Oakland vs Boise State prediction: Wheeler-Thomas and Boise State's rebuild host Oakland's almost-entirely new roster

Two programs starting over

Greg Kampe is in his 43rd season at Oakland, and he has rarely had a roster this new. The Golden Grizzlies return just 9.9% of last season's minutes. They have three returners and 12 newcomers, and star guard Brody Robinson left for Creighton.

Boise State isn't far behind. Leon Rice, entering his 17th season, must replace all five starters, and four of them moved on to Power Four programs. The Broncos return 27.5% of last season's minutes, mostly from reserves. They open Year 1 of the rebuilt Pac-12 picked sixth in the league. Oakland was picked fourth in the Horizon.

The last meeting, an 87-43 Boise State rout in November 2024, involved almost none of the players who will see the floor this time. The series history says more about the programs than about this matchup.

Wheeler-Thomas takes the keys

Boise State's new offense runs through Damari Wheeler-Thomas, the North Dakota State transfer expected to handle the ball. Last season he scored 14.5 points per game and made 38.3% of his threes, a real shooting threat at his volume.

The interior belongs to two other transfers. Dovydas Butka pulled down 8.5 rebounds per game at Campbell, and Jerquarius Stanback blocked 2.0 shots per game at Alabama State. The depth is less settled. Lamar Washington, a Georgia Tech transfer, was listed with eligibility pending as of Oct. 31, and Illinois transfer Ty Rodgers was sidelined indefinitely by an offseason injury at that point. Returning reserves Julian Bowie and Aginaldo Neto both topped 20 points in exhibitions. The Broncos beat Washington 109-91 in one of them.

Oakland's frontcourt rebuild

Kampe's biggest addition is Belal El Shakery, who averaged 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds as a full-time starter at New Hampshire. He also shot 49.1% at the line, a weakness opponents can target late in a close game. Chris Fields Jr. (Campbell) and Josh Hill (Robert Morris) were high-usage forwards at their old schools, so Oakland has bodies inside but no proven efficient scorer.

The perimeter looks thinner. Nassim Mashhour returns after an injury ended his season in December; he hit 37.7% from three in his 10 starts, though his current status is unclear. Western Michigan transfer Brady Swartz shot 34.1% from deep. Oakland lost its exhibition to Tennessee State 89-75, after Tennessee State pulled away late.

Old habits on the glass

Last season's team numbers describe mostly departed players, but coaching tendencies tend to carry over. Oakland played fast last season at 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 48th nationally. Boise State was 279th, so the Broncos will want to slow this game down at home.

Rebounding is where Rice's teams have been strongest. Boise State grabbed 77.1% of opponents' misses last season, third in the country. Oakland's defensive rebound rate was 333rd. With Butka and Stanback now inside, second chances could tilt this one.

There is one counterweight. Boise State lived at the line last season, ranking 33rd in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Oakland's defense was fifth-best at keeping opponents off it. Whether either habit survives this much roster turnover is the open question.