Wofford Terriers vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction: Malone's remade Tar Heels chase the margin they missed on opening night

Carolina keeps firing from deep

Michael Malone's first week as a college head coach brought a win and a warning. North Carolina beat Western Carolina 80-72 on Monday, but it needed a late push to put the game away and failed to cover as a 22.25-point favorite. Tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ACCN, the question is less who wins than whether a roster assembled this offseason can sustain its best stretches.

The opener showed a team that lives on the perimeter. More than half of UNC's shots came from three, a 3-point attempt rate of 54.5%, 21st-highest in Division I. Only 30.0% of them went in. Jarin Stevenson, the lone rotation returnee, missed all four of his attempts. Terrence Brown, who averaged 19.9 points at Utah last season, scored 14 but missed all three of his threes.

The foul line saved the night. UNC's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 63.6%, 17th nationally. Wofford kept Tennessee off the line better than most, holding the Volunteers to a 24.6% rate that ranks 86th. If the whistles dry up, the Tar Heels will need their shooters to find a rhythm.

Wofford is starting over too

Last season's Wofford team went 19-13, but little of it remains. Players on this roster logged just 32.4% of last season's minutes. Kahmare Holmes left for DePaul, Nils Machowski for UConn and Cayden Vasko for UCF, taking most of the backcourt scoring with them.

The new group's debut was rough. Wofford lost 90-59 at Tennessee, 14th nationally in adjusted net efficiency. The Terriers posted an effective field goal percentage of 35.5% (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 344th of 360. Cam Lowe, a Division II transfer from Black Hills State, led the team with 14 points. Jacksonville transfer Chris Arias, a 36.1% 3-point shooter there last season, is the likeliest source of a hot night. The SoCon still picked Wofford third of 11, so the league sees a team that will grow into itself. It just may not have grown yet by this week.

No Fens, no proven center

Cameron Fens, the South Dakota transfer who averaged 14.4 points and 8.7 rebounds there last season, still hadn't been cleared as of Oct. 27. At that point Malone said Fens remained ineligible while the legal process plays out. Without him, Sayon Keita, Alexandros Samodurov and Cade Bennerman handle the center minutes, and none had logged a college minute before this season.

The results so far are mixed. UNC grabbed only 20.0% of its own misses against Western Carolina, 336th nationally. Its interior defense was excellent: the Catamounts made just 28.6% of their twos, 10th-best in the country. Size should favor the hosts. UNC's minutes-weighted average height is 79.2 inches against Wofford's 76.7. Ramsey, also new from the Division II ranks, is the Terriers' answer on the glass.

Where the number sits

The market has UNC at -21, down from -23 when our feed first saw the game, with Wofford at +1800 on the moneyline. The total climbed from 154.5 to 156 even though both openers fell short of their totals. UNC-Western Carolina closed at 157.75, and Wofford-Tennessee closed at 155.5.

Last season's adjusted ratings frame the talent gap: UNC finished with a net efficiency of 23.3 (27th), Wofford at -7 (242nd). Those figures describe different rosters, since UNC returns just 17.0% of last season's minutes. Malone pulled all five starters repeatedly in the opener, so the rotation is still unsettled. That instability is the main reason a big favorite could fall short of a big number again.