Pacific vs Long Beach State prediction: Pacific and Long Beach State reintroduce themselves at the Walter Pyramid
With fewer than one in ten of last season's minutes back on either side, this early-November game tests which coach rebuilt faster.
- Expect a feeling-out game between two rebuilt rosters, with Pacific's experienced transfer guards against Long Beach State's bigger, deeper front line.
- Manhattan transfer Jaden Winston against a Long Beach State backcourt that has not yet shown who will run it.
- No line posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ranks, 115th for Pacific and 243rd for Long Beach State, are the only baseline.
Two programs starting over
Last season's numbers will tell you less about this game than usual. Pacific returns just 8.6% of last season's minutes. Long Beach State returns 5.0%. Both coaches, Dave Smart at Pacific and Chris Acker at Long Beach State, enter their third seasons with mostly new rosters.
The gap between the programs last season was real. Pacific finished 18-15 with an adjusted net efficiency ranked 115th of 365. That rating measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. Long Beach State went 10-22 and ranked 243rd. Those ratings describe teams that no longer exist. They are a starting point at best. WCC coaches picked Pacific fifth in the preseason poll, behind favorite Santa Clara.
The last meeting was close. Pacific won 69-66 at home on Nov. 12, 2025.
Pacific hands the ball to transfers
Pacific lost its two top scorers. Elias Ralph averaged 16.7 points and TJ Wainwright 13.0. The replacements come from all over the country.
Jaden Winston is the headliner. He started all 32 games at Manhattan last season, scored 15.3 points a game and made 82.3% of his free throws. He also averaged 2.6 steals. That matters for a program whose defense forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 271st last season. Dartmouth transfer Connor Amundsen adds a second ball handler who averaged 3.6 assists.
The one real returner is forward Jaion Pitt. He came off the bench and shot 66.7% from the field in a small role. Pacific opens against Bethesda on Nov. 3, so it should have at least one game behind it before this one.
The Beach goes big
Long Beach State's rebuild leans on size. Its roster averages 79.9 inches, weighted by minutes, against 75.1 for Pacific. That is the clearest physical edge in the game.
The Beach lost Gavin Sykes, who averaged 19.4 points and is now at TCU. It also lost Petar Majstorovic, now at Pepperdine. In their place comes a group of frontcourt transfers. Oregon State's Noah Amenhauser shot 57.7% and used 22% of possessions while he was on the floor. Bucknell's Grgur Brcic grabbed 4.8 rebounds in under 17 minutes a game.
The early evidence was rough. Long Beach State lost an exhibition at San Diego State 92-67 on Oct. 28. Forward Henry Lau played in that game with an undisclosed issue and scored one point. There had been no newer word on his status as of Oct. 29. The Beach visits Montana State before this, its first home game.
What style survives the turnover
Coaches keep their systems even when the players change, so last season's style numbers still carry some weight. Last season Long Beach State played fast, ranking 53rd in pace. Pacific played slow, ranking 291st. Whoever sets the tempo shapes how many possessions Pacific's guards get to work with.
Pacific's best habit was on the glass. Its defensive rebound rate, the share of opponents' missed shots it collected, ranked 8th nationally last season. Long Beach State's offensive rebounding ranked 311th. A taller Beach roster is the most direct challenge to that edge.
The Beach's weak spot was fouling. Its opponent free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 326th last season. A guard like Winston who gets to the line can take advantage of that.
Key players
- Jaden Winston (Pacific): He averaged 15.3 points and 2.6 steals as a full-time starter at Manhattan last season.
- Connor Amundsen (Pacific): He started 25 games at Dartmouth last season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.6 assists.
- Jaion Pitt (Pacific): He shot 66.7% from the field in 17.3 minutes a game off the bench last season.
- Noah Amenhauser (Long Beach State): He shot 57.7% while using 22% of possessions at Oregon State last season.
- Jack Payne (Long Beach State): He started 22 games at Idaho last season, averaging 6.6 points but shooting 31.6% from three.
- Grgur Brcic (Long Beach State): He pulled down 4.8 rebounds a game in 16.9 minutes at Bucknell last season.
Numbers that matter
| Pacific returning minutes | 8.6% | Almost none of last season's 18-15 team is back, which makes its old ratings a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| LBSU returning minutes | 5.0% | The Beach turned over its roster even more completely than Pacific did. |
| LBSU minutes-weighted height | 79.9 | Long Beach State's roster averages 79.9 inches, against 75.1 for Pacific. |
| Pacific defensive rebound % rank, last season | 8th | Pacific's best habit last season faces a much taller opponent this time. |
| LBSU exhibition result | 92-67 | The Beach lost by that score at San Diego State on Oct. 28 in its only outing so far. |
Pacific vs Long Beach State: quick answers
When is Pacific vs Long Beach State?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.