Lincoln (MO) vs Missouri State prediction: Missouri State opens the Cuonzo Martin year three tuneup against Lincoln
A Division II exhibition in Springfield offers a first look at whether the Bears can still live at the line and finally make their free throws.
- Missouri State should control a tuneup against Division II Lincoln, with the real interest in how its new rotation takes shape.
- Watch the Bears at the foul line: last season they drew free throws at an elite rate but made them poorly.
- No spread or total has been posted. Last season's 67.7% free throw shooting is the number most likely to linger.
A tuneup, not a test
Lincoln's own schedule lists this Nov. 3 date in Springfield as an exhibition, and that framing fits. The Blue Tigers are a Division II program from the GLVC, based in Jefferson City and led by Jimmy Drew in his fourth season. Their 2026-27 roster hasn't surfaced publicly, so this game is about Missouri State.
The Bears went 16-18 last season and finished 194th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, a points-per-100-possessions margin adjusted for opponents. Cuonzo Martin enters his third season of this stint with a team that has to sort out its rotation before the games count. Trey Williams, named to the preseason All-CUSA team on Oct. 9, is the obvious place to start.
The free throw puzzle
Last season's Missouri State identity ran through the foul line. Its free throw rate, which measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 23rd in Division I. The payoff never matched the effort: the Bears made 67.7% of those attempts, 331st nationally.
The defense had the opposite problem, ranking 288th in opponent free throw rate. Whether those habits carry over into this season is the thing to watch. A Bears team that gets to the line and converts would signal a real change from last season.
Availability and setting
No Missouri State basketball injuries were listed as of Oct. 19. Nothing has surfaced about Lincoln's health.
Tip is set for 7 p.m. local at Great Southern Bank Arena. Both schools list the game in Springfield, though ESPN's Lincoln page shows Kansas City, so that entry is unverified.
Numbers that matter
| Free throw rate rank, last season | 23rd | Missouri State drew fouls at one of the highest rates in Division I in 2025-26. |
|---|---|---|
| Free throw %, last season | 67.7% | That mark ranked 331st, wasting much of the value those trips to the line created. |
| Adjusted net efficiency rank, last season | 194th | The Bears were a middle-of-the-pack Division I team at the end of 2025-26. |
| Record, last season | 16-18 | Missouri State finished below .500 in 2025-26, Martin's second season back. |
Lincoln (MO) vs Missouri State: quick answers
When is Lincoln (MO) vs Missouri State?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.