Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos prediction: Little Rock's fouling habit is Jake Hall's open door at The Pit
New Mexico's guards keep the ball and get to the line, and a Little Rock defense that sends opponents to the stripe has to find a way to stop them.
New Mexico Lobos covered the closing spread (Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +23.5). The game went over the closing total of 157.5.
| Spread | New Mexico -22.75 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- New Mexico's backcourt should control this game on volume, ball security and free throws, while Little Rock hunts second chances near the rim.
- Jake Hall against a Little Rock defense allowing 42.0% from three and fouling at a rate ranked 362nd nationally.
- New Mexico is a 22.5-point favorite, up from 21 when our feed first saw it, after covering both of its opening games.
A defense that keeps fouling
Two games into a rebuild under first-year coach Travis Ford, Little Rock has a defensive problem it can't hide. Opponents are taking 68.0 free throws for every 100 shots from the field, a free throw rate that ranks 362nd of 364 Division I teams. When they do shoot, it goes in: opponents are hitting 42.0% from three, 344th nationally.
That is a bad combination against Jake Hall, the Preseason Mountain West Player of the Year. Hall has 53 points through two games and is using 35% of New Mexico's possessions while he's on the floor. He also has help. Uriah Tenette is averaging 18.5 points and has made 90.9% of his free throws, so a whistle-heavy game plays straight into the Lobos' hands. Two games is a small sample for both teams, but nothing so far suggests Little Rock can defend without fouling.
New Mexico doesn't give it away
The Lobos have turned the ball over on 11.3% of their possessions, 16th in the country. Little Rock coughs it up on 19.9%. Against a New Mexico team whose reserve guards are swarming passing lanes, that gap matters. Chris Howell is averaging 3.5 steals off the bench and 6.5 assists, and Dax Hall has added 3.0 steals a game.
Little Rock's offset is the offensive glass. The Trojans have grabbed 41.2% of their own misses, 54th nationally, and that is the clearest way for an outmatched team to manufacture extra shots. New Mexico has been sturdy on the defensive boards, though, collecting 75.7% of opponents' misses. If Little Rock doesn't win that fight, it has little else to lean on.
Little Rock's path runs inside
The Trojans don't live behind the arc: their 3-point attempt rate ranks 339th, meaning they shoot fewer threes than almost anyone. That fits the one soft spot New Mexico has shown. The Lobos block just 4.4% of opponents' two-point tries, 335th nationally, and opponents are making 62.2% of their twos against them.
Papa Amadou Kante, a Pittsburgh transfer, is shooting 61.5% from the field and has yet to attempt a three. Bradyn Hubbard put up 16 points and 7 rebounds against Southeastern Louisiana. Jah'Likai King, the UAC Newcomer of the Week, scored 27 at VCU on 9-of-13 shooting. If Little Rock does draw fouls in return, it can cash them: the Trojans are shooting 82.2% at the line.
Two rosters, two rebuilds
Last season's numbers tell you little about this Little Rock team. Players on the current roster accounted for just 2.2% of last season's minutes, and the Trojans opened with 14 new players and one returner. King, Hubbard, Aaron Clark, Taj Walters and Kante all arrived as transfers. The Trojans were picked third in the UAC's preseason coaches' poll, but they lost at home to Southeastern Louisiana as an 8-point favorite.
New Mexico turned over its roster too, but kept its centerpiece. Hall shot 43.8% from three last season, and transfers Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi and Hudson Mayes have slotted into the starting lineup. Forward Rytis Petraitis has missed both games with an ankle sprain; Eric Olen said Friday the injury is progressing and that Petraitis has been practicing, so his status for tonight is unsettled. Freshman forward Nate Muriithi sat out the Oct. 18 exhibition with an undisclosed injury, and there has been no update since.
Where the market sits
New Mexico is favored by 22.5, up from 21 when our feed first recorded the line, with money moving toward the Lobos. The total sits at 157.5 after opening at 156.5 in our feed. New Mexico covered big numbers against Utah Tech and Northern Arizona, and both games went over. Little Rock covered as a big underdog at VCU, losing 72-82, then failed as a favorite at home.
The Lobos' opponents so far rank 202nd and 312th in last season's adjusted net efficiency, so the scoring will face its first real check only when the schedule stiffens. Tonight, Little Rock's defense doesn't look like that check.
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos line movement and odds
| Book | Trojans ML | Lobos ML | Trojans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2200 | -10000 | +23.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +23.5 (-106) | o157.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +1800 | -5000 | +23.5 (-112) | o157.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +2500 | -10000 | +23.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +23.5 (-115) | o157.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2400 | -10000 | +22.5 (-102) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +23.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +23.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: 58% of bets, 6% of the money; New Mexico Lobos: 42% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Mexico Lobos -21.5: 92% of bets, 99% of the money; Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +21.5: 8% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 55% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 156.5: 45% of bets, 80% of the money.
Key players
- Jake Hall (New Mexico): Averaging 26.5 points with a 35% usage rate through two games.
- Uriah Tenette (New Mexico): Scoring 18.5 points a game and shooting 90.9% at the line.
- Chris Howell (New Mexico): Averaging 6.5 assists and 3.5 steals off the bench.
- Jah'Likai King (Little Rock): Leads the Trojans at 20.5 points a game with a 144.2 offensive rating.
- Papa Amadou Kante (Little Rock): Shooting 61.5% from the field, all of it inside the arc.
- Bradyn Hubbard (Little Rock): Averaging 9.5 points and a team-best 6.5 rebounds.
Numbers that matter
| Little Rock opponent free throw rate | 68.0% | Ranks 362nd of 364, a gift for a New Mexico backcourt that makes its free throws. |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico turnover rate | 11.3% | 16th nationally, against a Little Rock offense that turns it over on 19.9% of possessions. |
| New Mexico block rate | 4.4% | Ranks 335th, the opening for Little Rock's interior-first offense. |
| Little Rock offensive rebound rate | 41.2% | 54th nationally and the Trojans' best route to extra possessions. |
| Spread | -22.5 | New Mexico's line has grown from 21 since our feed first saw the game. |
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos: quick answers
What was the final score of Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 69, New Mexico Lobos 94 (final). New Mexico Lobos covered the closing spread (Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +23.5). The game went over the closing total of 157.5.
Who is favored in Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
New Mexico is favored by 22.75 points (New Mexico -22.75).
What is the over/under for Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
Yes: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans opened +21.5 and is now +23.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: 58% of bets, 6% of the money; New Mexico Lobos: 42% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Mexico Lobos -21.5: 92% of bets, 99% of the money; Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +21.5: 8% of bets, 1% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 55% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 156.5: 45% of bets, 80% of the money.