Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers prediction: LSU's pass rush could decide Keelon Russell's afternoon in Death Valley
Alabama's shaky protection faces one of the country's most disruptive fronts, and the Tide's stalling offense has little room to absorb a bad day.
| Spread | LSU -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 52.5 |
- LSU is likely to grind out a one-score win if its front keeps Russell off schedule and Alabama can't run the ball.
- LSU's pass rush, third nationally in sacks per game, against an Alabama line that ranks 121st in sacks allowed.
- Our model makes LSU a 6.2-point favorite with a 52.5 total, almost exactly where the market sits.
Russell under siege
For now, this is the last annual meeting of a rivalry that won't return to the schedule until 2028 in Tuscaloosa. No. 9 Alabama and No. 15 LSU are both 6-2. The winner controls its own playoff path, and the loser takes a third loss into the back half of November.
The game probably turns on one mismatch. Alabama allows 2.88 sacks per game, 121st of 138 FBS teams. Its havoc allowed rate ranks 109th. Havoc is the share of snaps that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. LSU is built to exploit exactly that: it averages 3.88 sacks per game, third in the country, and its havoc rate ranks fourth. Princewill Umanmielen leads the way with 9.0 sacks, and Jordan Ross has 3.0 sacks over the last three games.
The Alabama line is also banged up. Racin Delgatty and William Sanders are both questionable, Sanders after a TightRope procedure on his right ankle. DeBoer said Delgatty is making progress toward a return.
The run game offers little relief. LSU ranks fifth in line yards allowed per carry, the yardage credited to the blockers on a run, and Alabama's rushing offense ranks 75th. That puts the load on Keelon Russell, whose arm has been the Tide's best weapon. His 9.3 yards per attempt on the season has slipped to 7.2 over the last three games, with 3 interceptions. At Tennessee he managed 147 yards and threw two picks.
Leavitt's hot streak, tested
Sam Leavitt is coming off the best stretch of his season. Over his last three games he completed 75.2% of his passes, with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. He said he was running "100%" through a hamstring issue after the bye. Jackson Harris has been his favorite target, with 317 yards and 5 touchdowns over that span, including 178 yards at Auburn.
LSU wins through efficiency, not big plays. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, ranks fifth nationally, while its explosiveness ranks 94th. LSU converts 51.7% of its third downs, 10th in the country. Alabama's secondary has given up chunks: it ranks 87th in passing yards allowed and 105th in explosiveness allowed. DB Nick Sherman is out, and DB Zabien Brown is questionable.
Alabama's counterpunch is the takeaway. The Tide force 2.38 turnovers per game, third nationally, and Leavitt has thrown 8 interceptions this season. LSU also can't lean on its run game: Alabama ranks 12th in rushing EPA allowed, meaning runs against the Tide lose expected points on average.
Form against schedule
The recent numbers diverge sharply. Over their last three games, LSU averaged 34.3 points and Alabama 19.3. Alabama's success rate over that stretch fell to 40.1%.
Schedule explains part of the gap. Alabama's three opponents were Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M, and Georgia ranks second in SP+. LSU played Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn, rated 31st, 52nd and 51st. Alabama's season-long opponents also carry a higher average SP+ rating than LSU's.
LSU has slipped before when it was favored. The Tigers lost 35-34 at Kentucky as a 9-point favorite. In his first season, Lane Kiffin hasn't yet beaten a team ranked in the CFP top 25. He also suggested the SEC moved the kickoff to punish LSU. It will be LSU's first Saturday afternoon home game against Alabama since 2010. Both teams come in off two weeks of rest.
Hidden yards and the number
Alabama holds a clear field-position edge. LSU's net punting average of 34.2 yards ranks 135th of 137. Alabama's average starting field position ranks eighth, and its coverage units rank fourth in kick return average allowed. If drives stall, the Tide should win the field-position game.
The Tide also give the ball away. Their 1.5 turnovers per game rank 103rd, which wipes out some of what their defense takes away.
The market has moved toward LSU, from -3.5 at the open to -6 now, with the total at 52.5. Our model agrees with that move. It makes LSU a 6.2-point favorite, projects a 29.4 to 23.1 final, and gives the Tigers a 65% chance to win. For the first half, the model's numbers are LSU -3.41 and a total of 27.0.
Where the money is on Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide: 79% of bets, 48% of the money; LSU Tigers: 21% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: LSU Tigers -6.5: 49% of bets, 46% of the money; Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5: 52% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 52.5: 78% of bets, 83% of the money; Under 52.5: 22% of bets, 17% of the money.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Alabama Crimson Tide | LSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 38.3 (12th of 138) | 40.1 (9th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 (43rd of 138) | 16.0 (13th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.58 (20th of 138) | 6.42 (30th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22 (50th of 138) | 4.27 (5th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 260.0 (31st of 138) | 317.8 (7th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9 (75th of 138) | 192.3 (30th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.2% (44th of 138) | 51.7% (9th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 (103rd of 138) | 1.38 (79th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 2.38 (3rd of 138) | 1.13 (75th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.246 (18th of 138) | 0.273 (13th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.037 (20th of 138) | -0.074 (7th of 138) |
Key players
- Keelon Russell (Alabama): He averages 9.3 yards per attempt on the season, but that has dropped to 7.2 over his last three games.
- Rico Scott (Alabama): He caught 6 passes for 156 yards against Texas A&M in Alabama's last game.
- Yhonzae Pierre (Alabama): He has 3.5 sacks on the season, including one each against Georgia and Tennessee.
- Caleb Woodson (Alabama): He leads this group with 63 tackles, including 30 over the last three games.
- Sam Leavitt (LSU): He has 9 touchdown passes and 1 interception over his last three games, completing 75.2% of his throws.
- Jackson Harris (LSU): He has 317 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns over the last three games.
- Princewill Umanmielen (LSU): He leads LSU's pass rush with 9.0 sacks and 13.0 tackles for loss.
- Jordan Ross (LSU): He is the hot hand up front, with 3.0 sacks over the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Alabama sacks allowed per game | 121st | Alabama gives up 2.88 sacks per game, one of the worst marks in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| LSU sacks per game | 3.88 | That ranks third nationally, and it lines up directly against Alabama's biggest weakness. |
| Alabama takeaways per game | 2.38 | The Tide rank third in forcing turnovers, and Leavitt has 8 interceptions this season. |
| LSU net punting | 135th | LSU nets 34.2 yards per punt, which hands field position to an Alabama team that already ranks eighth in starting field position. |
| Line move | -3.5 to -6 | LSU opened as a 3.5-point favorite, and the market has since moved toward the Tigers. |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers?
LSU is favored by 6 points (LSU -6).
What is the over/under for Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers?
The total is 52.5 points.
When is Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers played?
Tiger Stadium (LA).
Where is the money on Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide: 79% of bets, 48% of the money; LSU Tigers: 21% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: LSU Tigers -6.5: 49% of bets, 46% of the money; Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5: 52% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 52.5: 78% of bets, 83% of the money; Under 52.5: 22% of bets, 17% of the money.