Chicago State vs California Baptist prediction: Ethan Duncan and a rebuilt California Baptist open against Chicago State

Two teams starting over

California Baptist went 25-9 last season and reached the NCAA tournament, where it lost to Kansas in the first round. Almost none of that team is left. The Lancers return 13.5% of last season's minutes, and the biggest hole belongs to Dominique Daniels Jr., who scored 23.1 points per game and is not on this season's roster.

Chicago State has even less to carry over. The Cougars went 7-25 and bring back 7.7% of last season's minutes, the rest of the rotation replaced by transfers. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for both sides. They describe programs and coaching tendencies more than the players who will actually take the floor in Riverside.

The Lancers are also new to the Big West, which they joined on July 1, 2026. Preseason voters had them in the middle of the pack: sixth in the media poll and ninth in the coaches' poll. Even the sideline carries a question. Kyle Getter, a former Notre Dame associate, has been listed as a first-year head coach, while Rick Croy led last season's team, and the change hasn't been confirmed. Chicago State is led by Landon Bussie, hired in March 2025.

Duncan steps into the spotlight

The Lancers' offense needs a new focal point, and Ethan Duncan is the obvious candidate. At Lipscomb last season he scored 10.5 points per game with a 55.7% effective field goal percentage, the version of shooting percentage that counts threes as worth 1.5 times a two. He made 36.7% from deep and 92.3% at the line.

He arrives at a program that struggled to score last season. California Baptist ranked 324th in effective field goal percentage. Chicago State's defense was worse, allowing a 56.6% effective field goal percentage that ranked 359th of 365. Last season's Cougars also let opponents shoot 59.8% on twos, dead last in Division I. If Duncan and Jordan Muller, who hit 35.9% from three last season, find clean looks early, CBU should not need much else.

The glass and the giveaways

Last season's profiles point to a fight over possessions. California Baptist grabbed 37.4% of its own misses, 15th nationally, while Chicago State's defensive rebounding ranked 336th. Second chances were CBU's way of covering a poor shooting team.

Chicago State's counter was pressure. The Cougars forced turnovers on 20.5% of possessions, 31st in the country, and Malek Robinson, their top returner, averaged 1.8 steals. California Baptist coughed it up at an 18.6% rate, which ranked 296th. With both rosters overhauled, these are tendencies rather than certainties, but they are the clearest paths for each side to steal extra shots.

A late, slow tip

This is a 10 p.m. Eastern start, and the Cougars travel to the Fowler Events Center for the second meeting in recent years; California Baptist won 74-62 at home in December 2023. Neither team liked to run last season. Chicago State's pace ranked 324th and California Baptist's ranked 295th, so a grinding game with long possessions is the natural shape.

CBU's defense was the program's anchor last season. It ranked 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and held opponents to 29.6% from three, fifth nationally. Chicago State's transfer guards, including Armari Carraway, who made 44 threes at Charleston Southern, will test whether that defense rebuilt as well as it once played.