UMass Lowell vs Massachusetts prediction: UMass Lowell returns almost no one for its trip to Amherst

Lowell starts nearly from scratch

The most important number in this game belongs to UMass Lowell's roster sheet. Players on this season's River Hawks played just 11.2% of last season's minutes. They also scored only 9.1% of last season's points. Pat Duquette, in his 14th season, is effectively introducing a new team to an old rival.

The departures cut deep. Angel Montas Jr., last season's leading scorer at 15.8 points per game, is now at Toledo. Starting guard Darrel Yepdo left for Vermont. Victor Okojie is the most experienced returner, a forward who started six games last season.

The incoming group carries more volume than proof. The most efficient newcomer is Eastern Kentucky transfer Jayden Harris, who posted a 115.7 offensive rating last season in limited minutes. The official roster lists freshmen Jasiah Cannady, Max Ellis, Elhadji Diallo and Jaden Flemons. America East coaches picked Lowell seventh in the preseason poll, and the program is in a rebuilding phase.

UMass keeps its point guard

UMass turned over plenty too, just not as much. Its current players logged 41.6% of last season's minutes. The two biggest losses were Leonardo Bettiol, who scored 18.1 points per game, and Marcus Banks Jr., who added 16.7.

The constant is Danny Carbuccia. The sophomore averaged 6.3 assists last season and is expected to run the offense again. His weakness was the foul line, where he shot 38.8%, so teams may be happy to put him there late.

The new scoring has to come from transfers. Junjie Wang, a 6-foot-9 forward from San Francisco, hit 34.2% of his threes last season. Northwestern transfer Jordan Clayton made 41% from deep. Frank Martin's team went 3-0 in exhibitions and opens the regular season at Troy, so it will have two weeks of real games behind it before Lowell arrives.

Second chances and free throws

Last season's team profiles carry less weight with this much roster churn, but two of Martin's habits tend to travel. UMass grabbed 74.7% of opponents' misses, which ranked 15th in Division I. Lowell was strong on the other end of that exchange, rebounding 34.8% of its own misses (61st). Whether Lowell's new forwards can keep up that work on the glass is a real question.

Fouls are the bigger UMass worry. The Minutemen allowed a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 43.8%, which ranked 349th. Neither team cashed in at the line, though. UMass shot 67.2% on free throws and Lowell shot 66.7%, both near the bottom of the country. A close finish could come down to misses at the stripe.

Last season's gap and the rivalry

Adjusted efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions and adjusts for opponents, framed last season's gap clearly. UMass finished 188th in adjusted net efficiency. Lowell finished 319th, and those are the only ratings available before either team plays.

The series has been played in Amherst each of the past three years, and it has swung. UMass won 80-60 last December. Lowell won 96-83 in 2024, a reminder that this game doesn't always follow the rankings. UMass had no injuries listed as of Oct. 30, and no availability news has surfaced for Lowell.