Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers prediction: Will Wade's court-built LSU roster gets its second test against Texas Southern
LSU's rebuilt roster looked complete in a 43-point opener, but a Texas Southern team that lives at the free-throw line tests a 30.5-point spread.
| Spread | LSU -36 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 161 |
- LSU should control the paint and the glass early, with Texas Southern scraping for points at the free-throw line.
- Texas Southern's foul-drawing guards against an LSU defense that sent New Orleans to the line often in the opener.
- LSU is favored by 35.5 with a 162.5 total; the line has moved from LSU -30.5 and the total from 159.5 since first posted; LSU played at the 20th-fastest pace in its opener.
A roster assembled in court
No one on tonight's LSU roster played for the Tigers last season. Will Wade's return rebuilt the program almost entirely through transfers, and several of those players reached the floor through injunctions rather than routine clearance. Texas Southern, picked ninth in the SWAC, gets the second look at the group.
The first look was lopsided. LSU beat New Orleans 100-57 and led 53-17 at halftime. Donovan Dent, the UCLA transfer, ran the offense with 19 points and 10 assists. Saliou Niang added 14 points and 14 rebounds, and Michael Ruzic scored 17 off the bench.
The legal questions remain open. Dent and Niang were ruled eligible Oct. 20, and Dent's ruling reportedly covers the full season, though an appeal is expected. Skyy Clark has only temporary eligibility. As of about Nov. 1, filings were due today, with a verdict likely in mid-to-late November. Clark started the opener but went 0-of-5. Ruzic is cleared, at least for now. RJ Luis Jr. is not rostered and is making a second legal push to play.
Texas Southern starts over too
The visitors lost 79-103 at Grand Canyon on Monday. Grand Canyon ranks 59th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Texas Southern still covered as a 28.5-point underdog. Players on this roster account for just 21.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little.
There is a sideline subplot. Johnny Jones, Texas Southern's coach through last season, is now an assistant on Wade's staff in Baton Rouge.
Jason Kimbrough was the most efficient guard at Grand Canyon, with 14 points and an offensive rating of 127. Louisiana transfer Karris Bilal took the most shots, using 41.1% of possessions while he was on the floor, but he made only 20% of his field goals.
Points at the line, problems inside
Texas Southern's best route to points is the free-throw line. In its opener its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 67.8%, eighth in Division I. LSU's defense allowed a 62.3% rate to New Orleans, 338th. A parade to the line slows the game and is the clearest way for Texas Southern to stay within a bigger number now that LSU is a 35.5-point favorite. Like every figure here, those rates come from a single game.
The other end looks harder for the Tigers from Houston. Grand Canyon made 71.0% of its twos against them, 352nd in the country. Texas Southern also grabbed only 51.4% of available defensive rebounds. LSU made 66.7% of its twos in its opener, 40th in the country, and rebounded 40.0% of its own misses. Expect LSU's size to get repeated chances at the rim.
Pace and a big number
LSU's spread has moved from 30.5 to 35.5 since our feed first recorded it, and the total has gone from 159.5 to 162.5. Both teams pushed the pace in their openers. LSU ran 81.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 20th in the country, and Texas Southern ran 78.
The two openers went different ways for the total. LSU's blowout stayed under its number because New Orleans managed only 57 points. Texas Southern's game went over because its defense gave up 103. Whether the total falls short of 162.5 depends on whether Texas Southern can score in the halfcourt. Its 25.0% three-point shooting at Grand Canyon suggests that will be hard.
Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Tigers ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +36.5 (-118) | o161.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +36.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +36.5 (-115) | o160.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +35.5 (-105) | o160.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +12000 | -100000 | +36 (-105) | o161.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +35.5 (-104) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +36.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +36.5 (-110) | o161 (-110) |
Where the money is on Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Southern Tigers: 89% of bets, 3% of the money; LSU Tigers: 11% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: LSU Tigers -35.5: 66% of bets, 91% of the money; Texas Southern Tigers +35.5: 34% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 72% of bets, 75% of the money; Under 161.5: 28% of bets, 25% of the money.
Key players
- Donovan Dent (LSU): Posted 19 points and 10 assists with a 157.4 offensive rating in the opener.
- Saliou Niang (LSU): Had 14 points, 14 rebounds and six steals in 23 minutes against New Orleans.
- Michael Ruzic (LSU): Scored 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting in 25 minutes in his debut.
- Skyy Clark (LSU): Shot 42.7% from three at UCLA last season but went 0-of-5 in the opener.
- Jason Kimbrough (Texas Southern): Scored 14 points on 55.6% shooting with three steals at Grand Canyon.
- Karris Bilal (Texas Southern): Scored 15 points with a 41.1% usage rate but shot 20% from the field.
- Xander Wedlow (Texas Southern): Scored 13 points in 15 minutes on 83.3% shooting.
Numbers that matter
| LSU spread | -30.5 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the line; Texas Southern covered +28.5 at Grand Canyon. |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern free throw rate | 67.8% | Eighth in Division I in the opener, and the visitors' clearest source of points. |
| Opponent 2-point % vs. Texas Southern | 71.0% | Ranked 352nd, an opening for LSU's interior scoring. |
| LSU returning minutes | 0.0% | No one on the roster played for LSU last season, so last season's team numbers don't apply. |
| LSU pace | 81.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 20th nationally, set against a 159.5 total. |
Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers?
LSU is favored by 36 points (LSU -36).
What is the over/under for Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers?
The total is 161 points.
When is Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers?
Yes: Texas Southern Tigers opened +30.5 and is now +36.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 161.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Texas Southern Tigers vs LSU Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Texas Southern Tigers: 89% of bets, 3% of the money; LSU Tigers: 11% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: LSU Tigers -35.5: 66% of bets, 91% of the money; Texas Southern Tigers +35.5: 34% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 72% of bets, 75% of the money; Under 161.5: 28% of bets, 25% of the money.