Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros prediction: Texas State's extra-possession machine tests UTRGV's brand-new roster
The Bobcats crash the glass and jump passing lanes, and a rebuilt Vaqueros team has been loose with the ball.
Texas State Bobcats covered the closing spread (Texas State Bobcats -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 137.5.
| Spread | Texas State -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 138 |
- Texas State should win the possession battle through offensive rebounds and steals. UTRGV's defense keeps it close only if the Vaqueros protect the ball.
- DJ Hall, Robert Fields and Texas State's rim attack against Bobby Crawford Jr. and a UTRGV defense blocking 16.4% of opponent twos.
- Texas State is a 6.5-point road favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw it. UTRGV failed to cover -8.5 against Prairie View A&M.
The fight for extra shots
Texas State opens its first season in the rebuilt Pac-12 with its first trip away from San Marcos, and the Bobcats are laying points in a gym full of strangers to each other. UTRGV returns just 7.7% of last season's minutes under first-year coach Brandon Chambers. Tonight tests whether a team that new can stop handing away possessions.
The Bobcats have grabbed 46.0% of their own misses, 17th in Division I. They have also forced turnovers on 25.2% of opponent possessions, 44th nationally. Kaden Gumbs leads that pressure with 3.0 steals per game. UTRGV turns the ball over on 20.4% of its trips, which ranks 282nd. That gap is the clearest edge in the packet.
Texas State's numbers carry a caveat. A 135-66 rout of Howard Payne, a program scoring record, inflates everything. The opener was a more honest guide: a 67-55 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
A three-point wall nobody climbs
UTRGV's headline stat is remarkable. Opponents have made 15.7% of their threes, second in the country. It may matter less here than usual, because Texas State barely shoots from outside. Only 30.4% of the Bobcats' shots have been threes, which ranks 341st.
They live inside and at the line instead. Texas State's free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, sits at 53.6%, 31st nationally. Center Robert Fields has made 83.3% of his shots without attempting a three.
The real counter is UTRGV's shot-blocking. The Vaqueros block 16.4% of opponent two-point tries, 51st in the country, and Bobby Crawford Jr. averages 2.0 blocks. If Crawford stays out of foul trouble, Texas State's paint-first plan gets harder.
UTRGV still finding its scorers
Chambers' offense runs through Jace Posey, the TCU transfer who averages 17.0 points and 8.0 rebounds. He scored 22 against Prairie View A&M. Posey and Oregon transfer Devon Pryor combined for 14 of the first 18 second-half points in that 68-63 win.
The shooting is shakier. B.B. Knight has made 4 of 15 threes. Pryor is shooting 31.6% from the field. The team's 60.7% free-throw mark ranks 324th, a real problem if this game is close late.
The number and the history
The market has not budged. Texas State sits at -6.5 with a total of 143.5, both unchanged from the first line our feed recorded, across nine books. Each team went under the total in its only game with a line.
Texas State covered as a 10.5-point favorite in its opener. UTRGV failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite against Prairie View A&M, a team ranked 308th in adjusted net efficiency.
UTRGV leads the all-time series 22-17. The Bobcats also bring five days of rest to UTRGV's three. No injuries have been reported for either team. Texas State was listed with none as of Nov. 7.
What to watch - Texas State's offensive rebounds in the first 10 minutes - UTRGV's turnover count against Gumbs' pressure - Crawford's foul total as Hall and Fields attack the rim
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros line movement and odds
| Book | Bobcats ML | Vaqueros ML | Bobcats spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -225 | +185 | -5.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -245 | +190 | -5.5 (-107) | o137.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | -230 | +190 | -5.5 (-112) | o138.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -240 | +200 | -5.5 (-115) | o137.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -235 | +190 | -5.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -210 | +172 | -5.5 (-102) | o137.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -240 | +190 | -5.5 (-105) | o137.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -240 | +196 | -5.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas State Bobcats: 68% of bets, 80% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 32% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas State Bobcats -4.5: 51% of bets, 31% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +4.5: 49% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 37% of bets, 25% of the money; Under 137.5: 63% of bets, 75% of the money.
Key players
- DJ Hall (Texas State): Hall averages 15.5 points on a 26.2% usage rate, matching the 15.6 he averaged last season.
- Paul Djobet (Texas State): Djobet has a 67.6% effective field goal rate and scored 21 against Howard Payne.
- Robert Fields (Texas State): Fields has made 83.3% of his shots while averaging 13.5 points in 20.5 minutes.
- Kaden Gumbs (Texas State): Gumbs averages 3.0 steals and 4.0 assists while scoring sparingly.
- Jace Posey (UT Rio Grande Valley): Posey averages 17.0 points and 8.0 rebounds and scored 22 against Prairie View A&M.
- B.B. Knight (UT Rio Grande Valley): Knight scores 14.0 points per game but has made only 4 of 15 threes.
- Bobby Crawford Jr. (UT Rio Grande Valley): Crawford averages 2.0 blocks and has not missed a field goal in two games.
Numbers that matter
| Texas State offensive rebound rate | 46.0% | Ranks 17th nationally and drives the Bobcats' extra possessions. |
|---|---|---|
| UTRGV turnover rate | 20.4% | Ranks 282nd, facing a defense that forces turnovers at the 44th-best rate. |
| UTRGV opponent 3-point % | 15.7% | Second in the country, but Texas State's three-point attempt rate ranks 341st. |
| UTRGV returning minutes | 7.7% | Almost nothing carries over from last season, so last season's UTRGV numbers say little. |
| Spread | -6.5 | Texas State's number on the road, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: quick answers
What was the final score of Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
Texas State Bobcats 72, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 65 (final). Texas State Bobcats covered the closing spread (Texas State Bobcats -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 137.5.
Who is favored in Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
Texas State is favored by 5.5 points (Texas State -5.5).
What is the over/under for Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
The total is 138 points.
When is Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
Yes: Texas State Bobcats opened -8.5 and is now -5.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 137.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas State Bobcats: 68% of bets, 80% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 32% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Texas State Bobcats -4.5: 51% of bets, 31% of the money; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +4.5: 49% of bets, 69% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 37% of bets, 25% of the money; Under 137.5: 63% of bets, 75% of the money.