Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils prediction: Hofstra's shot-blocking wall must survive its own turnovers in Tempe
Two almost entirely new rosters collide, and the Pride's elite early rim defense may matter less than whether they can hold onto the ball against an Arizona State team that rarely gives it away.
Arizona St Sun Devils covered the closing spread (Hofstra Pride +18.5). The game went over the closing total of 134.5.
| Spread | Arizona State -18.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 133.75 |
- Arizona State's slow, careful offense should win the possession battle; Hofstra needs its interior defense to turn a grind into a close game.
- Paulius Murauskas against Hofstra's shot-blockers: he is scoring 27.0 points a game, and the Pride block 21.4% of opponents' two-point tries.
- Arizona State is -17, up from -16 when our feed first saw it; Hofstra's 21.0% turnover rate, 300th nationally, is the number that stands out.
Two rebuilds, one steady hand
Neither program looks much like the team that finished last season. Hofstra returns just 11.3% of last season's minutes after losing Cruz Davis to Texas Tech and Preston Edmead to NC State, the guards who carried its run to a CAA tournament title and an NCAA bid. Arizona State, starting over under first-year coach Randy Bennett, returns only 9.2%. That makes last season's numbers a weak guide for both, so the opening week is most of what there is to go on.
The gap shows up in ball security. Hofstra is giving it away on 21.0% of its possessions (turnover rate, the share of trips ending in a turnover), which ranks 300th in Division I. Arizona State sits at 11.6%, 23rd. The Sun Devils have played at a deliberate pace, and in a game with few possessions every wasted Hofstra trip carries extra weight. Joel Foxwell, a transfer from Portland, is averaging 6.5 assists and has kept the offense organized.
Murauskas against the rim protectors
Hofstra's best argument is its interior defense. Opponents have made just 28.6% of their two-pointers against the Pride, 3rd nationally, and Hofstra blocks 21.4% of opponents' two-point attempts, 10th. Imanuel Zorgvol, a transfer from Youngstown State, is averaging 2.0 blocks in under 16 minutes a night.
Arizona State's offense runs through the lane and through Paulius Murauskas. The Saint Mary's transfer is using 34% of the team's possessions while he is on the floor (usage rate) and posted a career-high 33 points against Northern Colorado. The Sun Devils are making 61.4% of their twos, 66th. Those Hofstra numbers came against Saint Joseph's Long Island and Princeton, though, and Murauskas is a different test.
Arizona State's depth is a question. Bennett called Marcus Vaughns' issue a sore hip, and Vaughns missed the opener. Emmanuel Innocenti and Jonathan Griman have also appeared on injury reports, but their status for this game hasn't been confirmed.
The three-point door
If the paint closes, Hofstra may need to shoot over Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed 42.9% shooting from three, 350th, though opponents have rarely tried: Arizona State's opponent 3-point attempt rate ranks 335th. Hofstra hasn't leaned on the three either, ranking 269th in attempt rate.
Trey Boyd III is the shooter to watch, having made 6 of 11 from deep. Justin Moore, the Loyola Chicago transfer with the team's highest usage, went 0 for 6 from three at Princeton.
A slow game with a late-game worry
Arizona State plays at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 340th nationally, so expect a half-court game. For Hofstra, a close finish brings its own risk. The Pride led Princeton by nine with 1:31 left and lost 60-58. They are making just 60.6% of their free throws, 325th, a weakness that grows if the game is tight late.
Where the number sits
The spread has moved toward Arizona State, from -16 to -17, while the total slipped from 134 to 133.5. The Sun Devils are 1-1 against the spread: they failed to cover at -19.25 against East Tennessee State, then covered at -19.5 against Northern Colorado. Hofstra covered as a 2.75-point underdog at Princeton, a game that stayed under a 137.75 total.
What to watch: - Hofstra's turnovers in the first 10 minutes. - How many shots Murauskas gets at the rim against Zorgvol. - Whether Hofstra hunts threes against a defense that has allowed a high percentage on few attempts.
Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils line movement and odds
| Book | Pride ML | Devils ML | Pride spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1250 | -3000 | +18.5 (-110) | o133.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +18.5 (-105) | o134.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +1400 | -3200 | +18.5 (-108) | o134.5 (-102) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +18.5 (-115) | o134.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | +1500 | -3000 | +18.5 (-110) | o134 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1400 | -4000 | +18.5 (-114) | o133.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1500 | -10000 | +18.5 (-105) | o134.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +1350 | -3500 | +18.5 (-110) | o134 (-110) |
Where the money is on Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils
On the Kalshi moneyline: Hofstra Pride: 45% of bets, 3% of the money; Arizona St Sun Devils: 55% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona St Sun Devils -18.5: 35% of bets, 70% of the money; Hofstra Pride +18.5: 65% of bets, 30% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 134.5: 67% of bets, 27% of the money; Under 134.5: 33% of bets, 73% of the money.
Key players
- Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State): Averaging 27.0 points on a 34% usage rate, including a career-high 33 against Northern Colorado.
- Joel Foxwell (Arizona State): The Portland transfer is averaging 6.5 assists despite shooting 31.6% from the field.
- Bryce Ford (Arizona State): The team's top returner scored 17 points off the bench against Northern Colorado.
- Filip Malesevic (Arizona State): Averaging 8.5 rebounds in 24.5 minutes off the bench.
- Trey Boyd III (Hofstra): Has made 6 of 11 threes, including 18 points in the opener.
- Tanner Thomas (Hofstra): Had 14 points and nine rebounds in 36 minutes at Princeton.
- Justin Moore (Hofstra): Leads the team with a 27% usage rate but has made just 1 of 8 threes.
- Imanuel Zorgvol (Hofstra): Averaging 2.0 blocks in 15.5 minutes off the bench.
Numbers that matter
| Hofstra turnover rate | 21.0% | Ranks 300th, against an Arizona State offense that ranks 23rd in ball security. |
|---|---|---|
| Hofstra opponent 2-point % | 28.6% | Third nationally, and the main obstacle for Murauskas and the Sun Devils' interior offense. |
| Arizona State opponent 3-point % | 42.9% | Ranks 350th, though few opponents have tested it. |
| Arizona State pace | 64.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 340th nationally, pointing to a half-court game. |
| Spread movement | -16 to -17 | The line has moved toward Arizona State since our feed first saw it. |
Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils: quick answers
What was the final score of Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Hofstra Pride 63, Arizona St Sun Devils 85 (final). Arizona St Sun Devils covered the closing spread (Hofstra Pride +18.5). The game went over the closing total of 134.5.
Who is favored in Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Arizona State is favored by 18.5 points (Arizona State -18.5).
What is the over/under for Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
The total is 133.75 points.
When is Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Yes: Hofstra Pride opened +15.5 and is now +18.5, and the total is still 134.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Hofstra Pride vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Hofstra Pride: 45% of bets, 3% of the money; Arizona St Sun Devils: 55% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona St Sun Devils -18.5: 35% of bets, 70% of the money; Hofstra Pride +18.5: 65% of bets, 30% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 134.5: 67% of bets, 27% of the money; Under 134.5: 33% of bets, 73% of the money.