Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears prediction: Baylor's ball-hawking freshmen test a rebuilt Yale backcourt in Waco
Baylor leads the country in forcing turnovers through two games, and Yale, short on last season's minutes, has been loose with the ball.
Baylor Bears covered the closing spread (Yale Bulldogs +19.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
| Spread | Baylor -19.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.25 |
- Baylor wants a sprint and a steady supply of steals; Yale needs a slow, clean game and a hot Riley Fox to hang around.
- Yale's guards Trevor Mullin and Jordan Brathwaite against a Baylor press led by freshman Dylan Mingo's 5.0 steals per game.
- Baylor is favored by 19.5, down from 22 when our feed first saw it; the total has held at 157.5.
Steals against a shaky grip
Isaac Celiscar spent last season as one of the most efficient forwards in the Ivy League. On Tuesday night he faces his old teammates in a Baylor jersey, for a team that has opened the season by taking the ball away from everyone in sight.
Baylor forces turnovers on 32.1% of opponent possessions (turnover rate: giveaways per 100 possessions), first in Division I. Freshman Dylan Mingo is averaging 5.0 steals a game. The caveat is the opposition. Northwestern State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff rank 283rd and 322nd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and neither handles the ball like a good Ivy team.
Yale used to be that good Ivy team. Last season the Bulldogs turned it over on 14.0% of possessions, 19th nationally. Through two games this season that rate is 18.8%, which ranks 232nd. Mullin and Brathwaite are back. Most of the rest of the rotation is new, and this is the first time it will see pressure like Baylor's.
A sprint or a crawl
Few nonconference games feature a wider tempo gap. Baylor is averaging 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 28th in the country. Yale plays at 66.5, 310th, and James Jones, in his 28th season in New Haven, has always preferred to grind.
The Bears have done their damage early, scoring 54.0 first-half points per game, seventh nationally. If Yale protects the ball and controls the pace, this stays a half-court game, which is the only version of this matchup that suits the Bulldogs. If Baylor's guards turn steals into layups, the game speeds up.
Rim pressure, cold shooting
Baylor's offense runs inside. The Bears are making 65.8% of their twos, 21st in the country, and just 24.1% of their threes. Yale's defense is holding opponents to 24.0% on threes, about where Baylor shoots, so expect Baylor to keep attacking the paint.
Yale's own interior offense has struggled. The Bulldogs are shooting 44.0% on twos, 325th, and Baylor blocks 17.9% of opponent two-point tries. That pushes Yale toward the perimeter, and toward Fox. He is shooting 42.9% from three and scored 24 on 9-of-14 shooting at UCF.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like last season's. Yale returns 36.8% of its minutes. Baylor returns only 25.1%, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both.
Celiscar is the link. Last season at Yale he scored 13.2 points a game with a 137.1 offensive rating, and he now comes off the bench in Waco. Baylor rebuilt around transfers and freshmen. Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo scored 31 in an exhibition win over Florida, and Liberty transfer Brett Decker Jr. adds shooting. Baylor listed no injuries on its Nov. 7 report. Center Juslin Bodo Bodo, who missed last season with an arm injury, has been cleared for basketball activities. Yale's Nov. 8 release noted no injuries.
What the market is saying
Baylor was first seen at -22 in our feed and the line has moved to -19.5, a 2.5-point move toward Yale. That is the second road game in seven days for the Bulldogs, who lost 87-75 at UCF on Friday and failed to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. Both teams rested four days before this one.
The number asks Baylor to keep doing what it did against two of the weaker teams in the sport, against a far more disciplined opponent.
Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears line movement and odds
| Book | Bulldogs ML | Bears ML | Bulldogs spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1250 | -3000 | +19.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +19.5 (-107) | o157.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +1600 | -4000 | +19.5 (-108) | o158.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +2000 | -7500 | +19.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +19.5 (-105) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +19.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +19.5 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
Where the money is on Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears
On the Kalshi moneyline: Yale Bulldogs: 67% of bets, 16% of the money; Baylor Bears: 33% of bets, 84% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Baylor Bears -20.5: 48% of bets, 66% of the money; Yale Bulldogs +20.5: 52% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 37% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 158.5: 63% of bets, 38% of the money.
Key players
- Riley Fox (Yale): Averaging 21.5 points with a team-high 27.6% usage and 42.9% three-point shooting.
- Trevor Mullin (Yale): The top returner is averaging 14.5 points and shooting 92.3% at the line, but just 35% from the field so far.
- Jordan Brathwaite (Yale): Shot 44.1% from three last season and is averaging 14.0 points as a full-time starter.
- Dylan Mingo (Baylor): The top-five recruit leads the press with 5.0 steals per game.
- Isaac Williams IV (Baylor): Averaging a team-high 17.0 points off the bench, including 18 first-half points against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
- Kayden Mingo (Baylor): Averaging 15.0 points after a 31-point exhibition against Florida.
- Isaac Celiscar (Baylor): Posted a 137.1 offensive rating at Yale last season and is averaging 7.5 points off Baylor's bench.
Numbers that matter
| Baylor forced turnover rate | 32.1% | First in Division I, though built against two opponents ranked 283rd and 322nd in adjusted net efficiency. |
|---|---|---|
| Yale turnover rate | 18.8% | 232nd nationally, up from 14.0% last season. |
| Baylor pace | 78.5 | 28th nationally, against a Yale team that ranks 310th. |
| Baylor 2-point % | 65.8% | 21st nationally, while the Bears shoot 24.1% from three. |
| Spread | -21.5 | Down from -22 when our feed first saw the game. |
Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears: quick answers
What was the final score of Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
Yale Bulldogs 61, Baylor Bears 90 (final). Baylor Bears covered the closing spread (Yale Bulldogs +19.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
Who is favored in Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
Baylor is favored by 19.5 points (Baylor -19.5).
What is the over/under for Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
The total is 158.25 points.
When is Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
Yes: Yale Bulldogs opened +21.5 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Yale Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Yale Bulldogs: 67% of bets, 16% of the money; Baylor Bears: 33% of bets, 84% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Baylor Bears -20.5: 48% of bets, 66% of the money; Yale Bulldogs +20.5: 52% of bets, 34% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 37% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 158.5: 63% of bets, 38% of the money.