Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction: Virginia's swarming hands await Bucknell's rebuilt, three-happy backcourt
The No. 6 Cavaliers have become one of the country's best ball thieves, and a Bucknell team that can't hold onto the ball or rebound arrives as a 37.5-point underdog.
Bucknell Bison covered the closing spread (Bucknell Bison +38.5). The game went over the closing total of 151.5.
| Spread | Virginia -38.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151.5 |
- Virginia's guards should turn Bucknell turnovers and missed box-outs into easy points, leaving the Bison to chase the game from three.
- Virginia's ball pressure, led by Chance Mallory, against Bucknell's turnover-prone guards decides how lopsided this gets.
- Virginia is favored by 37.5 with a 148.5 total, both unchanged. Every game either team has played this season went over.
A defense that plays with its hands
Virginia is 3-0, ranked No. 6, and plays a different kind of defense than the one that won 30 games last season. Bucknell arrives 0-2 with a roster built mostly from scratch. The real question tonight is how often the Bison even get a shot up.
The Cavaliers steal the ball on 18.7% of opponent possessions, 10th in Division I. Last season they ranked 202nd in that stat. They took 11 steals off Arkansas on Sunday, three of them from Elijah Gertrude, who is back after an ACL tear cost him a full season. Point guard Chance Mallory averages 3.3 steals in his first season as a starter.
Bucknell gives the ball away on 19.1% of its possessions (turnover rate), 242nd nationally. Its guards will see more ball pressure tonight than at any point so far.
Second chances, all one way
The Bison's bigger problem shows up after the shot. Bucknell grabs just 44.9% of opponent misses (defensive rebound rate), last of 364 Division I teams. Virginia, the taller team by minutes-weighted height, collects 38.4% of its own misses, 94th in the country.
That gap matters even more against a defense with Johann Grunloh, who is blocking 2.7 shots a game. Bucknell rarely gets a second look at the rim, and its first looks inside won't come easy either.
Bucknell's only path is the arc
If Bucknell keeps this within shouting distance, it will do it from deep. The Bison take 52.9% of their shots from three, 27th-most in the country.
Aleksander Pachucki is the trigger. He has gone from part-time returner to lead scorer, and he hit 7 of 11 threes for a career-high 23 points at Maryland. He cooled off against Old Dominion. Luca Soroa Schaller, a transfer from Northeastern, has been the steadier creator and also posted a career high in the first two games.
Virginia's opponents are shooting 31.3% from three. A hot night from Pachucki is the clearest way for Bucknell to stay inside a big number.
A faster Virginia and the total
Ryan Odom's team is running. Virginia averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 102nd nationally, after ranking 261st in pace last season. Bucknell plays slower, but its defense hasn't stopped anyone: Maryland scored 96 on it on opening night.
All three Virginia games have gone over, including the 91-72 win over Arkansas in Washington, when every Cavalier starter scored in double figures. Both Bucknell games went over too. The total sits at 148.5. Turnovers that become layups push toward a high-scoring night. A slow Bucknell pace and long Virginia benches in the second half pull the other way.
Covering a giant number
Virginia has handled the easy part of its schedule without beating the spread. It beat Drexel 89-60 and Northeastern 97-72, and failed to cover in both. The cover came against the best team it has played.
Bucknell returns just 34.7% of last season's minutes. That makes last season's 10-23 finish a weak guide in either direction. The Bison covered as a 31.5-point underdog at Maryland and then lost by double digits at home to Old Dominion.
Transfer wing Christian Harmon was still rehabbing a broken foot as of Nov. 9, so Virginia's depth stays as it has been. If the Cavaliers' starters build a big early lead, how long Odom keeps them in will shape the final margin as much as anything Bucknell does.
Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers line movement and odds
| Book | Bison ML | Cavaliers ML | Bison spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +38.5 (-113) | o151.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +25000 | -100000 | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +38.5 (-104) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +38.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bucknell Bison: 91% of bets, 53% of the money; Virginia Cavaliers: 9% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Virginia Cavaliers -39.5: 57% of bets, 82% of the money; Bucknell Bison +39.5: 44% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 70% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 150.5: 30% of bets, 16% of the money.
Key players
- Thijs De Ridder (Virginia): The Co-ACC Player of the Week averages 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds on a 68.9% effective field goal percentage.
- Sam Lewis (Virginia): He shares the team scoring lead at 18.7 points and is shooting 42.9% from three.
- Chance Mallory (Virginia): He averages 4.7 assists and 3.3 steals, and had six assists against one turnover in 32 minutes against Arkansas.
- Johann Grunloh (Virginia): He anchors the rim with 2.7 blocks per game while scoring 13.0 points.
- Aleksander Pachucki (Bucknell): He leads Bucknell at 17.0 points and has made 10 of 21 threes.
- Luca Soroa Schaller (Bucknell): He averages 12.0 points, 3.5 assists and 2.5 steals with a 121.6 offensive rating.
- Rocco Lamuno (Bucknell): He scored 12 points in his Bucknell debut at Maryland and averages 10.0 points.
Numbers that matter
| Virginia steal rate | 18.7% | That ranks 10th in Division I, against a Bucknell offense that ranks 242nd in turnover rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Bucknell defensive rebound rate | 44.9% | Bucknell ranks last of 364 teams at securing opponent misses. |
| Bucknell 3-point attempt rate | 52.9% | Bucknell takes the 27th-highest share of threes in the country, its most likely way to stay close. |
| Spread | -37.5 | Virginia's line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| Bucknell returning minutes | 34.7% | So little of last season's roster is back that last season's numbers say little about this team. |
Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers: quick answers
What was the final score of Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
Bucknell Bison 61, Virginia Cavaliers 95 (final). Bucknell Bison covered the closing spread (Bucknell Bison +38.5). The game went over the closing total of 151.5.
Who is favored in Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
Virginia is favored by 38.5 points (Virginia -38.5).
What is the over/under for Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
The total is 151.5 points.
When is Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
Yes: Bucknell Bison opened +36.5 and is now +38.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Bucknell Bison vs Virginia Cavaliers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bucknell Bison: 91% of bets, 53% of the money; Virginia Cavaliers: 9% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Virginia Cavaliers -39.5: 57% of bets, 82% of the money; Bucknell Bison +39.5: 44% of bets, 18% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 70% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 150.5: 30% of bets, 16% of the money.