William & Mary vs Florida Atlantic prediction: William & Mary's brand-new roster tests FAU's transfer backcourt in Boca
Both programs rebuilt over the summer, but the Tribe returned almost nothing, so last season's numbers say more about Brian Earl's system than about the players who will run it.
- Expect two remade rosters still learning each other, with FAU's backcourt of Carlyle, Speed and Hamilton the more proven group on its home floor.
- Kanaan Carlyle, FAU's lone returning starter, against a William & Mary guard rotation built almost entirely from transfers.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's pace gap, W&M 7th and FAU 64th, is the first thing a total will have to price.
A Tribe built from scratch
Last season William & Mary went 20-12 and played at one of the fastest tempos in the country. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 0.4% of last season's minutes, and the lone returner, guard Colin Ndaw, appeared in five games.
The scoring that walked out is substantial. Reese Miller (12.2 points per game) left for UTEP, and Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (11.8) is now at New Mexico. Starting guards Chase Lowe and Kyle Pulliam are gone too.
Earl, in his third season, restocked with transfers and newcomers, including three junior college prospects in Brian Carter Jr., Will Feagles and Gavin Ward, Division II transfer John Roland and freshmen Nick Byrd and Chris Richards. The CAA preseason projection slots the Tribe fourth. They open Nov. 2 against Bridgewater, so this trip should offer an early read, not a settled identity. Last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 138th, but it describes a team that no longer exists.
Carlyle and the new FAU guards
Florida Atlantic kept more, though not much: 13.5% of last season's minutes return. Most of them belong to Kanaan Carlyle, the one starter John Jakus held onto. He averaged 14.3 points last season as the Owls' primary option. The efficiency is the question, since he shot 32.2% from three.
The help arrives with résumés. Jelani Hamilton scored 17.8 points a game at Georgia State, though his effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was only 44.6%. Braeden Speed was the cleaner shooter at Loyola Maryland, hitting 36.5% from deep. Forward Mason Porter-Brown made 40.4% of his threes at LIU, and freshman Felipe Quinones enters as the American's preseason Freshman of the Year.
That is a lot of high-usage guards sharing one ball. How quickly Jakus sorts out the pecking order may matter more than any individual line.
What Earl's system carried
If the Tribe's style survives the turnover, the shape is familiar. Last season W&M ranked 7th in pace, while FAU sat 64th. The Tribe also lived at the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 43.8%, 10th nationally.
The cost of that speed showed up on the other end. W&M allowed 77.7 points a game, 287th in the country.
The newcomers have to recreate all of it. Jesse McIntosh made 82.4% of his free throws at South Dakota, a useful trait in a system built on getting to the stripe. Josh Baldwin started 13 games at Cornell and brings the most playmaking of the incoming guards.
FAU's rim protection question
Defense was the Owls' sturdier half last season. They ranked 91st in defensive efficiency, opponents shot 48.2% on twos and FAU's block rate was 15th in the country. The man behind much of that, Devin Williams, blocked 2.5 shots a game and is now at Seton Hall.
Jakus addressed the defense at Media Day, calling his new assistant "a top defensive coordinator in the country." Whether that hire can rebuild a rim deterrent without Williams is a live question against a W&M program whose recent identity was attacking the paint and drawing fouls.
The Owls have the home floor at Baldwin Arena, with the game on ESPN+.
Key players
- Josh Baldwin (William & Mary): Started 13 games at Cornell last season with a 115.6 offensive rating.
- Jesse McIntosh (William & Mary): Scored 7.5 points a game last season and shot 82.4% from the line.
- Trevon Blassingame (William & Mary): Made 37.9% of his threes at Idaho last season in a reserve role.
- Kanaan Carlyle (Florida Atlantic): Averaged 14.3 points last season on a 24.9% usage rate.
- Jelani Hamilton (Florida Atlantic): Scored 17.8 points a game last season with a 29.8% usage rate.
- Braeden Speed (Florida Atlantic): Started all 32 games last season and posted a 120 offensive rating.
Numbers that matter
| W&M returning minutes | 0.4% | Virtually the entire rotation is new, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| FAU returning minutes | 13.5% | Carlyle accounts for most of what returns in Boca Raton. |
| W&M pace rank, last season | 7th | One of the fastest teams in the country, against an FAU side that ranked 64th. |
| W&M free throw rate, last season | 43.8% | Ranked 10th nationally and defined how the Tribe scored. |
| FAU block rate rank, last season | 15th | Its top shot-blocker, Devin Williams, has left for Seton Hall. |
William & Mary vs Florida Atlantic: quick answers
When is William & Mary vs Florida Atlantic?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.