Omaha Mavericks vs BYU Cougars prediction: BYU lays 31.5, but its opener defense left the rim unguarded

A rim nobody guarded

BYU's home opener comes with a ranking attached and a question nobody expected. The No. 25 Cougars scored 94 on Ohio State on Monday and still gave up 83. Now they lay 31.5 points to an Omaha roster still learning itself, and a margin that large depends less on Robert Wright III than on whether BYU can protect the rim.

The Buckeyes made 65.5% of their twos, a rate that ranks 339th of 360 teams after one week. BYU didn't block a single shot. That is a sharp turn from last season, when BYU ranked 57th in block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt). Keba Keita, the center who anchored that interior, is gone, and the frontcourt now leans on forwards like Jaxon Kohler and Tyler Betsey.

One game is a small sample, and Ohio State rated 28th by adjusted net efficiency. Omaha is a much softer test. It is also the first chance to see whether Monday was an outlier or a preview.

Wright, then the shooters

Wright scored 33 points against Ohio State and made 4-of-5 from three. He used 32.6% of BYU's possessions while on the floor, and with AJ Dybantsa gone to the NBA, the offense clearly runs through him.

The help arrived by transfer. Betsey, from Syracuse, also went 4 of 5 from deep. Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler struggled from outside but still scored in volume. The quieter edge is ball security: BYU turned it over on 11.6% of its possessions, 34th nationally. That kind of care starves an opponent of easy offense, and Omaha will need easy offense to stay close.

Omaha starts from almost zero

Chris Crutchfield had to replace seven seniors plus several portal departures, and it shows. Omaha returns 19.8% of last season's minutes. Paul Djobet left for Texas State and Lance Waddles for Campbell. Last season's 16-17 team, which finished 257th in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), says little about this one.

The new name to know is Cahmai Crosby. The North Texas transfer scored 21 in the opener after averaging 2.7 points last season. Grant Stubblefield is the main holdover in the backcourt.

The caution: Omaha's 73-65 win came against Mid-America Christian, an NAIA team, so its season stats measure nothing against Division I competition. Even so, Omaha forced turnovers on 10.3% of possessions and made 58.1% of its free throws in that game. Neither is a promising sign against a team that protects the ball like BYU. This is the first-ever meeting between the programs.

Kohler cleared, Baker close

Kohler's spot in the lineup rests on a court order. A preliminary injunction issued Oct. 20 in Glancey v. NCAA keeps him eligible through the end of this season. The NCAA is appealing, and no appellate ruling had come down as of Friday. He started against Ohio State and scored 11.

Dawson Baker, who tore his ACL in BYU's win over Miami last Thanksgiving week, was inactive for the opener but went through pregame warmups. BYU hasn't said whether he plays Friday. Freshman Brooks Bahr's 14 minutes on Monday suggest he has already earned a rotation spot.

What the number asks

The spread has moved toward BYU since our feed first saw it at -29.25. The total has edged up to 161.5. On Monday, BYU covered as a 3.5-point favorite and the game went over a 160.5 total, though BYU trailed at halftime before pulling away.

Neither team played fast in its opener, so a big total and a big spread both lean on efficiency rather than extra possessions. If BYU's interior defense looks like it did against Ohio State, Omaha can keep scoring even while losing badly. If the Cougars tighten up, their shooting does the rest.