Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers prediction: Tennessee's nation-leading pass rush is the Vols' best shot at Keelon Russell

Russell against the rush

Alabama comes to Neyland Stadium with the more dangerous offense and a weakness it can't hide. Tennessee's best weapon this week is a pass rush that leads the country, not a quarterback. The Vols may not even know who their quarterback is.

Tennessee averages 4.0 sacks per game, 1st of 138, and its havoc rate of 21.5% ranks 6th. Havoc is the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. Alabama allows 2.67 sacks per game, which ranks 116th, and its havoc allowed ranks 94th. Xavier Gilliam leads the front with 10.0 tackles for loss. Tyree Weathersby has 3.5 sacks in his last three games.

That pressure is the whole game, because Keelon Russell has been close to unstoppable when he has time. Over his last three games he has thrown for 835 yards and 8 touchdowns without an interception. Georgia was the exception. The Bulldogs held him to 185 yards in a 20-17 loss, Alabama's first of the season.

Tennessee's secondary is built to repeat that. The Vols rank 3rd in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) and 11th in explosiveness allowed. Alabama may also be without its captain at receiver: DeBoer said there's a "pretty good chance" Ryan Coleman-Williams misses the game with knee and head injuries. More of the load shifts to Lotzeir Brooks, who has 211 receiving yards over the last three games.

Tennessee's quarterback guessing game

Josh Heupel wouldn't name a starter on Monday. "We will find out here through the week," he said, and he doesn't have to reveal his choice until about 90 minutes before kickoff.

George MacIntyre started the win at Arkansas. Faizon Brandon has been dealing with a right shoulder injury since the Texas game. He was listed for emergency use only in Fayetteville, and Heupel said he "didn't practice much." No one has reported that he has been cleared. Brandon's last appearance was rough: 3 of 8 for 0 yards and an interception against Auburn.

The offense has sagged around the uncertainty. Tennessee has averaged 21.7 points over its last three games with a 39.0% success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. For the season, the Vols rank 110th in passing yards per game and 100th in passing EPA. Alabama does have a soft spot here, ranking 122nd in explosiveness allowed. Tennessee has shown little ability to hit those big plays.

Bishop runs into the wall

Tennessee's offense is DeSean Bishop. He has 678 rushing yards at 6.3 per carry. He ran for 220 yards against Auburn and scored the late go-ahead touchdown in the 24-17 win at Arkansas. The Vols rank 15th in rushing yards per game and 7th in rushing EPA.

This is also where Alabama's defense is at its best. The Tide allow 2.19 line yards per carry, 6th nationally. Line yards measure how much ground blockers create on each run. Alabama's stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 25.0%, which ranks 10th. The Tide also rank 9th in rushing EPA allowed. Defensive lineman Terrance Green has re-aggravated an old injury and has been limited in practice, which is worth watching.

Tennessee has already faced a front like this once. Texas held Bishop to 34 yards on 11 carries in a 20-17 Vols loss.

Hidden yards and the line

Alabama turns small edges into points. It forces 2.33 takeaways per game, 3rd nationally, and starts drives at its own 32.9-yard line on average, which ranks 9th. Its kicker is 9/9 on field goals. Tennessee's offense ranks 74th in turnovers per game, and its punt coverage gives up 16.2 yards per return, 125th.

Alabama's discipline is a talking point after Georgia. Dijon Lee's late personal foul let the Bulldogs run out the clock, and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said Lee will be held accountable.

The market has moved toward the home side. Tennessee opened as a 5.5-point underdog and sits at +4.5. The Vols covered as 5.5-point underdogs against Texas and have won the last two meetings in Knoxville. They have also played a softer schedule. Their FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 4.9, against 10.5 for Alabama's.