Incarnate Word vs Tulsa prediction: Tulsa rebuilds its scoring around Ade Popoola against Incarnate Word
Tulsa lost its three top scorers from a 30-win team, and a UIW defense that sent opponents to the line constantly is the first test of who replaces them.
- Tulsa should control this on its home floor, getting to the line and spacing the Cardinals out while learning who its new scorers are.
- Ade Popoola's perimeter shooting against a UIW defense that ranked 282nd in efficiency last season.
- No spread or total has been posted. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Tulsa 53rd and UIW 264th.
Tulsa's reload starts here
Tulsa went 30-8 last season behind an offense that ranked 6th nationally in efficiency, scoring 125.1 points per 100 possessions. The players who drove it are mostly gone. Tylen Riley (15.0 points per game) is now at Cincinnati, and David Green (15.9) and Miles Barnstable (14.6) are also off the roster.
The returning group played 58.9% of last season's minutes but scored only 47.6% of the points. That gap is the story of Eric Konkol's early season: experienced role players are back, and Tulsa has to find out how much more they can carry.
Ade Popoola is the obvious first option. He started all 38 games last season and made 40.9% of his threes on 242 attempts, which is volume, not a hot streak. Tyler Behrend and Romad Dean were efficient in smaller roles, and this is a chance to see whether that holds with bigger ones.
Living at the line
Tulsa's most reliable weapon last season may be the one that transfers best to a new lineup. The Golden Hurricane ranked 44th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) at 40.8%, and they made 78.1% of those shots, 14th in the country.
Incarnate Word's defense fouled a lot. Opponents posted a free throw rate of 39.9% against the Cardinals, 308th of 365. If Tulsa's returners attack the paint the way last season's group did, this game could turn into a long night at the stripe for UIW.
Where UIW can hang around
The Cardinals went 12-19 last season, but they could shoot. They made 37.7% of their threes, 22nd nationally, nearly matching Tulsa's 19th-ranked mark. Inside the arc was a different matter: UIW made just 49.2% of its twos, 299th in the country.
Their other path to extra points is the offensive glass. UIW grabbed 34.1% of its own misses, 76th nationally. Second chances and a few made threes are how a team with a defense this porous keeps the scoreboard close.
Shape of the game
Neither team played fast last season (Tulsa 66.9 possessions per 40 minutes, UIW 65.9), so expect a game on the slower side. Tulsa also brings the size edge, with the taller rotation weighted by minutes.
The last meeting came at the Reynolds Center in November 2023, when Tulsa pulled away for an 85-71 win. Both programs look different now. What matters more for this one is how quickly Tulsa's new rotation settles, and whether UIW's shooters can make an opponent with an elite offensive track record play from behind.
Key players
- Ade Popoola (Tulsa): He averaged 10.8 points last season and shot 40.9% from three, making 99 threes.
- Tyler Behrend (Tulsa): He started all 38 games last season with an offensive rating of 124 on 53.4% shooting.
- Romad Dean (Tulsa): He posted a 133.4 offensive rating last season and made 93.5% of his free throws.
- Myles Rigsby (Tulsa): He averaged 6.2 points in 18.7 minutes last season and hit 88.6% at the line.
Numbers that matter
| Tulsa returning points | 47.6% | Less than half of last season's scoring is back, so the top options are being reassigned. |
|---|---|---|
| UIW opponent FT rate rank | 308th | The Cardinals fouled heavily last season, which plays into Tulsa's strength at the line. |
| Tulsa FT% | 78.1% | Ranked 14th nationally last season, turning trips to the line into reliable points. |
| UIW 3-point % | 37.7% | Ranked 22nd last season, the Cardinals' best route to keeping pace. |
Incarnate Word vs Tulsa: quick answers
When is Incarnate Word vs Tulsa?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.