Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons prediction: San Francisco's rebuilt Dons live at the line against Montana
A San Francisco roster built almost entirely from scratch draws fouls and crashes the glass, and Montana has to keep it from turning a tight game into an 11.5-point one.
Montana Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Montana Grizzlies +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
| Spread | San Francisco -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 147.5 |
- Expect San Francisco to slow the game, attack the offensive glass and get to the line while Montana's new guards hunt threes.
- Watch San Francisco's offensive rebounders against Montana's defensive rebounding, one of the few Grizzlies strengths that also showed up last season.
- San Francisco is favored by 11.5, up from 10 when our feed first saw it; Montana covered as a 19.25-point underdog at Oregon.
A new Dons team that draws fouls
San Francisco returns just 1.4% of last season's minutes, so last year's team tells you almost nothing about this one. Chris Gerlufsen rebuilt with 14 new players, most of them freshmen, and the early identity is physical. The Dons are 2-0 and never trailed in their opener against Radford.
The clearest trait is the whistle. San Francisco's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 59.4%, ninth in Division I. The catch comes at the stripe, where the Dons make 63.5% of their attempts, which ranks 287th. Montana's defense has been middling at keeping opponents off the line. If San Francisco converts its trips, it builds the margin this spread asks for. If it keeps missing, Montana hangs around.
Second chances favor the Dons
San Francisco grabs 40.0% of its own misses, 67th nationally. Gonzaga transfer Ismaila Diagne leads that effort at 8.5 rebounds a game. Freshman Gustav Knudsen adds rim protection with 2.5 blocks a game.
Montana's answer is its defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies finish 76.8% of opponents' misses, 62nd, and they ranked near the same spot last season. The Dons have been loose on their own glass. Montana rarely punishes that, though, ranking 305th in offensive rebound rate, so the extra possessions in this game figure to belong mostly to San Francisco.
Montana's reshuffled roster
Montana returns 33.0% of last season's minutes. It also lost Money Williams, who scored 20.6 points a game and is now at Boston College. Travis DeCuire has spread the scoring around. Five Grizzlies average at least 10 points, led by Cal State Dominguez Hills transfer Jalen Brown at 19.0.
Semaj Carter has been the bench spark, hitting 7 of 12 threes. Tyler Thompson, the top returner, has turned distributor at 5.0 assists a game.
The concern is up front. Starting forward Kenyon Aquino and reserve big man Amari Jedkins both missed the Nov. 2 opener at Oregon. There has been no report since on whether either plays tonight. Connor Dick made his first career start in their place and has struggled to score. Against a San Francisco team that wins on the glass, Aquino's status matters more than any shooting number.
Tempo and the number
Montana plays at 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes. San Francisco plays at 66.8, among the slowest in the country, and the Dons were slow last season too. Expect the home team to try to drag this into a half-court game, which is part of why the total sits at 148.5.
The market has moved toward San Francisco, from -10 to -11.5. Montana's best evidence against that is the opener: it lost 87-69 at Oregon but covered as a 19.25-point underdog. Its season shooting numbers, including a 61.5% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), lean heavily on a 105-40 rout of Salish Kootenai, so treat them with caution.
San Francisco's best result came against North Dakota State, a 79-70 win. The Dons lead the all-time series 8-1, and they won the last meeting here 71-67 in December 2024.
Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons line movement and odds
| Book | Grizzlies ML | Dons ML | Grizzlies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +500 | -700 | +11.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +475 | -715 | +11.5 (-113) | o147.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-112) | o147.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +11.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-120) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +520 | -750 | +11.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +475 | -700 | +11.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Montana Grizzlies: 44% of bets, 7% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 56% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -11.5: 45% of bets, 45% of the money; Montana Grizzlies +11.5: 55% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 88% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 146.5: 13% of bets, 11% of the money.
Key players
- Ben Oosterbaan (San Francisco): Leads the Dons at 16.0 points a game and scored 22 against North Dakota State.
- Andrew Hilman (San Francisco): Has scored 12.5 points a game off the bench, including 22 against North Dakota State.
- Dylan Bordon (San Francisco): Averages 5.5 assists but has made only 2 of 11 threes.
- Ismaila Diagne (San Francisco): Pulls down 8.5 rebounds a game as the anchor of the Dons' offensive glass work.
- Tyler Thompson (Montana): Averages 5.0 assists and 3.5 steals after shooting 40.1% from three last season.
- Semaj Carter (Montana): Has hit 7 of 12 threes and carries a team-high 27.2% usage rate.
- Jordan Clark (Montana): Scores 12.0 points a game but has made just 3 of 11 threes.
- Clayton Mpiana (Montana): Grabs 7.0 rebounds a game and went 7 of 8 from the field against Salish Kootenai.
Numbers that matter
| San Francisco free throw rate | 59.4% | Ninth in Division I, the clearest trait of the rebuilt Dons. |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco free throw % | 63.5% | Ranks 287th, so all those trips to the line don't automatically turn into points. |
| San Francisco offensive rebound % | 40.0% | Ranks 67th and runs into a Montana defensive rebounding unit ranked 62nd. |
| San Francisco returning minutes | 1.4% | Almost nothing is left from last season's 17-16 team. |
| Spread | -11.5 | Moved toward San Francisco from -10 when our feed first saw the game. |
Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons: quick answers
What was the final score of Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
Montana Grizzlies 58, San Francisco Dons 63 (final). Montana Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Montana Grizzlies +11.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
Who is favored in Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
San Francisco is favored by 11.5 points (San Francisco -11.5).
What is the over/under for Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
The total is 147.5 points.
When is Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
Yes: Montana Grizzlies opened +10.5 and is now +11.5, and the total is still 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Montana Grizzlies vs San Francisco Dons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Montana Grizzlies: 44% of bets, 7% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 56% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -11.5: 45% of bets, 45% of the money; Montana Grizzlies +11.5: 55% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 88% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 146.5: 13% of bets, 11% of the money.