San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction: San Diego's parade to the foul line tests foul-prone Colorado
A rebuilt Toreros team that draws whistles and makes free throws visits a Colorado team that fouls too much and starts games slowly.
San Diego Toreros covered the closing spread (San Diego Toreros +12.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Colorado -12.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151 |
- Colorado's shooting and Barrington Hargress should carry the night, but San Diego's free-throw volume can keep the margin tighter than the talent gap.
- Colorado's foul discipline against a San Diego offense that draws free throws at the 44th-highest rate and makes 82.3% of them.
- Colorado is a 13-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw the game; Colorado's first-half scoring ranks 344th, which tests a big number early.
The whistle decides the margin
Colorado should win this game in Boulder tonight. Whether it wins comfortably may come down to the referees. San Diego has built its 2-0 start on getting to the line. Its free throw rate, which measures free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, is 50.4%, 44th in Division I. Once there, the Toreros make 82.3%, 16th nationally.
That is a bad fit for Colorado. The Buffs allow an opponent free throw rate of 46.2%, which ranks 303rd. Foul trouble has followed them from the opener: Jalin Holland picked up four fouls in the blowout of Abilene Christian.
The whistle cuts both ways. San Diego fouls even more than Colorado does, allowing an opponent free throw rate that ranks 357th. Colorado has not cashed in on those trips this season: it shoots 64.4% at the line, 272nd. Free points for both teams favor the side that makes them, and right now that is the underdog.
Colorado's slow first halves
The Buffs have been a second-half team. They average 26.5 first-half points, 344th in the country, and the loss to San Diego State in the Bill Walton Classic began with a 17-35 halftime deficit. Hargress scored 33 that night, and it still was not enough to dig out.
San Diego has its own early problem on defense. Tarleton State led the Toreros 32-46 at the half before San Diego came back to win in overtime. If Colorado starts slowly again, an opponent with that much fight can stay within range well into the second half.
Hargress and the open three
Colorado has made 43.2% of its threes, 28th nationally, and Hargress is the reason. He has made 8 of 13 from deep while carrying the offense as the returner the Buffs rely on most. Last season he shot 48.1% from three, so the hot start matches his track record.
San Diego's defense gives up a lot of threes. Opponents take 56.7% of their shots from deep against the Toreros, eighth-most in the country. Colorado does not hunt threes by habit, but the openings should be there.
The Buffs' depth up front is thinner than the roster suggests. Tad Boyle called the frontcourt the team's question mark. Charlotte transfer David Gomez returned to practice after foot trouble but had no game timetable, and nothing on his status has surfaced since early October. Jacksonville State transfer Iaroslav Niagu was expected to be ineligible while his eligibility petition played out, and there has been no update since early fall.
A Toreros roster built from scratch
San Diego is starting over. First-year coach JR Blount, hired from Iowa State's staff in March, has a roster that played just 4.3% of last season's minutes for the Toreros. Last season's end-of-year adjusted ratings put Colorado 84th and San Diego 226th in net efficiency, but with that much turnover, San Diego's old numbers say little about this group.
The new pieces have produced early. Grand Canyon transfer Dusty Stromer averages 17 points and Jevon Hill has hit 7 of 16 threes. Ball State transfer Davion Hill runs the offense with a 29.4% usage rate but is shooting 35% from the field. The win over Tarleton State is the only Division I result on the résumé.
Where the number sits
Colorado is a 13-point favorite, the same line our feed first recorded. The total has risen from 151 to 152.5.
The totals history points in different directions. Both Colorado games stayed under, including the opener the Buffs covered as 18.5-point favorites. San Diego's only game with a line went over in the 96-90 overtime win, though the Toreros did not cover as favorites. A game full of free throws could push the total up. Colorado's slow first halves could hold it down.
San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes line movement and odds
| Book | Toreros ML | Buffaloes ML | Toreros spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +600 | -900 | +12.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +540 | -910 | +11.5 (-104) | o151.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +675 | -1050 | +12.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +750 | -1400 | +12.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +650 | -1000 | +12 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +580 | -880 | +11.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +550 | -850 | +11.5 (+100) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +600 | -900 | +12.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Diego Toreros: 60% of bets, 28% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes: 41% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Buffaloes -12.5: 66% of bets, 31% of the money; San Diego Toreros +12.5: 35% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 23% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 151.5: 77% of bets, 64% of the money.
Key players
- Barrington Hargress (Colorado): He averages 22 points and has hit 61.5% of his threes, including 33 points against San Diego State.
- Jalin Holland (Colorado): He scores 12 points a game with a 26.4% usage rate, but foul trouble limited him in the opener.
- Alex Dickeson (Colorado): He has a 65% effective field goal percentage and averages 5.5 rebounds off the bench.
- Josiah Sanders (Colorado): He averages 11 points and has made 90.9% of his free throws on a poor free-throw-shooting team.
- Dusty Stromer (San Diego): He leads the Toreros with 17 points a game and adds 2.5 steals.
- Jevon Hill (San Diego): He has hit 43.8% of his threes, including 6 of 11 against Tarleton State.
- Davion Hill (San Diego): He carries a team-high 29.4% usage rate but is shooting 35% from the field.
- Chace Holley (San Diego): He averages 11.5 points off the bench on 58.3% shooting.
Numbers that matter
| San Diego free throw rate | 50.4% | That ranks 44th, and it meets a Colorado defense whose opponent free throw rate ranks 303rd. |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego free throw % | 82.3% | The Toreros rank 16th at the line, which matters if the game is called tightly. |
| Colorado first-half points | 26.5 | That ranks 344th and includes a 17-35 halftime hole against San Diego State. |
| Colorado 3-point % | 43.2% | It ranks 28th, and San Diego opponents take the eighth-highest share of their shots from three. |
| San Diego returning minutes | 4.3% | The roster is almost entirely new, so last season's San Diego numbers are a weak guide. |
San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes: quick answers
What was the final score of San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
San Diego Toreros 75, Colorado Buffaloes 83 (final). San Diego Toreros covered the closing spread (San Diego Toreros +12.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
Colorado is favored by 12.5 points (Colorado -12.5).
What is the over/under for San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
The total is 151 points.
When is San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
No: San Diego Toreros has stayed at +12.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: San Diego Toreros: 60% of bets, 28% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes: 41% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Buffaloes -12.5: 66% of bets, 31% of the money; San Diego Toreros +12.5: 35% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 23% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 151.5: 77% of bets, 64% of the money.