Valparaiso vs South Dakota State prediction: Joe Sayler's jumper tests Valparaiso's three-point defense in Brookings
Two rebuilt rosters collide early, and the clearest edge on either side belongs to South Dakota State's senior sniper and the perimeter wall Valpo built last season.
- A half-court game between retooled rosters, with South Dakota State leaning on threes and Valparaiso hunting the offensive glass and the foul line.
- Joe Sayler, a 41.2% three-point shooter last season, against a Valpo defense that ranked 76th in opponent three-point percentage last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's final adjusted net ratings put Valpo 163rd and South Dakota State 206th nationally.
Sayler against the arc
South Dakota State returns only 43.7% of last season's points, which leaves the offense flowing through Joe Sayler. The guard averaged 14.5 points last season and hit 41.2% of his threes, and he is the one proven scorer Bryan Petersen gets back for his second season in Brookings.
Valparaiso's defense was built to take that shot away. Last season the Beacons held opponents to 32.0% from three, 76th of 365, even though opponents took threes on 36.7% of their shots, 275th in rate. The Jackrabbits were the opposite: their opponents launched threes on 47.2% of shots, 14th-most in the country. If Sayler and Kalen Garry, a 36.7% shooter last season, find clean looks, South Dakota State controls the game. If Valpo's guards stay attached, the Jackrabbits have to find offense somewhere they haven't proven they can.
Where Valpo's points come from
The Beacons' problem last season was scoring, and they lost their best shooters. Effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as worth 1.5 times a two, sat at 48.3% for Valpo, 327th nationally. Inside the arc they made just 46.6%, 349th.
Owen Dease (40.8% from three) and Brody Whitaker (44.2%) are gone. That puts more on JT Pettigrew, a preseason All-MVC first-team pick who led the returners in scoring but shot inefficiently, and on Rakim Chaney. Indiana State transfer Bruno Alocen adds another ball handler. Valpo was picked fifth of 11 in the MVC, its highest projection since joining the league, so the coaching staff clearly sees more shot-making than last season's numbers show.
The glass and the foul line
Valpo's best path to points last season was second chances and free throws. The Beacons grabbed 32.7% of their own misses, 119th nationally, and their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 38.3% ranked 85th.
The glass is where South Dakota State pushes back. The Jackrabbits finished seventh in the country in defensive rebound rate last season, ending possessions with one shot. Valpo also played bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.2 inches to South Dakota State's 76.2, though the Jackrabbits' rebounding edge came from a frontcourt that has largely departed. At the other end, South Dakota State rarely got to the line, ranking 304th in free throw rate.
Two programs starting over
Neither team looks much like last season. South Dakota State returns 42.4% of its minutes after losing Damon Wilkinson to Nebraska and Matthew Mors, and it adds four transfers, including Western Michigan guard EJ Ryans and SIU Edwardsville forward Myles Thompson, whose season ended early with an injury. Valpo returns 47.4% under fourth-year coach Roger Powell Jr. That turnover makes last season's team numbers a loose guide on both sides.
The schedule shapes this one too. Valpo opens Nov. 2 against Western Illinois and visits No. 24 Purdue on Nov. 6. South Dakota State opens Nov. 3 at Kansas State, and this is its first home game against a Division I opponent. The only previous meeting went to the Jackrabbits, 61-50, in November 2022. Nothing has surfaced on injuries to either team's main rotation.
Key players
- Joe Sayler (South Dakota State): Led the returners last season at 14.5 points per game while shooting 41.2% from three.
- Kalen Garry (South Dakota State): Started all 32 games last season, averaging 10.7 points and 3.2 assists.
- EJ Ryans (South Dakota State): Made 89.1% of his free throws last season at Western Michigan, a useful late-game asset.
- JT Pettigrew (Valparaiso): Averaged 12.5 points and 6.8 rebounds last season with a team-high 26.5% usage among returners.
- Rakim Chaney (Valparaiso): Scored 10.4 points per game last season and made 35.9% of his threes.
- Justus McNair (Valparaiso): Posted a 111.8 offensive rating last season, the best among Valpo's returners, in 18.0 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| Sayler's three-point % | 41.2% | South Dakota State's top returning scorer is its clearest offensive weapon. |
|---|---|---|
| Valpo opponent 3-point % rank | 76th | Last season's Beacons defended the arc well, the direct counter to Sayler. |
| Valpo effective FG% rank | 327th | Shot-making was Valpo's weakness last season, and its two best shooters left. |
| SDSU defensive rebound % rank | 7th | The Jackrabbits' elite glass work last season stands against Valpo's second-chance offense. |
| SDSU returning minutes | 42.4% | Heavy turnover makes last season's numbers a loose guide for the hosts. |
Valparaiso vs South Dakota State: quick answers
When is Valparaiso vs South Dakota State?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.