Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars prediction: BYU's ground game greets an Arizona State team searching for a quarterback

Triage at quarterback

BYU's first loss came at UCF, a 39-31 double-overtime defeat that turned on a flag after UCF's winning kick attempt, with linebacker Kendal Wall penalized for contact with the kicker. Now the No. 8 Cougars are trying to stay on a path toward the Big 12 title game and the playoff. The team in their way won the last meeting and may start a freshman quarterback.

Mikey Keene left the win over Kansas State with a right knee injury. Kenny Dillingham didn't dress it up on Monday: "Mikey is honestly questionable." Wednesday's practice report still carried that label. If Keene can't go, freshman Jake Fette starts. Cutter Boley has been benched two weeks running; he was booed as he entered the Kansas State game and finished 1-of-5 for 7 yards.

That churn lands on an offense that already struggles to stay on the field. The Sun Devils convert 30.1% of third downs, 134th of 138 FBS teams. They give up 2.71 sacks per game, 118th. Their havoc allowed rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, ranks 122nd, and offensive lineman Tana Alo-Thpuola has been ruled out. BYU doesn't pile up sacks, but its havoc rate ranks 35th, and a young quarterback behind a shuffled line is what that kind of defense feeds on.

Bachmeier carries the load

BYU's offense runs through its quarterback and a line that rarely loses. The Cougars rank 3rd nationally in rushing EPA (expected points added per play) at 0.285. They allow 0.57 sacks per game, 5th in the country. Bear Bachmeier has 321 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns on top of his passing.

The backfield is thinner this week. LJ Martin, who averages 7.8 yards per carry, is out, as is offensive lineman Trevin Ostler, and Andrew Gentry is done for the season with an ankle injury. Preston Rex, at 5.7 yards per carry, should inherit more of the work.

Arizona State's front offers limited resistance. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 16.9%, 97th nationally. BYU converts 54.6% of its third downs, 3rd in the country, so the Cougars can sustain drives even without the big runs.

Mack and Harris, the counterpunch

Arizona State's hopes rest on two players. Cardae Mack has run for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns in his recent stretch. Four of those scores came against Kansas State. Reed Harris has 800 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season, and he caught passes for 147 yards against the Wildcats despite the quarterback shuffle.

BYU's secondary is short a starter. Cornerback Evan Johnson is out, and Mississippi State transfer Jayven Williams moves into the lineup. Harris working against that change is the matchup most likely to keep Arizona State within the number.

The series gives the Sun Devils some nerve. They lead it 21-8. They also won the last meeting 28-23, a game Dillingham revisited this week: "How I acted was not OK."

Hidden yards favor Provo

Field position could quietly widen the margin. Arizona State's net punting average is 35.7 yards, 127th nationally. Opponents average 23.0 yards per punt return against the Sun Devils, 132nd. The result is an average opponent starting spot of the 32.1, which ranks 134th.

BYU is strong on the other side of that ledger. The Cougars average 37.2 yards per kick return, 3rd in the country. They net 44.5 yards per punt, 16th. Short fields for BYU's efficient offense are how a two-score game becomes three.

Where the number lands

The market opened BYU -17.5 and has drifted toward Arizona State, to -16.5, with the total at 48.5. Our model makes it BYU by 17.17. Its projected score is 32.8 to 15.7, and its fair total of 48.5 matches the market, so there's little daylight on the full game. It gives BYU an 86% chance to win.

For the first half, our number is BYU -9.58 with a total of 25.11. BYU has covered six of its seven lined games. Arizona State is 3-4 against the spread. If BYU covers, its rushing is the natural companion: in tested games, the favorite's rushing cleared its line 33.9% of the time when the favorite covered.