UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction: TCU's ball hawks face a ULM team rebuilt from nothing
TCU forces turnovers at an elite rate, and UL Monroe is a rebuilt roster under a first-year coach, so the possession battle decides whether the Warhawks reach a 35.5-point number.
UL Monroe Warhawks covered the closing spread (UL Monroe Warhawks +33.5). The game went over the closing total of 160.5.
| Spread | TCU -33.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 160 |
- TCU's pressure should produce runs of live-ball turnovers; UL Monroe's best hope is extra possessions on the offensive glass.
- Brock Harding and TCU's ball pressure against a ULM backcourt led by Quaran McPherson and Dayjaun Anderson.
- TCU moved from -33 to -33.5 and the total from 157 to 160.0; the Frogs covered -29.5 and -26.5 in their two games.
Every possession is a risk
TCU has opened the season by taking the ball away. The Horned Frogs force turnovers on 28.8% of opponent possessions, 8th in Division I, and their steal rate of 21.2% ranks 2nd. Two blowouts of Lindenwood and Southern are a small sample, but the pattern is the point: Jamie Dixon's team turns defense into transition offense.
UL Monroe isn't built to handle that. The Warhawks give the ball away on 18.5% of possessions (turnover rate, per 100 possessions), 218th nationally. Their guards carry most of the load, and the extra ball handlers around them are still finding their touch. Phillip Tillman shoots 27.3% from the floor, and Mike White is at 28.6%.
ULM can also create some havoc of its own. Tillman averages 3.7 steals a game, and the team's steal rate ranks 69th. Against a TCU guard group with Harding averaging 8.5 assists, those gambles can turn into open looks the other way.
The glass is ULM's opening
If there's a place the Warhawks can steal possessions back, it's the offensive boards. ULM rebounds 40.9% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), 60th in the country. TCU's defensive rebounding is the soft spot in an otherwise dominant start: the Frogs grab 64.2% of opponent misses, 300th.
That edge has limits. Second chances only matter if the first shots go up, and ULM's interior defense gives the advantage right back. Opponents are making 60.8% of their twos against the Warhawks, 330th nationally. TCU attacks the paint and the line, with a free throw rate that ranks 16th, and Xavier Edmonds averages 8.0 rebounds in 17.5 minutes.
A roster built from scratch
Last season's ULM numbers are close to useless here. Players on this roster played 0.1% of the program's minutes last season, and first-year coach Ryan Cross brought in 14 newcomers. The team that went 4-28 is gone, including leading scorer Krystian Lewis, now at Tulane.
Cross's offense runs through two UAB transfers. McPherson scores 17.7 points a game and has made 9 of 17 threes. Anderson adds 15.7 a night but is shooting 26.9% from deep on 26 attempts, a volume that can swing a half either way.
TCU has turned over its roster too, with 10 newcomers, but it returns about half of last season's minutes. Harding, Edmonds, Micah Robinson and Tanner Toolson are back from a 23-12 team. The biggest addition just arrived on the floor: Long Beach State transfer Gavin Sykes, sidelined four weeks with an ankle injury, debuted off the bench with 11 points against Southern on Nov. 7. He averaged 19.4 points at Long Beach State last season.
A big number getting bigger
A big number, barely bigger The market has only moved one way, though not by much. TCU was -33 when our feed first saw the game and now sits at -33.5, with the total climbing from 157 to 160.0. Note the line has come in from the -35.5 we had when this preview was first written.
The Frogs have earned that respect so far. They beat Lindenwood 98-59 as 29.5-point favorites and Southern 106-54 as 26.5-point favorites, and both games went over. Robinson has been the sharpest scorer, averaging 18.5 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three.
The total rests on tempo, and both teams like to run. ULM plays at 75.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 67th nationally, and TCU is 93rd at 73.8. The open question with a spread this size is the final 10 minutes: Dixon's bench will be on the floor, and that's where a cover or a backdoor gets decided.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs line movement and odds
| Book | Warhawks ML | Frogs ML | Warhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +33.5 (-108) | o160.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +33.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +9000 | -50000 | +33.5 (-110) | o160 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o160 (-110) |
Where the money is on UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe Warhawks: 96% of bets, 19% of the money; TCU Horned Frogs: 4% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: TCU Horned Frogs -33.5: 74% of bets, 67% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +33.5: 27% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 54% of bets, 27% of the money; Under 159.5: 46% of bets, 73% of the money.
Key players
- Micah Robinson (TCU): Leads TCU with 18.5 points per game and has hit 6 of 8 threes.
- Brock Harding (TCU): Averaging 8.5 assists, including 12 against Southern.
- Xavier Edmonds (TCU): Carries a team-high 29.4% usage rate and averages 8.0 rebounds in 17.5 minutes.
- Gavin Sykes (TCU): Scored 11 off the bench in his TCU debut after averaging 19.4 points at Long Beach State last season.
- Quaran McPherson (UL Monroe): Leads ULM at 17.7 points per game and is 9 of 17 from three.
- Dayjaun Anderson (UL Monroe): Scores 15.7 per game but is shooting 26.9% from three.
- Phillip Tillman (UL Monroe): Averages 3.7 steals while shooting 27.3% from the floor.
Numbers that matter
| TCU forced turnover rate | 28.8% | 8th nationally, aimed at a ULM offense ranked 218th in turnover rate. |
|---|---|---|
| TCU steal rate | 21.2% | 2nd in Division I, the engine behind TCU's transition scoring. |
| ULM offensive rebound rate | 40.9% | 60th nationally, against a TCU defensive rebounding rate that ranks 300th. |
| ULM returning minutes | 0.1% | Last season's 4-28 team is effectively gone under first-year coach Ryan Cross. |
| Spread | -35.5 | Moved from -33 toward TCU since our feed first saw the game. |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs: quick answers
What was the final score of UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
UL Monroe Warhawks 92, TCU Horned Frogs 100 (final). UL Monroe Warhawks covered the closing spread (UL Monroe Warhawks +33.5). The game went over the closing total of 160.5.
Who is favored in UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
TCU is favored by 33.5 points (TCU -33.5).
What is the over/under for UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
The total is 160 points.
When is UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
No: UL Monroe Warhawks has stayed at +33.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 160.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UL Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe Warhawks: 96% of bets, 19% of the money; TCU Horned Frogs: 4% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: TCU Horned Frogs -33.5: 74% of bets, 67% of the money; UL Monroe Warhawks +33.5: 27% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 54% of bets, 27% of the money; Under 159.5: 46% of bets, 73% of the money.