Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles prediction: Marcis Ponder and Florida State's size test an undersized Troy
A 7-foot freshman, a Troy team that can't finish around the basket and a spread that keeps growing point to a long night on the glass for the Trojans.
| Spread | Florida State -22.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- Florida State's length should control the paint and the boards. Troy needs Donovan Oday to score big just to keep the margin manageable.
- Marcis Ponder against Troy's defensive rebounding, which ranks 289th nationally after one game.
- Florida State is favored by 22.5, up from 19.25 when our feed first saw it, and the total climbed to 159.5.
Ponder and the size gap
Florida State plays big. Its rotation averages 79.2 inches, weighted by minutes, against Troy's 76.8, and the Seminoles' new 7-foot freshman made that gap obvious in his debut. Marcis Ponder had 15 points and 11 rebounds in 20 minutes of the 112-69 opener against Florida A&M.
Troy's opening loss to Massachusetts showed where that size will hurt. The Trojans grabbed only 63.6% of available defensive rebounds, 289th in Division I. Their block rate, the share of opponent two-point tries they swat, sat at 2.4%, 344th. Florida State hit 66.0% of its twos in the opener, and nothing Troy showed against UMass suggests it can bother that.
Troy leans on Oday
Troy's offense barely functioned in its first game under new coach Adam Howard. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes at 1.5 times their value, was 39.8%, 325th nationally. The Trojans scored 60 points at home against a UMass team ranked 188th in adjusted net efficiency.
One player carried them. Donovan Oday, a fifth-year guard who arrived late from Northern Kentucky, had 21 points, 12 rebounds and six steals in his Troy debut. The help around him went cold: Robert Davis Jr., an Old Dominion transfer, went 0-for-5, all from three. The Trojans did protect the ball, with a 13.0 turnover rate that ranked 60th, and that is the one habit that can keep this from getting away early.
Two rebuilt rosters
Both teams turned over nearly everything, so last season's numbers say little. Troy returns only 9.0% of last season's minutes. It lost Thomas Dowd to Auburn and both Campbells to Liberty from a team that went 22-12. Florida State returns 6.3%, and its top returner, AJ Swinton, is out with a suspension for violating team rules that dates to Oct. 29.
The gap shows up in the talent each side brought in. Coach Luke Loucks, in his second season, added Kam Taylor, who averaged 18.9 points at UNC Asheville last season, plus Sebastian Rancik from Colorado and Anthony Robinson II from Missouri. Rancik scored 25 in the opener. For reference only, last season's final adjusted net efficiency ranked Florida State 67th and Troy 148th. Troy is 1-4 all time against the Seminoles, and this is the first meeting since 2022-23.
A line that keeps climbing
The market has moved toward Florida State. The spread opened in our feed at 19.25 and now sits at 22.5. The total rose from 154.5 to 159.5.
Tempo explains part of the total. Florida State played at 78 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 51st fastest. Troy played at 68.5, 261st.
Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles line movement and odds
| Book | Trojans ML | Seminoles ML | Trojans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1800 | -10000 | +22.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +22.5 (-109) | o159.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +2000 | -6500 | +22.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +2000 | -7500 | +22.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +22.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2400 | -10000 | +22.5 (-114) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +22.5 (-110) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +22.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles
On the Kalshi moneyline: Troy Trojans: 44% of bets, 2% of the money; Florida St Seminoles: 56% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida St Seminoles -23.5: 69% of bets, 67% of the money; Troy Trojans +23.5: 31% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 35% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 159.5: 65% of bets, 58% of the money.
Key players
- Marcis Ponder (Florida State): The 7-footer posted 15 points and 11 rebounds on 83.3% shooting in his debut.
- Sebastian Rancik (Florida State): He led the opener with 25 points and a 75% effective field goal percentage.
- Kam Taylor (Florida State): He averaged 18.9 points last season at UNC Asheville and added 15 in his Florida State debut.
- Anthony Robinson II (Florida State): He filled the box in the opener with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists.
- Donovan Oday (Troy): He had 21 points, 12 rebounds and six steals in his Troy debut.
- Jacoi Hutchinson (Troy): He scored 10 with 5 assists against UMass but shot 3-for-10.
- Caden Diggs (Troy): He used 25.9% of possessions off the bench but made just 2 of 9 shots.
- Kerrington Kiel (Troy): He is Troy's top returner after playing 16.1 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Troy defensive rebound % | 63.6% | It ranked 289th after the UMass loss, a problem against a bigger Florida State lineup. |
|---|---|---|
| Average height, minutes-weighted | 79.2 | Florida State's rotation in inches, against Troy's 76.8. |
| Troy effective FG% | 39.8% | It ranked 325th in a 60-point home loss. |
| Spread | -22.5 | Florida State's line, up from -19.25 when our feed first recorded it. |
| Total | 159.5 | Up from 154.5, with Florida State's opener played at a 78-possession pace. |
Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles: quick answers
Who is favored in Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles?
Florida State is favored by 22.5 points (Florida State -22.5).
What is the over/under for Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles?
Yes: Troy Trojans opened +18.5 and is now +22.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Troy Trojans vs Florida St Seminoles?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Troy Trojans: 44% of bets, 2% of the money; Florida St Seminoles: 56% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida St Seminoles -23.5: 69% of bets, 67% of the money; Troy Trojans +23.5: 31% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 159.5: 35% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 159.5: 65% of bets, 58% of the money.