USC vs California prediction: Rodney Rice's health and a rebuilt USC carry the load in Berkeley

Rice sets USC's ceiling

Eric Musselman rebuilt again. Only 24.0% of last season's USC minutes return, and the 14-man roster carries seven transfers and four freshmen. The player who makes it all work is Rodney Rice, who scored 20.3 points a game in his six appearances last season with an offensive rating of 120.9 (points produced per 100 possessions).

The catch is his foot. Rice was hurt late in the summer and his condition was described as up in the air, but he started and played in the Oct. 23 exhibition win at San Diego State, where he and Jacob Cofie sparked the late run that iced an 85-68 result. USC hasn't said anything newer. Big man Eric Reibe, the UConn transfer, had foot surgery in late July, and nothing has surfaced since Oct. 23 on whether he is available. KJ Lewis has fought an ankle problem since the summer, though he also played in the exhibition.

If Rice is limited, the burden shifts to newcomers like Jalen Cox, who averaged 17.9 points at Colgate, and Isaac Bruns, who averaged 20.6 at South Dakota. Alijah Arenas started that exhibition too, but his returning line is a warning: a 32.1% usage rate (share of possessions he finished) with a 37.6% effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes.

The free throw line

Last season's USC lived at the stripe. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 44.1%, 8th in the country. Cal's defense put opponents on the line plenty, ranking 231st in opponent free throw rate.

That looks like a clear USC edge until you hear Musselman, who has voiced concern about his team's free throw shooting. Cofie, the most reliable returner, made 60.5% of his free throws last season. Cox, at 85% from the line at Colgate, is the antidote if he handles the ball late. Cal, by contrast, shot 78.0% as a team last season, 17th nationally, though most of those shooters are gone.

Cal has to replace its shooting

Mark Madsen's roster returns just 20.5% of last season's minutes, and the departures took the jump shot with them. Cal made 36.7% of its threes last season, 36th in Division I, and John Camden alone hit 87 of them. Dai Dai Ames is at Tennessee, Justin Pippen at Ohio State, and Chris Bell is gone too.

The replacements can shoot. Nojus Indrusaitis made 38.7% of 142 attempts at Pittsburgh, and Michael Cooper averaged 13.4 points at Wright State. If they hit early, Cal can stretch a USC defense that held opponents to 31.6% from three last season. If they don't, the Bears fall back on a two-point offense that ranked 263rd.

USC's shot-blocking at the rim

That two-point weakness runs straight into USC's best returning trait. The Trojans blocked 15.3% of opponents' two-point tries last season, 7th in the country, and Cofie, who blocked 1.8 shots a game, is back. Reibe's status matters here as well.

Cal's answer inside is Lee Dort, who shot 59.7% from the field last season without attempting a three. He and Georgia transfer Jordan Ross were Cal's ACC Tipoff representatives, and Dort's ability to finish over length decides whether Cal can score without the three.

Home floor and history

This is a nonconference game at Haas Pavilion between old Pac-12 rivals, and Cal has form against in-state Big Ten visitors, having upset a heavily favored UCLA last season. The Bears were picked near the bottom of the ACC preseason poll, which only sharpens the appeal of a ranked guest. The last two meetings split, with Cal winning 71-66 at USC in November 2024.

Both teams get tune-ups first: USC opens Nov. 2 against Milwaukee, while Cal hosts Adams State and Radford in its opening week after an exhibition loss at Oregon State.

• Whether Rice and Reibe are full go after their foot problems.
• USC's free throw attempts and makes.
• Cal's three-point volume against a USC defense that limited shooters last season.