Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes prediction: Weber State's track-meet pace tests Utah's slow, grinding start
The Wildcats have allowed 101.5 points a night while racing up and down the floor, and the Utes have won two games by refusing to run.
Utah Utes covered the closing spread (Weber State Wildcats +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 154.5.
| Spread | Utah -16.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Utah should control the half court, but Weber State's breakneck pace makes the final margin and total messier than a typical big spread.
- Weber State's perimeter defense, last in Division I in opponent 3-point percentage at 48.9%, against Trey Campbell and Taison Chatman.
- Utah is -16.5, down from -19, with the total at 154.5. Weber State's games are 2-0 to the over; Utah's are 0-2.
Whose tempo wins out
Weber State has played two games and given up 101.5 points a night, which ranks 362nd of 364. Utah has played two and scored 66 and 67. One of those patterns will have to bend Tuesday night at the Huntsman Center.
The gap starts with pace, measured in possessions per 40 minutes. Weber State is averaging 79, 22nd fastest in the country. Utah sits at 65.8, 326th. The Wildcats lost 102-61 at Oregon State and 101-93 to Utah Valley, and both games flew over the total. Utah beat Long Beach State 66-63 and Towson 67-57, and both stayed under.
The Utes also start slowly. They average 27.5 first-half points, 333rd nationally, and trailed Long Beach State 40-28 at the break before rallying from a 17-point deficit. If Alex Jensen's team drags the game into the half court, Weber State's track-meet numbers shrink with it.
An open door from three
Opponents are shooting 48.9% from three against Weber State, dead last among 364 Division I teams. The broader picture is no kinder: opponents' effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, is 63.5%, 356th.
That sets up well for Utah's guards. Campbell, a fifth-year transfer from Northern Iowa, is 5-of-12 from deep, and Chatman, the Ohio State transfer, is 3-of-6. Utah's bigger edge may come inside, where it is making 60.0% of its twos, 87th nationally.
The Utes also get to the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 45.3%, 82nd. Weber State allows a rate of 51.6%, 335th. Utah's own free throw shooting has been shaky, which matters more for a big number than for the outcome.
Utah's turnovers meet little pressure
The Utes' clearest flaw is ball security. They are turning it over on 25.2% of possessions, 348th in the country, a big reason a team shooting this well has scored so little.
Weber State is not built to punish it. The Wildcats force turnovers on 13.9% of possessions, 318th. The exception is Gavin Lowe, who is averaging 3.0 steals and carrying a team-high usage rate. If Lowe turns Utah's sloppiness into run-outs, the Wildcats get the transition game they want.
Two rebuilt rosters, one familiar face
Both programs started over. Weber State returns 9.2% of last season's minutes under first-year coach Kaleb Canales, with 12 new players and two returners, ArDarius Grayson and Declan Cutler. Utah returns 8.4%. Last season's numbers for either team, including Utah's 92-89 win over Weber State a year ago, say little about these rosters.
One link runs straight through this game. Malek Gomma started every game for Weber State last season and now starts for Utah, grabbing 7.0 rebounds a night. Jackson Holcombe came over from Utah Valley, the team that just put 101 on the Wildcats.
Weber State will be without guard Alvin Jackson III for the season after he tore his ACL, leaving what was described as the youngest Division I team in the country. Utah center Fynn Schott has been out since right-leg surgery announced Sept. 18, with no timetable and no newer update. Babacar Faye's sixth-year waiver has no reported ruling.
What the market is saying
Utah was first seen at -19 in our feed and is now -16.5, a notable move toward Weber State. The total has gone the other way slightly, from 154 to 154.5.
That spread is still steep for a Utah team that failed to cover -19.5 against Long Beach State. Weber State is 0-2 against the spread, though, and lost by more than this number at Oregon State. The Wildcats also come in on three days of rest to Utah's five.
The total captures the central tension. Weber State's defense suggests Utah can score freely, while Utah's pace and slow starts have kept both of its games under.
Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes line movement and odds
| Book | Wildcats ML | Utes ML | Wildcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1000 | -2000 | +16.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +1050 | -3335 | +16.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +1500 | -3600 | +16.5 (-108) | o154.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +16.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1200 | -2200 | +16.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1200 | -3000 | +16.5 (-102) | o154.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1100 | -2500 | +16.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +1250 | -2800 | +16.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Weber State Wildcats: 52% of bets, 9% of the money; Utah Utes: 48% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Utes -15.5: 72% of bets, 89% of the money; Weber State Wildcats +15.5: 28% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 58% of bets, 51% of the money; Under 154.5: 42% of bets, 49% of the money.
Key players
- Trey Campbell (Utah): The Northern Iowa transfer is averaging 14.5 points and 7.0 assists while playing 36.0 minutes a night.
- Jackson Holcombe (Utah): He averaged 16.0 points at Utah Valley last season and is blocking 2.5 shots a game for Utah.
- Malek Gomma (Utah): The former Weber State starter, who averaged 6.9 rebounds there last season, is pulling down 7.0 against his old school's new roster.
- Taison Chatman (Utah): He carries a 72.2% effective field goal percentage off the Ohio State transfer path.
- ArDarius Grayson (Weber State): One of two returners, he leads the team at 15.5 points and is making 40% of his threes.
- Mason Abittan (Weber State): He scored 22 against Utah Valley and is shooting 50% from three.
- Gavin Lowe (Weber State): He leads the team with a 28.7% usage rate and 3.0 steals but is shooting 36% from the field.
- Augustine Ekwe (Weber State): The New Mexico State transfer is averaging 11.0 points on 57.9% shooting.
Numbers that matter
| Weber State pace | 79 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 22nd fastest, against a Utah team ranked 326th. |
|---|---|---|
| Weber State opponent 3-point % | 48.9% | Last among 364 Division I teams, an opening for Utah's shooters. |
| Utah turnover rate | 25.2% | Ranks 348th, but Weber State forces turnovers at a rate ranked 318th. |
| Spread | -18.5 | Utah opened at -19 in our feed, and the line has moved slightly toward Weber State. |
| Total | 155 | Up from 154; Weber State's games are 2-0 to the over and Utah's are 0-2. |
Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes: quick answers
What was the final score of Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
Weber State Wildcats 64, Utah Utes 85 (final). Utah Utes covered the closing spread (Weber State Wildcats +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 154.5.
Who is favored in Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
Utah is favored by 16.5 points (Utah -16.5).
What is the over/under for Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
Yes: Weber State Wildcats opened +18.5 and is now +16.5, and the total moved from 153.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Weber State Wildcats vs Utah Utes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Weber State Wildcats: 52% of bets, 9% of the money; Utah Utes: 48% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Utes -15.5: 72% of bets, 89% of the money; Weber State Wildcats +15.5: 28% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 58% of bets, 51% of the money; Under 154.5: 42% of bets, 49% of the money.