Portland State vs Colorado State prediction: Colorado State's sharpshooting core faces a rebuilt Portland State roster

One roster returns, one starts over

This one comes down to continuity. Colorado State brings back players who accounted for 57.9% of last season's minutes from a team that went 21-13. Portland State brings back 3.7%, the remnants of a 20-11 team that has been almost entirely replaced.

The Vikings added 13 newcomers, including nine transfers and four international signees. Jase Coburn, the Big Sky Coach of the Year, has to assemble a rotation from scratch, and the Big Sky coaches still picked his team fourth, with the media picking it fifth. That faith rests on the coach, not on anything the returning players showed last season. Portland State's top returner, Charles Chukwu, played 4.3 minutes a game.

That makes last season's Portland State team numbers a weak guide here. The Vikings ranked 33rd in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), but almost none of the players who built that defense are back.

The Rams can still shoot

Ali Farokhmanesh, in his second season, kept the core of an offense that lived behind the arc. Last season Colorado State made 38.5% of its threes, 11th nationally, and took 49.0% of its shots from deep, 22nd in volume.

The shooters behind those numbers are mostly back. Josh Pascarelli hit 41.5% on 147 attempts. Jase Butler, Carey Booth and Kyle Jorgensen all shot above 40% from three as well. Brandon Rechsteiner and his 85 made threes left for Kansas State, and Jevin Muniz is gone too, but the spacing should survive.

Marist transfer Justin Menard fills the lead-guard role with 12.9 points and 3.8 assists a game last season. He also made 92.6% of his free throws, which matters late if Portland State keeps it close.

Turnovers and a crawling tempo

Colorado State's weakness last season was the ball. The Rams turned it over on 18.9% of possessions, 311th of 365. Their final preseason tune-up on Oct. 25 ended in a loss, undone by turnovers and cold shooting, so the problem hasn't gone away.

They also play slowly. Colorado State averaged 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 361st nationally. Portland State ran at 69.1, 105th, though that came from a different roster. A slow game limits the number of chances a less cohesive team gets to string runs together, which favors the home side.

Who carries Portland State

The Vikings lost their scoring engine. Terri Miller Jr. averaged 19.1 points and Jaylin Henderson 18.2 last season, and neither is on the roster.

Koren Johnson is the name to watch. He was named to the Big Sky preseason all-conference team, a projection that rests on more than his Ole Miss line: he made 19.4% of 31 threes there in limited minutes. Emil Skytt posted a 58.6% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at North Dakota State. Pacific transfer KC Ibekwe, a center, used 23% of possessions while on the floor.

The Vikings showed fight in their final exhibition on Oct. 31, leading 70-68 with 2:36 left before missing their last seven shots from the field. Closing games is still a work in progress.

What to watch

• Rams turnovers: a clean night lets the shooters decide it early.
• Ibekwe inside: Colorado State's block rate of 6.6% ranked 330th last season, so the rim may be open.
• Johnson's shot: whether his preseason billing shows up against a Pac-12 opponent.