North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons prediction: North Dakota State tries to regroup from a Saint Mary's rout at USF
Two days after a 105-64 beating, the rebuilt Bison face a San Francisco team that returns almost nothing and forced turnovers in bunches in its opener.
| Spread | San Francisco -8.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 145.5 |
- USF should control a slow game at home if its pressure rattles a Bison backcourt still learning to play together on short rest.
- Dylan Bordon against Andy Stefonowicz: USF's high-usage creator versus the one NDSU starter who returns from last season's 27-8 team.
- USF moved from -7.25 to -9.5 since our feed first saw the game; NDSU ranks 273rd and USF 298th in pace.
A rout and a quick turnaround
North Dakota State came west as the Summit League's preseason favorite and left Saint Mary's on Wednesday with a 105-64 loss. Saint Mary's, rated 23rd nationally by adjusted net efficiency, led 45-26 at halftime and never let up. That one night drives most of the Bison's early defensive numbers, including an opponent effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 67.0% that ranks 356th of 360.
The schedule doesn't offer much time to fix it. NDSU gets two days of rest before Friday's 10 p.m. ET tip at the War Memorial, the middle stop of a three-game California trip that ends at Cal State Bakersfield on Nov. 8. San Francisco has had four days since its opener.
Two rosters starting from scratch
Neither team looks much like it did last season. NDSU returns 23.2% of last season's minutes, with Stefonowicz the only starter back among 13 newcomers. That makes last season's 27-8 record and Summit tournament title a loose guide at best, though David Richman's program earned 13 of 32 first-place votes in the preseason poll.
USF's rebuild is even more complete. The Dons return just 1.4% of last season's minutes after Ryan Beasley left for Washington and Tyrone Riley IV for Oregon. Chris Gerlufsen, in his fifth season, also gets forward Ndewedo Newbury back after he missed all of last season with an injury. The new group beat Radford 76-62 on Monday.
Pressure and the foul line
The clearest edge for San Francisco in its opener came from forcing mistakes. The Dons forced turnovers on 28.8% of Radford's possessions, 23rd nationally, while giving the ball away on 13.2% of their own. NDSU's turnover rate of 17.6% sits 185th, and its point guard, Stefonowicz, is averaging 5.0 assists.
USF also lived at the line against Radford, posting a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 61.4%, 22nd in the country. That runs into a Bison defense that has kept opponents off the stripe, ranking 28th in opponent free throw rate. Volume may not help the Dons much anyway: they made 60.0% of their free throws, 288th nationally.
Who carries each side
Bordon ran everything for USF in the opener, scoring 20 points with seven assists on a 27.4% usage rate. Center Ismaila Diagne, who played 6.9 minutes a game at Gonzaga last season, added 16 points and 11 rebounds. Gustav Knudsen logged 37 minutes with two blocks.
NDSU's scoring is spread thin across new faces. Bench guard Max Iversen has hit 4 of 6 threes, and Long Beach State transfer Rob Diaz III is averaging 10.5 points. Stefonowicz, a 90.3% free throw shooter last season, is the steadiest hand the Bison have.
Where the number sits
San Francisco is favored by 9.5 with a total of 146.5, and the spread has climbed from -7.25 while the total hasn't moved. Both teams play slowly: NDSU's pace of 68 possessions per 40 minutes ranks 273rd, and USF's 67 ranks 298th. The Dons' opener stayed under a closing total of 154.5, while NDSU's game at Saint Mary's went over 148.5 and the Bison failed to cover as 12.5-point underdogs.
North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons line movement and odds
| Book | Bison ML | Dons ML | Bison spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +320 | -425 | +8.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +300 | -400 | +8.5 (-117) | o145.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +320 | -410 | +8.5 (-112) | o145.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +320 | -425 | +8.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +310 | -400 | +8.5 (-110) | o145 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +315 | -410 | +8.5 (-106) | o145.5 (-108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -400 | +8.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +310 | -400 | +8.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Dakota St Bison: 48% of bets, 43% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 52% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -9.5: 30% of bets, 45% of the money; North Dakota St Bison +9.5: 70% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 80% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 144.5: 20% of bets, 27% of the money.
Key players
- Andy Stefonowicz (North Dakota State): He is averaging 10.5 points and 5.0 assists after shooting 37.7% from three last season.
- Max Iversen (North Dakota State): He leads the Bison at 11.0 points per game while making 4 of 6 threes.
- Rob Diaz III (North Dakota State): He is scoring 10.5 points per game on a team-high 24.2% usage rate.
- Dylan Bordon (San Francisco): He scored 20 points with seven assists against Radford on a 27.4% usage rate.
- Ismaila Diagne (San Francisco): He posted 16 points and 11 rebounds in the opener after playing 6.9 minutes a game at Gonzaga last season.
- Ben Oosterbaan (San Francisco): He added 10 points and three steals against Radford in 32 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| USF forced turnover rate | 28.8% | Ranks 23rd nationally after the opener and tests a Bison backcourt with a 17.6% turnover rate. |
|---|---|---|
| USF returning minutes | 1.4% | The Dons are almost entirely new, so last season's numbers say little about them. |
| NDSU opponent eFG% | 67.0% | Ranks 356th of 360, driven largely by Wednesday's loss at Saint Mary's. |
| Spread first seen | -7.25 | The line has since moved to USF -9.5 while the total held at 146.5. |
| USF free throw rate | 61.4% | Ranks 22nd, though the Dons made just 60.0% of their free throws. |
North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons: quick answers
Who is favored in North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons?
San Francisco is favored by 8.5 points (San Francisco -8.5).
What is the over/under for North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons?
The total is 145.5 points.
When is North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons?
Yes: North Dakota St Bison opened +6.5 and is now +8.5, and the total moved from 146.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on North Dakota St Bison vs San Francisco Dons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Dakota St Bison: 48% of bets, 43% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 52% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -9.5: 30% of bets, 45% of the money; North Dakota St Bison +9.5: 70% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 80% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 144.5: 20% of bets, 27% of the money.