UTSA vs Seattle U prediction: Seattle U's ball-hawking defense greets a UTSA roster rebuilt from scratch
The Redhawks bring back the core of a top-25 defense, while UTSA arrives with almost no one from last season's 5-25 team.
- Seattle U's pressure should rattle a UTSA backcourt with almost no shared history, turning this into a grind decided by Redhawk takeaways.
- Maleek Arington and Seattle U's guards against UTSA transfers JJ Kelly and Preston Turner, who have never played together.
- No line is posted yet. UTSA ranked 339th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency last season, but that number describes a departed roster.
Seattle U's defense sets the terms
Seattle U won last season by making opponents miserable. The Redhawks finished 24th of 365 in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and forced turnovers on 21.4% of possessions, 11th in the country.
The man at the front of that pressure is back. Maleek Arington averaged 2.3 steals a game last season while starting every night, and he barely needed to shoot to matter. Chris Victor, entering his sixth season, keeps the identity intact.
That is a hard opening test for a UTSA team whose ball handlers will be learning each other in real time. A brand-new backcourt facing a pressure defense in an early road game is where turnovers pile up.
A UTSA roster built from scratch
Discard most of what UTSA did last season. Players on this year's roster accounted for just 13.1% of last season's minutes, so the 5-25 record describes a team that no longer exists.
The lone significant returner is Dorian Hayes, who started 23 games and shot 33.3% from three. The newcomers carry the hope. JJ Kelly posted a 58% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Ohio. Preston Turner made 44.8% of his threes at Eastern Illinois. Demari Williams handled a heavy load at Houston Christian with a 23.1% usage rate.
The roster also lists additions from Oklahoma State, Maryland, South Dakota, Murray State and Morehead State. The talent is real; the cohesion is unknown.
Shot-blockers waiting inside
Seattle U also protects the rim. The Redhawks blocked 13.7% of opponents' two-point tries last season, 17th nationally, and Will Heimbrodt swatted 2.6 shots a game.
UTSA does have a veteran big in 6-9 senior Ashton Smith, but Seattle U is slightly longer across its rotation. The Redhawks' minutes-weighted height sits at 77.1 inches.
The glass is less clear. UTSA was one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country last season, but Seattle U ranked 338th in offensive rebound rate and may not punish that.
The Redhawks have their own holes
Seattle U is not a finished product either. It returns 45.8% of last season's minutes and lost its leading scorer, Brayden Maldonado, who averaged 14.7 points. Center Austin Maurer left for Stanford.
The offense was already the weak half, ranking 277th in adjusted efficiency last season. Tyler Boston arrives from Holy Cross after scoring 14.2 points a game, and Tomas Thrastarson adds wing scoring from Washington State. Junseok Yeo and Heimbrodt give Victor two returning starters up front. If Boston settles in quickly, the Redhawks have enough scoring to let their defense do the rest.
Setting and schedule
The last meeting went Seattle U's way, 71-68 at UTSA on Dec. 22, 2025. This one moves to the Redhawk Center for a 10 PM ET tip.
The date itself needs watching. Seattle U's August non-conference release listed the game for Nov. 14, while national schedules show Nov. 11. Confirm before planning around it.
Key players
- Maleek Arington (Seattle U): Averaged 2.3 steals per game last season while starting all 35 games.
- Will Heimbrodt (Seattle U): Blocked 2.6 shots per game last season with a team-high 25.4% usage rate among returners.
- Tyler Boston (Seattle U): Scored 14.2 points per game at Holy Cross last season and shot 82.3% at the line.
- Junseok Yeo (Seattle U): Started all 34 games last season and averaged 12.0 points.
- JJ Kelly (UTSA): Posted a 58% effective field goal percentage at Ohio last season.
- Preston Turner (UTSA): Made 44.8% of his threes at Eastern Illinois last season.
- Demari Williams (UTSA): Averaged 9.7 points with a 23.1% usage rate at Houston Christian last season.
- Dorian Hayes (UTSA): Played 30.2 minutes per game last season, the most of any returning Roadrunner.
Numbers that matter
| Seattle U forced turnover rate | 21.4% | Ranked 11th nationally last season, a direct threat to UTSA's unfamiliar backcourt. |
|---|---|---|
| UTSA returning minutes | 13.1% | So little of last season's roster is back that its 5-25 record says little about this team. |
| Seattle U adjusted defense rank | 24th | Last season's final rating, with key defenders Arington and Heimbrodt returning. |
| Seattle U block rate | 13.7% | Ranked 17th last season, making the paint costly for UTSA's guards. |
| Last meeting | 71-68 | Seattle U won at UTSA on Dec. 22, 2025. |
UTSA vs Seattle U: quick answers
When is UTSA vs Seattle U?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.