Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars prediction: BYU's shooters get a Queens defense that has found no stops
No. 23 BYU has opened the season as one of the country's best shooting teams, and Queens has started it as one of the worst at guarding the shot.
Queens University Royals covered the closing spread (Queens University Royals +28.5). The game went under the closing total of 181.5.
| Spread | BYU -28.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 181.5 |
- BYU's shooting and offensive rebounding should open a wide gap early, while Queens' pace and Nasir Mann's scoring decide how wide it gets.
- Mann against BYU's wings: he has hit 10 of 18 threes, and Queens has little else that scores efficiently.
- BYU -28.25 and a 181.5 total haven't moved, and Queens opponents carry a 66.1% effective field goal rate, 361st nationally.
A defense with no answers
The ASUN champions come into the Marriott Center tonight with the profile of a team that can score with anyone and stop almost no one. Through three games, Queens allows 134.6 points per 100 possessions, 357th of 364 Division I teams. Opponents post a 66.1% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times), 361st, and they are hitting 48.9% from three.
This isn't only early-season noise. Last season's Queens defense ranked 351st in efficiency even as the team won 21 games.
BYU is the wrong opponent for that problem. The Cougars rank 7th in effective field goal percentage at 65.7%, and they shoot 45.8% from deep, 11th nationally. Tyler Betsey, the Syracuse transfer, has made 10 of 13 threes. Robert Wright III is scoring 26.0 points a game. This is the matchup most likely to decide the game.
Extra possessions for BYU
BYU also figures to get more shots than Queens does. The Cougars grab 38.5% of their own misses, 91st nationally, while Queens secures just 59.8% of opponents' misses, 339th.
Ball security points the same way. BYU turns it over on 11.4% of possessions, 17th in the country, and Queens' defense forces turnovers at a middling rate that ranks 217th. A Queens upset bid usually needs turnovers and second chances, and neither looks available here.
Queens rebuilt around Mann
Queens returns only 40.0% of last season's minutes, and the departures took much of the shooting with them. Chris Ashby, Carson Schwieger and Maban Jabriel combined for heavy three-point volume last season. The result is a different shot diet: Queens' three-point attempt rate has dropped to 37.2%, 252nd, from 46.8% last season.
Nasir Mann, the ASUN tournament MVP last spring and this week's ASUN Player of the Week, is carrying the load at 19.3 points per game. Jordan Watford adds 17.3 points and 5.0 assists, but he went 1 of 6 at Oklahoma State.
That Oklahoma State game is the warning. Queens lost 118-68 after trailing 52-31 at halftime. The last trip to Provo went similarly: BYU won 99-55 in November 2024.
BYU's new pieces and availability
BYU returns just 26.7% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. The newcomers have filled in fast. Five-star freshman Bruce Branch III, starting in the spot AJ Dybantsa left, averages 14.5 points. The Cougars opened with a 94-83 win over Ohio State.
Jaxon Kohler remains eligible under a preliminary injunction granted Oct. 20, though the NCAA is expected to appeal. He started BYU's last game. Dawson Baker (knee) has not played this season, and his status for tonight is unconfirmed.
Tempo and the number
Queens plays fast, at 76.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 47th nationally. BYU sits at 69.8, 218th. More possessions give BYU's shooting more chances to stretch the margin, and they also feed the total.
The market expects points. The 181.5 total is unchanged since our feed first saw the game, as is BYU -28.25. All three Queens games have gone over, and Queens has allowed 103.7 points per game, 363rd. Queens is 2-1 against the spread, including a one-point win at Loyola Marymount as a 6.5-point underdog.
Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars line movement and odds
| Book | Royals ML | Cougars ML | Royals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2800 | -10000 | +28.5 (-105) | o181.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o182.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +28.5 (-108) | o181.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +28.5 (-115) | o181.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +4000 | -12000 | +29 (-110) | o182 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +28.5 (-104) | o181.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o182.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | — | — | +29 (-110) | o182 (-110) |
Where the money is on Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars
On the Kalshi moneyline: Queens University Royals: 72% of bets, 3% of the money; BYU Cougars: 28% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -28.5: 75% of bets, 91% of the money; Queens University Royals +28.5: 25% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 181.5: 81% of bets, 91% of the money; Under 181.5: 19% of bets, 9% of the money.
Key players
- Robert Wright III (BYU): The reigning Big 12 Player of the Week is averaging 26.0 points with a 75 effective field goal percentage.
- Tyler Betsey (BYU): The Syracuse transfer has made 10 of 13 threes, including 6 of 8 against Omaha.
- Bruce Branch III (BYU): The five-star freshman is averaging 14.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in his first two games.
- Jaxon Kohler (BYU): The Michigan State transfer is grabbing 6.5 rebounds per game while playing under a court injunction.
- Nasir Mann (Queens University): Mann averages 19.3 points and is shooting 55.6% from three.
- Jordan Watford (Queens University): Watford carries a 26.6% usage rate with 5.0 assists per game, but scored 6 at Oklahoma State.
- Avantae Parker (Queens University): Parker averages 2.3 blocks per game, Queens' main deterrent at the rim.
- Caleb Jones (Queens University): Jones gives Queens 10.7 points off the bench with a 65.9% effective field goal rate.
Numbers that matter
| Queens opponent eFG% | 66.1% | Ranks 361st of 364, the core of Queens' defensive problem. |
|---|---|---|
| BYU effective FG% | 65.7% | 7th nationally, driven by 45.8% three-point shooting. |
| Queens defensive rebound % | 59.8% | 339th, against a BYU team that ranks 91st on the offensive glass. |
| Spread | -28.25 | BYU's number is unchanged since our feed first recorded it. |
| Total | 181.5 | Also unchanged, and all three Queens games have gone over. |
Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars: quick answers
What was the final score of Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
Queens University Royals 82, BYU Cougars 98 (final). Queens University Royals covered the closing spread (Queens University Royals +28.5). The game went under the closing total of 181.5.
Who is favored in Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
BYU is favored by 28.5 points (BYU -28.5).
What is the over/under for Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
The total is 181.5 points.
When is Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
Yes: Queens University Royals opened +25.5 and is now +28.5, and the total moved from 178.5 to 181.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Queens University Royals vs BYU Cougars?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Queens University Royals: 72% of bets, 3% of the money; BYU Cougars: 28% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: BYU Cougars -28.5: 75% of bets, 91% of the money; Queens University Royals +28.5: 25% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 181.5: 81% of bets, 91% of the money; Under 181.5: 19% of bets, 9% of the money.