 loss to South Alabama. Afterward, Butch Jones called his team's fourth-down failures unacceptable and said his defense has to make more stops.
Southern Miss has a kicking problem on top of that. It has made 2 of 5 field goals, a 40.0% rate that ranks 135th. That turns red-zone stalls into empty trips. The Golden Eagles also start drives deep in their own territory, 131st in average starting field position.
What to Watch
- Southern Miss carries: if Robinson and Wilder get steady volume, the Golden Eagles control the clock against the 132nd-ranked stuff rate.
- Arkansas State on third down: a 17th-ranked conversion offense against a 123rd-ranked defense.
- Turnovers in scoring range: both teams just gave the ball away three times in losses.
- The series: the last four meetings split 2-2, and the road team won the most recent one.
Key players
- Trey Owens (Arkansas State): He completed 72.4% of his passes over the last three games with six touchdowns.
- Hunter Summers (Arkansas State): He caught nine passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns against South Alabama.
- Solomon Baggett (Arkansas State): He averages 5.2 yards per carry this season and should face a run defense ranked 138th.
- Landry Lyddy (Southern Miss): He has 753 yards and six touchdowns in three games filling in for the injured Ethan Hampton.
- Steven Robinson (Southern Miss): He leads the team with 348 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
- Mario Sanders II (Southern Miss): He has four touchdown catches over his last three games, including 102 yards at Troy.
Numbers that matter
| Southern Miss rush yards allowed | 275.6 | Per game, ranked 138th of 138 in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss line yards | 3.55 | Ranked 11th, giving its run game a real edge against Arkansas State. |
| Arkansas State stuff rate | 13.0% | Ranked 132nd; the Red Wolves rarely stop runs at the line. |
| Arkansas State third-down rate | 50.8% | Ranked 17th, against a Southern Miss defense ranked 123rd on third down. |
| Southern Miss field goals | 2/5 | A 40.0% rate that turns red-zone stalls into empty trips. |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: quick answers
Who is favored in Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles?
Arkansas State is favored by 6.5 points (Arkansas State -6.5).
What is the over/under for Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles?
The total is 62 points.
When is Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.