Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros prediction: Tarleton State's pickpockets test San Diego's brand-new backcourt
Two first-year coaches and two almost entirely rebuilt rosters make Tarleton's road opener a question of who handles chaos better, and the market has San Diego's home floor doing the heavy lifting.
| Spread | San Diego -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148.5 |
- Expect a game decided inside the arc: both teams barely shot threes in their openers, so finishing and turnovers should swing it.
- Tarleton's ball pressure, forcing turnovers at the 2nd-highest rate in Division I last season, against San Diego's reassembled guards.
- San Diego is a 6-point favorite; the total has slipped from 150.25 to 148 despite Tarleton's 75.5-possession opener.
Two rebuilds, one rating apart
Almost nothing about last season applies tonight. San Diego brings back just 4.3% of last season's minutes under first-year coach JR Blount, the former top assistant at Iowa State. Tarleton State, starting its first season in the UAC under Eric Haut, a former Utah State assistant hired in March, returns 16.4%.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide, and they barely separate these programs anyway. Tarleton finished 222nd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), San Diego 226th. The market still makes the Toreros a 6-point favorite at home.
Both teams won comfortably on Nov. 2, Tarleton 86-60 over Cameron and San Diego 79-62 over Biola, but neither opener came against a rated Division I team. This is the first meeting between the programs and Tarleton's first road game of the season.
Turnovers are Tarleton's weapon
Last season's Texans had an ugly offense but a defense that took the ball away. Their forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) of 24.4% ranked 2nd in the country, and their steal rate ranked 4th. A new staff and new roster could change that identity, but the opener suggested it survived: Tarleton forced turnovers at a 24.0% clip against Cameron.
Leroy Kelly IV is the link. One of the few returners, he averaged 2.0 steals last season in a part-time role and opened this one with 3 steals, 10 rebounds and 5 assists. Brett Freeman added 3 steals off the bench.
San Diego's guards are all new to each other. Davion Hill arrived from Ball State, Dusty Stromer from Grand Canyon, and Marqui Worthy Jr. from UC Riverside, where he averaged 16.2 points last season. The Toreros turned it over on 17.4% of possessions in their opener, a middling mark. If that number climbs against real pressure, the spread gets tight.
A game played inside the arc
Neither team wanted the 3-point line in its opener. Tarleton took threes on 27.7% of its shots, 339th nationally; San Diego was even lower, 351st. Neither made them much either, with San Diego hitting 26.7% from deep.
For the Toreros that is a sharp break from last season, when Toneari Lane made 85 threes at a 44% clip. He's gone, and so is most of that perimeter shooting. Sekou Konneh now carries the load inside: 15 points on 63.6% shooting against Biola.
Tarleton has more shooting on the roster than it showed. Franck Emmou hit 42% of his threes at Texas State last season, and Preseason All-UAC pick Caleb Blackwell made 36.4% at UTEP. Jac Mani went perfect from the floor for 17 points in 21 minutes in the opener. An ankle issue was noted for him in preseason, and his current status hasn't been confirmed.
Fouls, pace and a falling total
San Diego's opener came with a warning sign: Biola got to the line at a free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 53.8%, 325th nationally. Fouling that often against a Tarleton team that lives on drives would hand the Texans free points and slow the game down.
Pace is the other tension. Tarleton played at 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes against Cameron, San Diego at 68. The total has moved from 150.25, the first number our feed recorded, down to 148, a sign the market expects the Toreros' slower half-court game, and two poor-shooting teams, to hold the score down. A steady stream of Tarleton steals would push it the other way. Tip is 9:30 p.m. Eastern at Jenny Craig Pavilion.
Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros line movement and odds
| Book | Texans ML | Toreros ML | Texans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +260 | -325 | +7.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +245 | -335 | +6.5 (-107) | o148.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +260 | -325 | +7.5 (-108) | o147.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +270 | -340 | +7.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +260 | -330 | +7.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +255 | -320 | +7.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +250 | -325 | +6.5 (-105) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +250 | -320 | +7.5 (-110) | o147 (-110) |
Where the money is on Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tarleton State Texans: 55% of bets, 76% of the money; San Diego Toreros: 45% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Diego Toreros -8.5: 21% of bets, 3% of the money; Tarleton State Texans +8.5: 79% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 54% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 148.5: 46% of bets, 36% of the money.
Key players
- Leroy Kelly IV (Tarleton State): Filled the box score in the opener with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals.
- Jac Mani (Tarleton State): Scored 17 points in 21 minutes against Cameron without missing a shot, though a preseason ankle issue was noted and his status is unconfirmed.
- Caleb Blackwell (Tarleton State): Averaged 10.6 points and shot 36.4% from three at UTEP last season.
- Franck Emmou (Tarleton State): Hit 42% of his threes at Texas State last season and handed out 5 assists in the opener.
- Sekou Konneh (San Diego): Led the Toreros with 15 points and 7 rebounds on a 29.7% usage rate against Biola.
- Dusty Stromer (San Diego): Posted 12 points, 6 rebounds and 3 steals in 24 minutes in the opener.
- Davion Hill (San Diego): Averaged 14.0 points at Ball State last season and had 9 points and 4 assists in his San Diego debut.
- Marqui Worthy Jr. (San Diego): Averaged 16.2 points in 34.9 minutes a night at UC Riverside last season.
Numbers that matter
| San Diego returning minutes | 4.3% | The Toreros are essentially a new team, so last season's ratings say little about them. |
|---|---|---|
| Tarleton forced turnover rate, last season | 24.4% | Ranked 2nd nationally, and the Texans forced 24.0% in their opener. |
| San Diego opponent free throw rate, opener | 53.8% | Ranked 325th; fouling at that rate would feed Tarleton's drives. |
| Spread | -6 | San Diego favored at home, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 148 | Down from 150.25 when first recorded. |
Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros: quick answers
Who is favored in Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros?
San Diego is favored by 7.5 points (San Diego -7.5).
What is the over/under for Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros?
The total is 148.5 points.
When is Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros?
Yes: Tarleton State Texans opened +5.5 and is now +7.5, and the total moved from 150.5 to 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tarleton State Texans vs San Diego Toreros?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tarleton State Texans: 55% of bets, 76% of the money; San Diego Toreros: 45% of bets, 24% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Diego Toreros -8.5: 21% of bets, 3% of the money; Tarleton State Texans +8.5: 79% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 54% of bets, 64% of the money; Under 148.5: 46% of bets, 36% of the money.