Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction: After BYU shredded it, Ohio State's defense faces a three-happy rebuild
Youngstown State brings back almost nothing from last season, but a VMI transfer who hit six threes in his debut is a fair test for a Buckeye defense that just gave up 94.
| Spread | Ohio State -25.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Ohio State's size and interior scoring should pull away. A Penguins team that lives behind the arc can keep the margin from getting out of hand.
- Linus Holmstrom, 6-of-13 from three in his debut, against a Buckeye perimeter defense that BYU shot 45.8% against.
- Ohio State has moved from -24.5 to -25.5. Youngstown State covered as a 10.5-point underdog in its opener at St. Bonaventure.
A defense with a bad first impression
Ohio State opens its home slate carrying the program's first season-opening loss since 2003. The Buckeyes led BYU 37-34 at halftime on a neutral floor, then gave up 94 points.
The defensive numbers from that night are rough. BYU posted a 64.0% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), and Ohio State's defense ranks 350th of 360 teams in opponent eFG%. Ohio State also forced almost nothing: its forced turnover rate was 11.6%, meaning opponents gave the ball away on about one in nine trips. That ranks 344th. Without turnovers, the Buckeyes have to win this game on their own shooting and a stop or two in the half court.
One game against a strong opponent is a narrow window. Still, the problems showed up in the places Youngstown State wants to attack.
Holmstrom and the three-point plan
The Penguins played the way their roster is built in Monday's 79-71 win at St. Bonaventure. They took 47.8% of their shots from three, 74th nationally, because the inside game wasn't there: they made just 40.0% of their twos, 327th.
Linus Holmstrom made that approach work. The VMI transfer scored 26 points on 6-of-13 from deep and didn't miss a free throw. He shot 39.4% from three at VMI last season, so the opener wasn't a fluke. He is the reason the Penguins can hang around against a big spread. If he gets clean looks against a defense that let BYU hit 45.8% from deep, Youngstown State can keep trading threes for twos.
Kelvin Amoako gives the Penguins a second option inside. He went 5-of-7 from the field for 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The glass is Youngstown's lifeline
A team that misses this many twos needs second chances, and Youngstown State got them. Against St. Bonaventure it grabbed 42.2% of its own misses, a 70th-ranked offensive rebound rate. Ohio State's defensive rebound rate against BYU was 67.7%, 245th.
That edge runs against the size gap. The Buckeyes' minutes-weighted average height is about two and a half inches taller than the Penguins'. Andrija Jelavic, a Kentucky transfer, pulled down nine boards in 19 minutes in the opener. If Ohio State holds Youngstown State to one shot per trip, the Penguins' poor two-point finishing becomes a much bigger problem.
Two rosters built in the portal
Youngstown State is close to a brand-new team. Players on this roster accounted for just 5.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's 15-17 record and numbers say little about this group. Jaiden Haynes is the only starter who didn't transfer in this offseason. Ethan Faulkner, in his third season as head coach, is effectively starting over.
Ohio State kept more, at 33.4% of last season's minutes, and its two returning starters carried the opener. Amare Bynum scored 20 points and hit half of his six threes. John Mobley Jr. handed out seven assists. Mobley left an Oct. 25 exhibition against Butler with an ankle issue, but he played against BYU. Justin Pippen, a Cal transfer, has been reported with a sprained ankle that coach Jake Diebler called not serious. That report is undated, and Pippen scored 12 against BYU. Ohio State's injury listing showed no injuries as of Nov. 5.
Where the number sits
Ohio State is a 25.5-point favorite, up a point from the first line our feed recorded. The total has risen to 155. The last meeting was a rout: Ohio State won 81-47 in Columbus in November 2024.
Both teams' first lines read the same way. Youngstown State covered and went under as an underdog. Ohio State lost outright, failed to cover and went over. The spread now asks whether the Buckeyes' defense was simply beaten by a good BYU team or is a real early-season problem. A three-heavy opponent that rebounds its misses is the right test to find out.
Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes line movement and odds
| Book | Penguins ML | Buckeyes ML | Penguins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2800 | -10000 | — | o154.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +25.5 (-106) | o154.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +2200 | -8000 | +25.5 (-112) | o154.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +25.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +4500 | -15000 | +25.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +3500 | -20000 | +25.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +25.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +25.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 76% of bets, 11% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 24% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -24.5: 52% of bets, 65% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +24.5: 48% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 85% of bets, 57% of the money; Under 153.5: 15% of bets, 43% of the money.
Key players
- Linus Holmstrom (Youngstown State): Scored 26 points on 6-of-13 threes in his debut, with a 156.9 offensive rating.
- Kelvin Amoako (Youngstown State): Posted 14 points and 10 rebounds on 5-of-7 shooting at St. Bonaventure.
- Dom Aekins (Youngstown State): Had seven assists in 34 minutes but shot 4-of-11 from the field.
- Amare Bynum (Ohio State): Scored 20 points against BYU with an 85% effective field goal percentage.
- John Mobley Jr. (Ohio State): Shot 41.1% from three last season and dished seven assists in the opener.
- Justin Pippen (Ohio State): Scored 12 points on 57.1% shooting against BYU despite a reported ankle sprain.
Numbers that matter
| OSU opponent eFG% | 64.0% | BYU's shooting in the opener ranks 350th of 360, the clearest sign of Ohio State's defensive trouble. |
|---|---|---|
| YSU 3-point attempt rate | 47.8% | The Penguins lean on threes because they made just 40.0% of their twos. |
| YSU offensive rebound % | 42.2% | Ranked 70th nationally, second chances are how Youngstown State makes up for its misses inside. |
| YSU returning minutes | 5.2% | Players on this roster played almost none of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
| Current spread | -25.5 | Ohio State's line has risen from -24.5 since our feed first recorded it. |
Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes: quick answers
Who is favored in Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Ohio State is favored by 25.5 points (Ohio State -25.5).
What is the over/under for Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Yes: Youngstown St Penguins opened +24.5 and is now +25.5, and the total moved from 153.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Youngstown St Penguins vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 76% of bets, 11% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 24% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -24.5: 52% of bets, 65% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +24.5: 48% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 85% of bets, 57% of the money; Under 153.5: 15% of bets, 43% of the money.