Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers prediction: Auburn's run game has a clear lane against Arkansas
Arkansas ranks near the bottom of the country at stopping the run and at running it, which hands Byrum Brown and Auburn the easier path to points.
| Spread | Auburn -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 54 |
- Auburn should lean on Byrum Brown and the ground game while Arkansas struggles to run and has to drive the field through the air.
- Auburn's rushing attack faces an Arkansas run defense ranked 129th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our number has Auburn by 11.52, a point more than the market's 10.5, and matches the 53.5 total.
Room to run in Auburn
Auburn is 4-4 and needs a win here to keep its first bowl trip since 2023 within reach. With a win, the Tigers would need just one more from their final three games. The cleanest way to get it runs straight through the middle of an Arkansas defense that hasn't stopped anyone on the ground.
Arkansas ranks 129th of 138 in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each play moves a team toward scoring). Its front gives up 3.15 line yards per carry, 111th, and its stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) sits 110th. Auburn's run game is the healthiest part of an uneven offense: 45th in rushing EPA and 51st in line yards.
Brown is the engine. He has 485 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns this season, and he ran for 115 at Georgia in Auburn's upset win. Jeremiah Cobb adds 5.1 yards per carry. Our projection has Auburn at 186 rushing yards. That fits a pattern we tested: when favorites cover, their rushing totals go over far more often than chance would predict.
Arkansas can't find a gear
The Razorbacks are 3-5 and 1-4 in the SEC because their offense rarely builds anything. They score 19.6 points per game, 126th, and rank 134th in explosiveness. Their run game is worse still: 133rd in rushing EPA, with 2.7 line yards per carry, 128th.
That puts the load on KJ Jackson, who has thrown for 1,673 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. He has one touchdown pass across his last three games. The best hope is Chris Marshall, who has 601 receiving yards. Marshall missed the Missouri loss with a lower-body injury and was upgraded to probable on Wednesday. Silverfield had been cautious earlier in the week: "With a lower-body injury, there's no telling."
The matchup favors Marshall if he is close to full speed. Auburn allows 252.2 passing yards per game, 123rd. Arkansas also converts 43.1% on third down, 44th, so it can sustain drives when it stays ahead of the chains. Fans have pointed at offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey. Silverfield said in-season staff changes are "always my job" to consider, but he backed Cramsey this week.
The sack column cuts one way
Auburn's biggest flaw is protection. The Tigers allow 4.25 sacks per game, 136th in the country. Against most SEC fronts that would be the story of this game. Arkansas isn't most fronts: it records 1.25 sacks per game, 115th, and its havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) ranks 119th.
Quincy Rhodes Jr. is listed probable and leads the Razorbacks with 3.0 sacks. Without more help, Brown should have time to extend plays.
The pressure runs the other direction too. Auburn averages 6.12 tackles for loss per game, 34th, and Arkansas ranks 122nd in havoc allowed. Xavier Atkins has 7.5 tackles for loss in five games, and Elijah Melendez has 9.0.
Recent form needs context
Auburn's last three games look ugly. It allowed an average of 35.7 points per game, and opponents hit a 51.9% success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. Those opponents were Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss, ranked 2nd, 3rd and 16th in SP+. At Ole Miss, Auburn gave up 28 unanswered points in a 45-15 loss.
Arkansas has played a tough slate too, but it has nothing comparable to Auburn's 27-24 win at Georgia. Its only win in its last four came at Vanderbilt. In the Missouri loss it hung around in the first half, then couldn't sustain it after halftime.
Scoring chances could decide the margin. Arkansas allows 4.65 points per scoring opportunity, 136th, so Auburn should turn its trips into touchdowns. Two notes cut the other way. The road team has won each of the last five meetings. Arkansas defensive coordinator Ron Roberts, who ran Auburn's defense in 2023, returns to Jordan-Hare.
What the line and our number say
Auburn opened at -11.5, and the line has moved toward Arkansas to -10.5, with the total at 53.5. Neither team has been reliable against the spread: Arkansas is 3-5 and Auburn is 2-6.
Our model sets Auburn as an 11.52-point favorite, projecting 32.5 to 21.0. That gives the Tigers a 77.0% chance to win. Our total matches the market at 53.5. The run-game mismatch explains why our number sits slightly on Auburn's side of the move.
Where the money is on Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas Razorbacks: 49% of bets, 7% of the money; Auburn Tigers: 51% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Auburn Tigers -10.5: 45% of bets, 88% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks +10.5: 55% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 54.5: 56% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 54.5: 44% of bets, 82% of the money.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Arkansas Razorbacks | Auburn Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 20.0 (122nd of 138) | 24.3 (93rd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 (96th of 138) | 26.3 (86th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 4.88 (127th of 138) | 5.28 (109th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01 (111th of 138) | 5.41 (66th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 231.1 (66th of 138) | 215.4 (83rd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.0 (129th of 138) | 152.8 (73rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.1% (45th of 138) | 44.2% (36th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 (103rd of 138) | 1.38 (79th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 (60th of 138) | 1.50 (29th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.021 (117th of 138) | 0.098 (89th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.165 (116th of 138) | 0.093 (80th of 138) |
Key players
- Byrum Brown (Auburn): He has 485 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, and he is the main threat against a run defense ranked 129th.
- Jeremiah Cobb (Auburn): He averages 5.1 yards per carry this season, the best rate among Auburn's backs with real volume.
- Chas Nimrod (Auburn): His four receiving touchdowns lead Auburn's wideouts, and two came in the last three games.
- Xavier Atkins (Auburn): He has 7.5 tackles for loss in five games, facing a line ranked 122nd in havoc allowed.
- KJ Jackson (Arkansas): He has 1,673 passing yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions, carrying an offense that can't run.
- Chris Marshall (Arkansas): He leads Arkansas with 601 receiving yards and was upgraded to probable after missing the Missouri game.
- Antonio Jordan (Arkansas): He caught seven passes for 106 yards against Missouri with Marshall out.
- Quincy Rhodes Jr. (Arkansas): He leads the team with 3.0 sacks and is the main pass-rush threat against a line allowing 4.25 per game.
Numbers that matter
| Arkansas rushing EPA allowed | 129th | Auburn's ground game, 45th in rushing EPA, should find steady yardage. |
|---|---|---|
| Auburn sacks allowed per game | 4.25 | It ranks 136th, but Arkansas's pass rush ranks 115th in sacks per game. |
| Arkansas points per opportunity allowed | 4.65 | It ranks 136th, so Auburn's scoring chances should turn into touchdowns. |
| Arkansas explosiveness | 134th | An offense without big plays struggles to keep pace with a double-digit favorite. |
| Our fair home spread | -11.52 | That is about a point more on Auburn than the current -10.5. |
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers?
Auburn is favored by 10.5 points (Auburn -10.5).
What is the over/under for Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers?
The total is 54 points.
When is Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET.
Where is Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers played?
Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where is the money on Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas Razorbacks: 49% of bets, 7% of the money; Auburn Tigers: 51% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Auburn Tigers -10.5: 45% of bets, 88% of the money; Arkansas Razorbacks +10.5: 55% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 54.5: 56% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 54.5: 44% of bets, 82% of the money.