Sam Houston St Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction: Sam Houston's crashing boards test Alabama's rebuilt frontcourt in Tuscaloosa

The problem Oats named himself

Nate Oats did not dance around it at SEC Tipoff '27 this week. "You look at some of the losses we had, a lot of those...we just kind of got manhandled on glass," he said. The numbers back him up. Alabama grabbed only 67.2% of opponents' misses last season, 306th of 365 in Division I.

That makes Sam Houston an early exam. The Bearkats rebounded 37.4% of their own misses last season, 14th nationally, and that was the engine behind a 22-12 year. The Tide rebuilt the frontcourt with this in mind: Boise State transfer Drew Fielder is projected as a starter, center Collins Onyejiaka has been fully cleared after a heart condition, and 7-footer TJ St. Louis plans to enroll this fall. Sam Houston's roster has changed too, so last season's glass numbers are a guide, not a guarantee. Still, how often the Bearkats get second chances will say a lot about whether the Tide's new identity is real.

Holloway's suspension and a thin backcourt

Alabama returns only 48.7% of last season's minutes, and its biggest piece of continuity may not be on the floor. Aden Holloway, who shot 43.8% from three last season, is serving a suspension covering the preseason and the first two regular-season games, as of the latest report around Oct. 9. Whether he is available for this game depends on where it falls in Alabama's schedule, which isn't confirmed.

The guard room was already banged up. Before the Oct. 7 exhibition, Oats said Anderson Diaz and Preston Murphy Jr. had upper-body injuries and freshman Jaxon Richardson was ill. No update has followed. Alabama still beat Furman 111-93 in that exhibition. Labaron Philon Jr., who scored 22.0 points per game last season, is gone. Amari Allen and London Jemison are the returners most likely to absorb the shots.

Threes, tempo and a tired defense

Alabama's style is unlikely to change even with a new cast. Last season the Tide took 54.4% of their shots from three, the highest rate in the country, and played at the fifth-fastest pace. They also led the nation in scoring.

Sam Houston's defense is built to deny that shot. Opponents hit just 31.5% from deep against the Bearkats last season, 51st nationally. If Alabama's new shooters run cold, the Tide's own defense becomes the problem: it allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions last season, 256th, and forced turnovers less often than all but three teams. Sam Houston, which played fast itself at 38th in pace, is used to a high-possession game.

What the Bearkats bring

Chris Mudge, the Conference USA Coach of the Year in 2024 and 2026, took Sam Houston to the NIT last season. His offense scored 115.6 points per 100 possessions last season, 82nd nationally, with steady three-point shooting at 36.6%. The Bearkats added shooter Aidan McDowell and athletic wing Enel St. Bernard, while Justin Begg, Jacobe Coleman and Matt Dann return.

The turnover battle offers little help. Alabama protected the ball better than almost anyone last season, ranking sixth in turnover rate, while Sam Houston's defense ranked 246th at forcing them. Any extra possessions will have to come off the rim.

The overall gap is wide. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions better than opponents, adjusted for schedule) had Alabama at 28.2, 12th, and Sam Houston at 5.2, 112th. Roster churn on both sides makes those figures a rough starting point.