CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats prediction: Kansas State's rebuilt shooting corps needs to find range against Northridge
Casey Alexander's new Wildcats live behind the arc, and a Cal State Northridge team still finding its own offense may give them the room to prove it.
| Spread | Kansas State -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 164.75 |
- Expect K-State to fire away from three. If its transfer shooters regress to last season's form, the Wildcats should pull clear of a Northridge offense still finding itself.
- Watch K-State's three-point shooting against Northridge's perimeter defense; the Wildcats took 52.8% of their shots from deep in a 68-66 opening loss.
- Kansas State is a 10.25-point favorite, unchanged, but the total climbed from 159.25 to 164.0 even though both teams' openers went under.
A roster built to shoot
Casey Alexander's first Kansas State team is close to a blank slate. Players on the roster account for just 5.0% of last season's minutes, and all five starters in the opener were making their first career starts at K-State. That debut ended in a 68-66 home loss as a 10.75-point favorite.
The shot chart showed the plan. K-State took 52.8% of its field goal attempts from three, 31st-most in Division I, and made only 28.6% of them. That number should rise. Brandon Rechsteiner hit 39.7% from deep at Colorado State last season, and Jaden Schutt hit 38.5% at Virginia Tech.
Northridge allowed opponents to take 48.6% of their shots from three last season, the 7th-highest share in the country. Be careful with that, though. The Matadors bring back only 17.1% of last season's minutes, so last year's defense says little about this group.
Northridge's offense starts over
The Matadors lost 79-67 at Wichita State on Wednesday but covered as 15.5-point underdogs. The defense held up. The offense did not. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 40.2%, 324th of 360, and they made 23.8% of their threes.
Josiah Davis is the one constant. He was the lone regular back from last season's 20-14 team, when he averaged 15.9 points while starting every game, and he again ran the offense in the opener. Portland transfer Mikah Ballew scored 17. Oregon State transfer Keziah Ekissi went 3 of 3 from deep off the bench, a spark worth watching if Northridge needs to chase.
The Matadors also gave K-State nothing to worry about with the ball. Their forced turnover rate of 3.9% ranked dead last in the country, so the Wildcats' own ball security shouldn't be tested.
Who carries Kansas State
The most productive Wildcat in the opener didn't start. Pape N'Diaye scored 18 points in 18 minutes off the bench, and whether that earns him more minutes here is unconfirmed. Georgetown transfer Isaiah Abraham was the most efficient starter, making 6 of 7 shots.
The one injury note is old. Senior forward Timo Malovec was listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury as of Oct. 22, with no update since.
Tempo and the total
The total has moved more than anything else, rising from 159.25 to 164.0 while the spread held at 10.25. That is a bet on pace. Northridge played at 76 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 74th-fastest. K-State crawled at 66.5, 306th.
Last season both programs ran among the fastest tempos in the country, but both rosters have turned over almost completely, so that history carries little weight. Both openers stayed under. With a new coach in Manhattan, the opening game is the best evidence of how K-State wants to play.
CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Matadors ML | Wildcats ML | Matadors spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-105) | o164.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +480 | -770 | +11.5 (-105) | o164.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +525 | -750 | +12.5 (-120) | o164.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +12.5 (-120) | o164.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +525 | -750 | +12 (-110) | o164.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +500 | -720 | +11.5 (-112) | o163.5 (-114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +475 | -750 | +11.5 (-105) | o164.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +500 | -700 | +12 (-110) | o164.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: CSU Northridge Matadors: 46% of bets, 9% of the money; Kansas St Wildcats: 54% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas St Wildcats -10.5: 60% of bets, 83% of the money; CSU Northridge Matadors +10.5: 40% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 165.5: 44% of bets, 74% of the money; Under 165.5: 56% of bets, 26% of the money.
Key players
- Brandon Rechsteiner (Kansas State): He shot 39.7% from three last season at Colorado State and led K-State with a 27.4% usage rate in the opener.
- Pape N'Diaye (Kansas State): He scored 18 points with 8 rebounds in 18 minutes off the bench in the opener.
- Isaiah Abraham (Kansas State): He scored 16 points on 6-of-7 shooting in his K-State debut.
- Josiah Davis (Cal State Northridge): He averaged 15.9 points and 7.4 assists last season and handed out 6 assists at Wichita State.
- Mikah Ballew (Cal State Northridge): He led Northridge with 17 points in the opener but made just 1 of 7 threes.
- Keziah Ekissi (Cal State Northridge): He scored 11 points in 15 minutes off the bench, hitting 3 of 3 from deep.
Numbers that matter
| K-State 3-point attempt rate | 52.8% | The 31st-highest share in Division I, so the Wildcats' shooting will likely decide the margin. |
|---|---|---|
| K-State returning minutes | 5.0% | Almost nothing from last season's 12-20 team remains, so last season's numbers are a poor guide. |
| Northridge effective FG% | 40.2% | It ranked 324th of 360 after the opener at Wichita State. |
| Total movement | 164.0 | Up from 159.25 when our feed first saw the game, even though both openers went under. |
| Northridge forced turnover rate | 3.9% | Last in the country, which leaves K-State's ball handlers largely untested. |
CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats?
Kansas State is favored by 10.5 points (Kansas State -10.5).
What is the over/under for CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats?
The total is 164.75 points.
When is CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats?
Yes: CSU Northridge Matadors opened +10.5 and is now +11.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 164.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on CSU Northridge Matadors vs Kansas St Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: CSU Northridge Matadors: 46% of bets, 9% of the money; Kansas St Wildcats: 54% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas St Wildcats -10.5: 60% of bets, 83% of the money; CSU Northridge Matadors +10.5: 40% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 165.5: 44% of bets, 74% of the money; Under 165.5: 56% of bets, 26% of the money.