Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction: Interim coach, 7-2 center: Central Michigan tests Youngstown State's new shooters
A program with its head coach on leave hosts a rebuilt Penguins roster that fires threes and struggles to finish inside or hold the defensive glass.
Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Youngstown St Penguins +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 152.5.
| Spread | Central Michigan -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 152 |
- Expect Youngstown State to live behind the arc while Central Michigan works the offensive glass, with an interim coach on the Chippewas' bench.
- Linus Holmstrom's 43.5% three-point shooting against a Central Michigan defense that has allowed 30.4% from deep.
- Central Michigan moved from -2.5 to -3.5, but Youngstown State covered both of its games, including a 25.5-point spread at Ohio State.
A bench in flux
Central Michigan placed head coach Andy Bronkema on leave on Nov. 5 and gave no reason. Associate head coach Raymoan McAfee took over as interim head coach that day, and the athletic director hasn't said how long Bronkema will be away. The Chippewas kept winning anyway, routing Alma 93-50 in Friday's home opener, a game that carried no betting line.
The 2-0 start deserves some skepticism. The other win came at UL Monroe, which ranks 350th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Central Michigan trailed there at halftime before escaping 83-78. This is a team picked last in the 12-team MAC preseason poll.
Youngstown State is close to a brand-new team. Only 5.2% of last season's minutes return, and Jaiden Haynes is the lone holdover. That makes last season's numbers a poor guide, so the two games the Penguins have played matter more. They won 79-71 at St. Bonaventure as a 10.5-point underdog, then lost 89-65 at Ohio State. Tuesday is their third straight road game.
Threes against a wall
The Penguins shoot first and ask later: 49.2% of their field goal attempts are threes, 56th-most nationally. That habit makes sense, because inside the arc they have made just 43.1% of their twos, 338th in Division I. Both numbers come from two games, so treat them as early signals.
Central Michigan's defense is built to make that interior weakness worse. Opponents have made 39.0% of their twos against the Chippewas (47th), and the block rate ranks 40th. The new anchor is Conrad Luczynski, a 7-2 senior transfer from Lenoir-Rhyne who is blocking 2.5 shots a game.
So the game likely runs through Linus Holmstrom. The VMI transfer is averaging 19.0 points and scored 26 in the opener at St. Bonaventure. If he and the rest of the perimeter keep hitting, Luczynski matters less. If they cool off, Youngstown State has little to fall back on.
Second chances in Mount Pleasant
The clearest mismatch is on the glass. Central Michigan rebounds 42.6% of its own misses, 43rd nationally. Youngstown State has secured only 63.0% of opponents' misses, which ranks 315th.
The Chippewas are also the bigger team, with Keenan Garner and Luczynski each pulling down 7.0 rebounds a game. Youngstown State's lineup is guard-heavy, and its block rate ranks 360th, so it offers little resistance at the rim either. Extra possessions are how Central Michigan can offset its own sloppiness: its turnover rate ranks 268th.
Where the number sits
The market has nudged toward the home team. Central Michigan opened at -2.5 in our feed and now sits at -3.5 across 10 books, with the total at 152.5.
Youngstown State's record against the spread points the other way. The Penguins have covered both games, beating the number by double digits at St. Bonaventure. The two teams have met 11 times since 1985. Central Michigan leads the series 7-4, but Youngstown State won the last two meetings.
Availability looks clean. No injuries, suspensions or eligibility issues have surfaced for either team. The bigger unknown is how Central Michigan handles its first real test under McAfee.
Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas line movement and odds
| Book | Penguins ML | Chippewas ML | Penguins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +128 | -159 | +2.5 (-108) | o152.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | +3.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 | +3.5 (-115) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +134 | -162 | +3.5 (-112) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -160 | +2.5 (-105) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 | +3 (-110) | o152 (-110) |
Where the money is on Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 38% of bets, 35% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas: 62% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -2.5: 50% of bets, 36% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +2.5: 50% of bets, 64% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 39% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 152.5: 62% of bets, 23% of the money.
Key players
- Phat Phat Brooks (Central Michigan): Averaging 17.5 points with an 85.3% effective field goal percentage, a huge jump from his 43.2% mark last season.
- Conrad Luczynski (Central Michigan): The 7-2 transfer is blocking 2.5 shots a game and is the centerpiece of Central Michigan's interior defense.
- Keenan Garner (Central Michigan): Scored 15 in the exhibition rout of North Park and is grabbing 7.0 rebounds a game.
- Linus Holmstrom (Youngstown State): The VMI transfer is averaging 19.0 points and hitting 43.5% from three on 23 attempts.
- Dom Aekins (Youngstown State): Handing out 6.0 assists per game, with a team-high usage among the starters at 24.4%.
- Kelvin Amoako (Youngstown State): Averaging 7.5 rebounds and shooting 60% from the field, the Penguins' best answer on the glass.
Numbers that matter
| CMU offensive rebound rate | 42.6% | Ranks 43rd nationally and goes against a Youngstown State defensive rebounding unit ranked 315th. |
|---|---|---|
| YSU 3-point attempt rate | 49.2% | Nearly half of the Penguins' shots are threes, 56th-most in Division I. |
| CMU opponent 2-point % | 39.0% | Ranks 47th and challenges a Youngstown State team making 43.1% of its twos. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Central Michigan moved up from -2.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas: quick answers
What was the final score of Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Youngstown St Penguins 78, Central Michigan Chippewas 91 (final). Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Youngstown St Penguins +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 152.5.
Who is favored in Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Central Michigan is favored by 3.5 points (Central Michigan -3.5).
What is the over/under for Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
The total is 152 points.
When is Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
Yes: Youngstown St Penguins opened +2.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 152.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Youngstown St Penguins vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 38% of bets, 35% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas: 62% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Central Michigan Chippewas -2.5: 50% of bets, 36% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +2.5: 50% of bets, 64% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 39% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 152.5: 62% of bets, 23% of the money.