Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats prediction: Northern Arizona's turnovers and thin glass put a 36.5-point line in play
Arizona's shooting has been cold, but against a team that gives away possessions and can't finish defensive stands, the Wildcats may not need to shoot well to win big.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks covered the closing spread (Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +35.5). The game went under the closing total of 156.5.
| Spread | Arizona -36 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Arizona should control the possession battle. NAU gives the ball away and can't finish defensive stands, so size and second chances drive the margin.
- Motiejus Krivas against a Lumberjacks front line that blocks almost nothing and has allowed 57.1% on two-pointers.
- Arizona is -36.5, first seen at -36. NAU's 25.8% turnover rate bears most on whether the Wildcats can run up the score.
Empty trips for the Lumberjacks
Arizona has played two games and learned two things. Its rebuilt roster can score, and it has yet to clear a closing spread. Tuesday night in Tucson, the Wildcats host a 0-2 Northern Arizona team, and the market wants a win by 36.5.
That number makes sense once you count possessions. NAU has turned the ball over on 25.8% of its trips (turnover rate, per 100 possessions), 352nd of 364 teams. Arizona hasn't been a ball-hawking defense, so those giveaways were the Lumberjacks' own doing against UNLV and New Mexico.
The defensive glass is worse. NAU has secured only 55.3% of opponents' misses, 356th in the country. Arizona's identity under Tommy Lloyd is crashing the offensive boards: last season the Wildcats grabbed 38.4% of their own misses, seventh nationally. Every NAU turnover and every Arizona put-back is a possession the underdog never gets back.
Krivas against no rim protection
Motiejus Krivas has started this season at 19.0 points a game while blocking 4.0 shots, and he hasn't attempted a three. He works almost entirely in the paint, and NAU has little to answer him there. The Lumberjacks block just 4.8% of opponents' two-point tries, 328th nationally.
Ivan Kharchenkov has been the bigger revelation. The returning forward is averaging 27.0 points and 10 rebounds and carries nearly 30% of Arizona's possessions when he's on the floor. Caleb Holt adds rebounding on the wing. Against a smaller opponent, this frontcourt is the shortest path to a blowout.
Komin and the three-point bet
NAU's counter is volume from deep. The Lumberjacks take 55.3% of their shots from three, the 11th-highest rate in Division I. That is a sharp change from last season's balanced attack, and it runs through Chris Komin. He is averaging 22.5 points, making 6 of 13 from distance, and scored 24 at UNLV.
Arizona's perimeter defense has given NAU reason to keep firing. Opponents are making 39.4% of their threes against the Wildcats, 328th nationally. Arizona can't fully punish the other way, either: it is shooting 25.0% from three as a team. If NAU stays within reach, it will be because a hot shooting night offset the possession gap.
A new Arizona, with Godfrey waiting
This isn't last season's team. Arizona went 36-3 a year ago, but only 27.5% of those minutes returned, so last season's elite ratings are a weak guide. Kharchenkov and Krivas are the holdovers, and transfers like Derek Dixon from North Carolina fill the backcourt.
Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey still isn't available. A Texas judge denied his temporary restraining order and dismissed the claims for lack of personal jurisdiction. His lawyers are weighing a Pima County suit or another venue. Even if he wins eligibility, he faces a reported four-game suspension. Freshman center Endurance Aiyamenkhue missed the October exhibition with a lower-leg injury, and no reliable update has followed, so his status is unclear.
One familiar face is on the other bench. NAU forward Dylan Anderson spent two seasons at Arizona before stops at Boise State and Murray State. Last November, the Wildcats won this game 84-49.
Where the number sits
The spread has drifted toward Arizona since our feed first saw it at -36, and the total has ticked up to 156.5. Both teams have gone over the total in both of their games.
The tempo gap matters for the total. Arizona plays at 77.8 possessions per 40 minutes, while NAU plays at 66.5, near the bottom of Division I. If the Wildcats set the pace, NAU's turnovers become run-outs. If the Lumberjacks slow it down, a 36-point margin requires near-total control on the boards.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Lumberjacks ML | Wildcats ML | Lumberjacks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +36.5 (-118) | o156.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +36.5 (-120) | o156.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +35.5 (-108) | o156.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +35.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +10000 | -50000 | +35.5 (-105) | o157 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +36.5 (-115) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +35.5 (+100) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +36 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 97% of bets, 7% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 3% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona Wildcats -36.5: 57% of bets, 59% of the money; Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +36.5: 43% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 64% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 157.5: 36% of bets, 10% of the money.
Key players
- Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona): He is averaging 27.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, up from 10.4 points a game last season.
- Motiejus Krivas (Arizona): He is shooting 70.6% from the floor with 4.0 blocks a game, all without a three-point attempt.
- Caleb Holt (Arizona): He is averaging 14.0 points and 7.5 rebounds but has missed all four of his threes.
- Derek Dixon (Arizona): He shot 39.7% from three at North Carolina last season but is at 29.4% so far.
- Chris Komin (Northern Arizona): He is averaging 22.5 points and shooting 46.2% from three, after averaging 7.8 points last season.
- Lucas Toukam (Northern Arizona): He is averaging 13.0 points and a team-best 6.0 rebounds.
- Ryan Abelman (Northern Arizona): He has made 6 of 17 threes and averages 12.0 points.
Numbers that matter
| NAU turnover rate | 25.8% | It ranks 352nd of 364 and is the biggest reason Arizona can stretch the margin. |
|---|---|---|
| NAU defensive rebound rate | 55.3% | It ranks 356th, against an Arizona program built on offensive rebounding. |
| Arizona opponent 3-point % | 39.4% | It ranks 328th, which opens the door for an NAU offense that ranks 11th in three-point attempt rate. |
| Spread | -36.5 | Arizona is favored by 36.5, up from -36 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Arizona returning minutes | 27.5% | Few players are back from the 36-3 team, so last season's ratings say little about this roster. |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats: quick answers
What was the final score of Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 59, Arizona Wildcats 90 (final). Northern Arizona Lumberjacks covered the closing spread (Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +35.5). The game went under the closing total of 156.5.
Who is favored in Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
Arizona is favored by 36 points (Arizona -36).
What is the over/under for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
Yes: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks opened +36.5 and is now +35.5, and the total moved from 155.5 to 156.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Arizona Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 97% of bets, 7% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 3% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona Wildcats -36.5: 57% of bets, 59% of the money; Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +36.5: 43% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 64% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 157.5: 36% of bets, 10% of the money.