N Colorado Bears vs Arizona St Sun Devils prediction: Market doubles down on Randy Bennett's Sun Devils after a non-cover

A line moving the other way

Randy Bennett's tenure in Tempe began Monday with a 75-65 win over East Tennessee State. It was a win, not a performance. The Sun Devils closed as 19.25-point favorites, failed to cover, and the game stayed under its total. The coverage afterward kept returning to the same two problems: defense and rebounding.

The market has shrugged that off. Arizona State was -15 when our feed first recorded this game and now sits at -18.5, with the moneyline out to -3800. The total has gone the other direction, from 150.25 down to 145.5. That pairing says bettors expect a lopsided game played slowly, which matches how Arizona State looked in its debut.

Two rosters built from scratch

Last season's records tell you almost nothing here. Arizona State returns just 9.2% of last season's minutes after Bennett replaced Bobby Hurley. Bennett's introduction was delayed by a health scare, but he was on the sideline Monday. Northern Colorado kept more, 25.1% of its minutes, but lost its engine: Quinn Denker averaged 19.2 points last season and is gone, along with three other regular starters.

Steve Smiley, who has run the Bears since 2020, now leans on transfers. Langston Reynolds arrived from Minnesota after averaging 11.6 points there last season. Kaidon Rayfield (UTSA) and Chiante' Tramble (Southern Miss) also joined.

Arizona State's lone returner of note, Bryce Ford, had offseason hip surgery and took part in an Oct. 17 scrimmage against Colorado State; there has been no update on him since, and he did not appear among Monday's contributors. Vijay Wallace, who missed all of last season after a severe leg injury in an exhibition at Texas A&M, has no recent update either. No availability news has surfaced for Northern Colorado.

Murauskas and the slow walk

The Saint Mary's transfer carried Monday's offense. Paulius Murauskas played all 40 minutes for 21 points and 9 rebounds, and he did it without a made three in five tries. He made up for it at the line, shooting 91.7% on free throws. He averaged 18.4 points at Saint Mary's last season, so the volume is real even when the jumper isn't falling.

The bigger shift is tempo. Arizona State played at 61.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 352nd of 360. Last season's Hurley team ran at 70.3. A grind-it-out pace shrinks the number of possessions a big favorite gets to build a margin, which is part of why Monday's game fell short of the spread.

The free throw line may help close that gap. Northern Colorado's defense last season sent opponents to the line often, with an opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 36.6%, 247th nationally. A team with a fresh roster won't necessarily repeat that, but Murauskas attacking the rim is the pressure point to test it.

What Colorado College can't tell you

Northern Colorado's numbers look spectacular: a 117-64 rout and 53.3% shooting from three. That came against an opponent with no Division I rating, so treat those figures as a scrimmage, not a scouting report. The one early read is on rotation: Jeremiah Hammond scored 17 off the bench, and center Hunter Caldwell blocked three shots while stretching the floor.

Where the Bears can make this uncomfortable is beyond the arc. Arizona State allowed 41.2% three-point shooting Monday, 319th nationally, and its defensive rebounding left second chances on the floor. If Northern Colorado's shooters stay hot and crash the glass, a Sun Devil team still learning each other could be stuck winning by single digits again. If the half-court defense tightens, the slow pace becomes a vise on an underdog that needs volume.