Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes prediction: Duquesne's interior defense tests Washington State's two-guard offense
A rebuilt Cougars team that can't score inside visits a Dukes defense that has shut down the paint through two home wins.
Washington St Cougars covered the closing spread (Washington St Cougars +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 145.5.
| Spread | Duquesne -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 145.5 |
- Expect a slow, physical game. Duquesne leans on interior defense and turnovers while Washington State needs Houston and Harrell to keep hitting jumpers.
- Washington State's guards face a Duquesne defense holding opponents to 35.4% on twos, 19th nationally.
- Duquesne opened at -6.0 and sits at -4.75, with the total at 148.5. Every lined game for both teams has gone under.
The paint is closed
Washington State has played two games with a roster that returns almost none of last season's minutes, and both ended in losses. Duquesne is unbeaten at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse and is favored again Tuesday night. The question is whether a Dukes defense that has walled off the rim can smother an offense running mostly through two guards.
The Cougars have made 43.7% of their two-point shots, 332nd of 364 Division I teams. Duquesne has held opponents to 35.4% inside the arc, 19th nationally. Two games make a small sample, but those two numbers point the same way. Washington State also rarely draws fouls: its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 350th. If the Cougars can't score at the rim or the line, every possession turns into a jump shot.
That puts the load on Lazerek Houston, the projected point guard, and Jaylen Harrell. Houston scored a game-best 31 at High Point. Harrell, moved into the starting lineup Saturday, has an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 72.5%. The Cougars' best opening is outside, where Duquesne has allowed opponents to shoot 45.7% from three.
Extra possessions for the Dukes
Duquesne forces turnovers on 23.5% of opponent possessions, 68th nationally. Washington State gives the ball away on 19.4% of its own trips, 250th. Arness Lawson leads that pressure with three steals a game.
The Dukes also finish possessions on the glass. They rebound 77.6% of opponents' misses, 46th nationally, and Kerem Konan averages 8.5 boards. Ege Demir, the Oregon transfer, added eight rebounds and two blocks in his debut against Purdue Fort Wayne. Against a Cougars frontcourt where Tyler Kropp has yet to score, those extra possessions could make up for a lot of missed shots.
Duquesne's jumper is the weak spot
Duquesne has its own scoring problem. The Dukes are shooting 26.3% from three, 311th nationally, and Izaiah Pasha has missed all five of his attempts. They have scored by attacking inside and drawing contact.
Washington State's defense may give them an opening outside anyway. The Cougars have allowed opponents to shoot 44.4% from three, 356th nationally. Yoav Berman is the Duquesne shooter most likely to take advantage. The Queens transfer leads the team at 18.0 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of 86.1%.
A roster built from scratch
David Riley rebuilt Washington State through the transfer portal, and its returning-minutes figure is 0.1%. That makes last season's team numbers close to meaningless. Duquesne, under third-year coach Dru Joyce III, returns 28.8% of its minutes.
The Cougars' rotation is still unsettled. Ronnie Harrison, projected as the leading scorer, averaged 14.7 points at East Texas A&M last season, but a Nov. 7 game story said it was unclear when Harrison might return. Pedro Sancho Moraga wore a boot for a foot injury as of Oct. 21, and there has been no update since. Riley benched Casey Jones and Jamari Phillips Saturday and started Sebastian Akins, who is shooting 23.8% from the field. Duquesne has reported no injuries.
Market leans toward a grind
Duquesne opened at -6.0 in our feed and has drifted to -4.75, so money has moved toward Washington State. The Cougars covered as 12.5-point underdogs at High Point after losing at home to Davidson as favorites. Duquesne failed to cover -9.5 against Purdue Fort Wayne, a team that finished 258th in adjusted net efficiency last season.
The total sits at 148.5. Washington State plays at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 340th nationally, and all three lined games involving these teams went under. Duquesne's interior defense and Washington State's slow pace both point toward fewer points.
Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Dukes ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +133 | -167 | +3.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | +3.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 | +3.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o145.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +138 | -166 | +3.5 (-108) | o144.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -165 | +2.5 (+100) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | +3.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington St Cougars: 30% of bets, 38% of the money; Duquesne Dukes: 70% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Duquesne Dukes -2.5: 80% of bets, 84% of the money; Washington St Cougars +2.5: 20% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 58% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 145.5: 42% of bets, 80% of the money.
Key players
- Lazerek Houston (Washington State): Scored a game-best 31 at High Point and is shooting 55.6% from three this season.
- Jaylen Harrell (Washington State): Averages 15.5 points with a 72.5% effective field goal percentage, though a knee issue was noted in the preseason.
- Sebastian Akins (Washington State): Moved into the starting lineup Saturday despite shooting 23.8% from the field.
- Yoav Berman (Duquesne): Leads the Dukes with 18.0 points per game and has made 5 of 9 threes.
- Kerem Konan (Duquesne): Averages 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds, anchoring the Duquesne glass.
- Arness Lawson (Duquesne): Averages 3.0 steals a game, the sharpest edge of Duquesne's turnover pressure.
Numbers that matter
| Duquesne opponent 2-point % | 35.4% | Ranks 19th nationally and goes straight at Washington State's weakness inside. |
|---|---|---|
| Washington State 2-point % | 43.7% | Ranks 332nd of 364, leaving the Cougars dependent on guard jumpers. |
| Duquesne forced turnover rate | 23.5% | Ranks 68th, against a Cougars offense that ranks 250th in ball security. |
| Spread | -4.75 | Duquesne opened at -6.0 in our feed, so the line has moved toward Washington State. |
| Washington State returning minutes | 0.1% | A full rebuild, which makes last season's ratings a weak guide. |
Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes: quick answers
What was the final score of Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
Washington St Cougars 71, Duquesne Dukes 72 (final). Washington St Cougars covered the closing spread (Washington St Cougars +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 145.5.
Who is favored in Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
Duquesne is favored by 3.5 points (Duquesne -3.5).
What is the over/under for Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
The total is 145.5 points.
When is Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
Yes: Washington St Cougars opened +5.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Washington St Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington St Cougars: 30% of bets, 38% of the money; Duquesne Dukes: 70% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Duquesne Dukes -2.5: 80% of bets, 84% of the money; Washington St Cougars +2.5: 20% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 58% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 145.5: 42% of bets, 80% of the money.