Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves prediction: UT Martin's sloppy hands and Arkansas State's thin glass collide in Jonesboro
Both rebuilt rosters give away possessions in different ways, and the home team's free-throw shooting could decide whether a shrinking spread holds.
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks covered the closing spread (Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +5.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
| Spread | Arkansas State -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155.5 |
- Arkansas State wants a track meet at home, but UT Martin's offensive rebounding and the Red Wolves' foul-line misses can keep this tight.
- Davi Remagen, averaging 21.5 points, against an Arkansas State defense that lets opponents take 51.7% of their shots from three.
- Arkansas State opened our feed at -8.5 and sits at -6.5; the Red Wolves have made 43.6% of their free throws, last nationally.
Possessions leak both ways
Arkansas State was picked first in the Sun Belt's preseason coaches' poll, yet almost nobody from last season is still around. The Red Wolves bring back 5.5% of last season's minutes. UT Martin, chasing the first NCAA tournament bid in program history, is 0-2 after a 100-98 double-overtime loss at Tulane and a 75-74 loss at IU Indianapolis in which it led for most of the night.
The Skyhawks' problem is the ball. They have turned it over on 23.4% of their possessions, 341st of 364 in Division I, and the same habit ran through last season's team. Arkansas State's guards will reach for it: Royal Blue Smith averages 2.5 steals.
UT Martin has a way to win those possessions back. Arkansas State has grabbed only 58.8% of opponents' misses (defensive rebound rate), 348th nationally. The Skyhawks play bigger, at 79.0 inches of minutes-weighted height, and Kaan Onat's 8.0 rebounds a game make him the natural candidate to punish a thin back line. Whichever leak gets plugged first likely shapes the margin.
A foul-line hazard for the favorite
UT Martin fouls a lot. Opponents have attempted free throws at a rate of 54.7% of their field-goal tries, 346th in the country. Against most home teams that would be a gift.
Arkansas State has not been most home teams. The Red Wolves have made 43.6% of their free throws, dead last among 364 teams, and the shooters who would draw contact inside have struggled most. Amadou Doumbia, who leads the team in rebounding, has made 14.3% of his attempts. In a game priced around a possession and a half, a string of misses at the stripe is the quickest way for a favorite to bleed points late.
Newcomers carry the scoring
Remagen is UT Martin's story. The Georgia Tech transfer averaged 1.6 points last season and now leads the Skyhawks at 21.5 per game with a 36.8% usage rate, the share of possessions he finishes. He scored 19 in his first career start at IU Indianapolis and has hit 6 of 12 threes.
That matters because Arkansas State concedes the arc: opponents take 51.7% of their shots from deep, 24th-most in Division I. UT Martin shoots them at 37.5%, and Sasha Savkov has made 6 of 13.
For Arkansas State, Murray State transfer Layne Taylor is the steadying hand, a preseason All-Sun Belt second-team pick who scored 20 at Alabama and is shooting 43.8% from three. Jordan Pyke, from Incarnate Word, gives the bench punch with a 75% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times). Doumbia went to the locker room at Alabama after being slow to get up, returned to finish with 11 points and 10 rebounds, and no injury designation has surfaced since.
Tempo and a moving number
Arkansas State plays fast, at 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 11th-most nationally. UT Martin prefers a slower game, 249th in pace. Extra possessions favor the deeper, more talented roster, but they also mean more chances for the turnover and rebounding swings above.
The market has drifted toward the underdog. Arkansas State was -8.5 when our feed first saw the game and is -6.5 now, while the total has ticked up to 153.5. Both teams are 1-1 against the spread. The Red Wolves covered as big underdogs in a 101-86 loss at Alabama, and UT Martin failed to cover as a 2-point favorite at IU Indianapolis. UT Martin ends a road stretch on three days' rest. Arkansas State has had four.
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves line movement and odds
| Book | Skyhawks ML | Wolves ML | Skyhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 | +6.5 (-115) | o155.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +205 | -265 | +5.5 (-108) | o154.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +210 | -258 | +6.5 (-112) | o155.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +210 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +210 | -260 | +6 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +205 | -255 | +5.5 (-102) | o154.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +210 | -260 | +5.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +215 | -267 | +6 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks: 37% of bets, 12% of the money; Arkansas St Red Wolves: 64% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arkansas St Red Wolves -4.5: 75% of bets, 91% of the money; Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +4.5: 25% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 33% of bets, 14% of the money; Under 156.5: 67% of bets, 86% of the money.
Key players
- Davi Remagen (UT Martin): Averaging 21.5 points with a 36.8% usage rate after scoring 1.6 per game at Georgia Tech last season.
- Kaan Onat (UT Martin): Posts 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds but has made just 2 of 10 threes.
- Sasha Savkov (UT Martin): Has hit 6 of 13 threes for a 73.3% effective field goal percentage.
- Layne Taylor (Arkansas State): Averaging 16.5 points and 5.0 assists while shooting 43.8% from three.
- Jordan Pyke (Arkansas State): Scoring 11.5 points off the bench with a 75% effective field goal percentage.
- Amadou Doumbia (Arkansas State): Grabs 9.5 rebounds a game but has made 14.3% of his free throws.
- Royal Blue Smith (Arkansas State): Averages 2.5 steals but is shooting 17.4% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| UT Martin turnover rate | 23.4% | Ranks 341st of 364, the Skyhawks' biggest weakness against a handsy Arkansas State backcourt. |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State defensive rebound rate | 58.8% | Ranks 348th, an opening for the bigger Skyhawks on the offensive glass. |
| Arkansas State free throw percentage | 43.6% | Last of 364 teams, facing an opponent that sends teams to the line often. |
| Current spread | -6.5 | Arkansas State was -8.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Arkansas State pace | 80.7 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 11th-most nationally, against a UT Martin team that plays much slower. |
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves: quick answers
What was the final score of Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks 82, Arkansas St Red Wolves 65 (final). Tenn-Martin Skyhawks covered the closing spread (Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +5.5). The game went under the closing total of 155.5.
Who is favored in Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
Arkansas State is favored by 5.5 points (Arkansas State -5.5).
What is the over/under for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
The total is 155.5 points.
When is Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
Yes: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks opened +8.5 and is now +5.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks: 37% of bets, 12% of the money; Arkansas St Red Wolves: 64% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arkansas St Red Wolves -4.5: 75% of bets, 91% of the money; Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +4.5: 25% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 33% of bets, 14% of the money; Under 156.5: 67% of bets, 86% of the money.