UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix prediction: Jerod Haase's rebuilt UNCG faces its first real test at Elon
The Spartans bring back almost none of last season's minutes, and their only game so far came against a non-Division I team, so Friday's trip shows what this roster actually is.
| Spread | Elon -9 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 152.5 |
- Elon's frontcourt duo of Josh Dalton and Hunter Harding, with Raúl Villar running the point, should set the terms against a UNCG roster assembled almost entirely this offseason.
- Watch the forwards: Cameron Grant scored 19 in UNCG's opener, and Dalton scored 21 in his Elon debut.
- Elon is favored by 9, up from -7.25 when our feed first saw the game; UNCG returns just 2.1% of last season's minutes.
A roster built from scratch
Jerod Haase is in his first season at UNC Greensboro, taking over from Mike Jones. He inherited almost nothing. Players on this season's roster logged just 2.1% of UNCG's minutes last season and scored 1.7% of its points. Justin Neely, who averaged 17.9 points, is now at Colorado. KJ Younger, who averaged 15.1, went to Texas State.
That makes last season's numbers a poor guide. The 2025-26 Spartans went 15-19 and ranked 353rd of 365 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Almost none of those players remain.
The new group's only evidence so far is a 96-43 home win over Milligan, which played it as an exhibition. Six Spartans scored in double figures, and the scoring came from new places. Cameron Grant, who averaged 2.1 points in a reserve role at Stanford last season, led with 19 points and 9 rebounds. Davidson transfer RJ Greer had a career-high 15, and Dionte Neal ran the offense with 7 assists. Every UNCG team stat from that night was built against a non-Division I opponent, so treat them as noise. Friday is the first game that counts as a measuring stick.
Elon's newcomers already delivered
Elon has turned over its roster too. It returns 27.9% of last season's minutes and lost Chandler Cuthrell, who averaged 19.8 points. Coaches picked the Phoenix 8th of 13 in the CAA. The opener suggested the new pieces fit.
Elon won 84-71 at Columbia as a 4.5-point underdog, beating an opponent ranked 190th in our adjusted net ratings. Loyola Marymount transfer Josh Dalton scored 21 on 8-of-13 shooting, a big step up from the 3.6 points he averaged there last season. Center Hunter Harding nearly had a triple-double with 15 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Charlotte transfer Raúl Villar, expected to run the point, added 7 assists.
The returning guards give the offense a second layer. Bryson Cokley shot 39.2% from three last season and scored 13 at Columbia. Randall Pettus II started 31 games a year ago. Billy Taylor, in his fifth season, has a team that already won a road game.
Size inside, risk on the glass
Elon is the bigger team. Its minutes-weighted average height is 78.2 inches, against UNCG's 76.3. At Columbia the Phoenix played like it: threes made up just 20.0% of their shots, which ranked 357th of 360. They worked the ball through Harding and Dalton and scored inside.
The weak spot was defensive rebounding. Elon grabbed only 58.8% of Columbia's misses, which ranked 323rd nationally. That number is from one game, but it is the opening a smaller, unproven UNCG team will need. Grant pulled down 9 rebounds and reserve Brock Mishak had 8 in the opener. If the Spartans can win extra possessions on the offensive glass, they can stay close despite giving up size.
The line and the series
The market has moved toward the home team. Elon was -7.25 when our feed first saw the game and now sits at -9 across 10 books. The total dipped from 154.5 to 153.5. Elon's game at Columbia closed at 153.5 and went over.
The matchup also has some history. Elon leads the series 28-18 and has won the last two meetings. The most recent was a 92-90 overtime win in Greensboro last November, and Elon won 73-69 at home the season before. Neither of those UNCG rosters is around anymore.
The trip down I-40 is short. UNCG had three days of rest and Elon had four. The Spartans' road opener against a Triad neighbor is where the Milligan blowout gets checked against Division I opposition.
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix line movement and odds
| Book | Spartans ML | Phoenix ML | Spartans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +325 | -425 | +8.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +310 | -435 | +8.5 (-109) | o151.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +330 | -425 | +8.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +320 | -425 | +8.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +325 | -425 | +9 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +330 | -430 | +8.5 (-104) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -425 | +8.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +310 | -400 | +9 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix
On the Kalshi moneyline: UNC Greensboro Spartans: 53% of bets, 25% of the money; Elon Phoenix: 47% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Elon Phoenix -7.5: 63% of bets, 52% of the money; UNC Greensboro Spartans +7.5: 37% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 27% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 151.5: 73% of bets, 97% of the money.
Key players
- Cameron Grant (UNC Greensboro): Led the opener with 19 points and 9 rebounds after averaging 2.1 points at Stanford last season.
- RJ Greer (UNC Greensboro): Scored a career-high 15 against Milligan, hitting 3 of 5 from three.
- Dionte Neal (UNC Greensboro): Posted 14 points and 7 assists on 7-of-8 shooting in the opener.
- Josh Dalton (Elon): Scored 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting in his Elon debut at Columbia.
- Hunter Harding (Elon): Finished with 15 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists against Columbia.
- Raúl Villar (Elon): Handed out 7 assists in 27 minutes in the opener.
- Bryson Cokley (Elon): Shot 39.2% from three last season and scored 13 at Columbia.
Numbers that matter
| UNCG returning minutes | 2.1% | Haase's first roster is almost entirely new, so last season's numbers say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Current spread | -9.0 | Elon has moved up from -7.25 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Elon defensive rebound rate | 58.8% | It ranked 323rd at Columbia and is the clearest opening for an undersized UNCG. |
| Elon 3-point attempt rate | 20.0% | It ranked 357th, showing the Phoenix leaned on their size inside in the opener. |
| Total | 153.5 | Down from 154.5, and the same number Elon's Columbia game closed at before going over. |
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix: quick answers
Who is favored in UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix?
Elon is favored by 9 points (Elon -9).
What is the over/under for UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix?
The total is 152.5 points.
When is UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix?
Yes: UNC Greensboro Spartans opened +7.5 and is now +8.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Elon Phoenix?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UNC Greensboro Spartans: 53% of bets, 25% of the money; Elon Phoenix: 47% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Elon Phoenix -7.5: 63% of bets, 52% of the money; UNC Greensboro Spartans +7.5: 37% of bets, 48% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 27% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 151.5: 73% of bets, 97% of the money.