Robert Morris vs Arkansas prediction: Calipari's rebuilt Arkansas tests Robert Morris's transfer-fueled makeover

Two teams starting over

Last season's numbers describe programs that no longer exist in the same form. Arkansas won the SEC tournament and reached the Sweet 16, then lost nearly everyone: only 15.7% of last season's minutes return, and Billy Richmond III is the lone contributor back. Robert Morris went 22-11 and returns just 24.1% of its minutes.

That matters for reading any rating. Arkansas finished last season with an adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of 128.7, sixth in the country, but Darius Acuff Jr. and his 23.5 points a game are gone. Calipari, in his third season, restocked with the nation's top freshman class plus two portal veterans, and the Razorbacks opened at No. 12 in the preseason AP poll. Treat last season's team stats as a sketch of the coach's style, not of this roster.

Andy Toole's Colonials took the same route at a smaller scale. Leading scorer Ryan Prather Jr. left for Iowa State and DeSean Goode for Miami, and four Division I transfers arrived to replace them.

Whose tempo wins

The clearest carryover is philosophy. Calipari's Arkansas played fast last season, ranking 17th of 365 in pace, and scored 90.2 points a game, second nationally. Robert Morris crawled, ranking 339th in pace.

The Razorbacks also protected the ball better than anyone: their turnover rate of 12.3 per 100 possessions ranked first in Division I last season. Robert Morris sat 250th in forcing turnovers, so the Colonials can't count on steals to slow Arkansas down. Their path to dictating tempo runs through long half-court possessions and making the Razorbacks defend.

There is a shooting thread for Robert Morris to pull. Ace Valentine hit 38.1% from three at UMBC, KJ Garris made 42.5% at Cal State Fullerton and returner Darius Livingston shot 39.4% from deep. Arkansas's defense allowed 54.3% on twos last season, 312th nationally, so whether the new group closes those gaps inside is an open question.

Extra possessions on the glass

Robert Morris's best weapon last season was the offensive glass. The Colonials rebounded 38.2% of their own misses, eighth in the country, while Arkansas ranked 233rd in defensive rebounding.

The caveat is personnel. Goode and Nikos Chitikoudis, the forwards who did much of that work, are gone. The replacements bring a different look: Jalik Dunkley averaged 6.7 rebounds as a guard at Nicholls, and Ugwuakazi blocked 2.2 shots a game off the bench at Merrimack. Arkansas carries the size edge, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.3 inches against 77.0 for Robert Morris.

Bowser and Arkansas's health

Furman transfer Cooper Bowser is the likely starter at center, and he made 76.6% of his shots there last season. He suffered a hand/wrist fracture in late September that kept him out of practice for weeks, then returned for the exhibitions. In the Oct. 28 exhibition win over Memphis he went 3-for-3 from the floor with eight rebounds and three blocks in 23 minutes.

Bowser went down during the Gonzaga exhibition, but Calipari called it cramping. Jordan Smith and Miikka Muurinen also went down in that game; no update on either had surfaced as of late October. We found nothing on Robert Morris injuries.

Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson gives Arkansas a volume scorer. He averaged 17.4 points on a 30.5% usage rate last season, and Richmond's 58.8% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) makes him a steady second option.

Robert Morris opens at Nevada on Nov. 2, so it will have game reps before arriving in Fayetteville. The programs last met on Dec. 20, 2012, a 79-74 Arkansas win.