Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams prediction: Colorado State's returning shooters test an Idaho roster that is almost entirely new
The Rams bring back a core of 40-percent shooters, while Idaho is still learning who it is after losing nearly all of last season's minutes.
| Spread | Colorado State -16.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151 |
- Colorado State's experienced shooters should control the night at Moby Arena unless sloppy ball security hands a rebuilt Idaho extra possessions.
- Watch Kristian Gonzalez, Idaho's high-usage guard back from injury, against a Rams backcourt that returns most of its rotation.
- Colorado State is favored by 16.75, up from 16.25. The Rams returned 57.9% of last season's minutes; Idaho returned 13.8%.
Continuity against a clean slate
Colorado State brought its shooters back. Idaho brought almost no one back. That gap frames the Rams' first Friday night of the season in Fort Collins, a 7 p.m. Mountain tip and the first meeting between these programs since 1966.
The Rams return 57.9% of last season's minutes, and the opening-night box score was full of familiar names. Josh Pascarelli and Carey Booth scored 16 apiece in Monday's win over Montana State. Jase Butler posted the first double-double of his career with 12 points and 10 rebounds, and he matched his career high in assists.
Idaho returns 13.8% of last season's minutes. Kolton Mitchell left for Ohio and Jackson Rasmussen for Oregon State, and Biko Johnson and Brody Rowbury are gone too. Alex Pribble, in his fourth season, has four players back from last spring's Big Sky championship roster. The Vandals won their opener 97-56, but it came against Division III George Fox, so their early numbers say little.
The returner who matters most barely played last season. Gonzalez's 2025-26 season ended with an injury after one game. He scored 24 in an October exhibition against Boise State. In the opener he carried a 33.5% usage rate, the highest on the team, while Kase Wynott led the scoring with 20.
Where the threes come from
Last season Colorado State shot 38.5% from three, 11th in the country. Four of this season's rotation players topped 40% from deep last year, and Pascarelli led them at 41.5%. Against Montana State, though, the Rams leaned inside and scored efficiently on twos. Whether they let it fly again on Friday is a choice, not a question of ability.
Idaho's defense last season struggled against the arc. The Vandals allowed 34.7% from three, 252nd nationally. That profile suits a Rams team full of shooters, although almost none of the defenders who produced those numbers are still on the roster.
Idaho shoots plenty of threes of its own. Last season the Vandals took 47.0% of their shots from deep, 34th nationally. Seth Joba, one of the few returners, made 36.2% of his attempts last year. A rebuilt roster that relies on threes can stay close for a half if the shots fall. If they don't, the game can get away quickly.
The giveaway problem
If Colorado State has a weakness to fix, it is ball security. The Rams turned it over on 21.9% of their possessions against Montana State, 289th nationally. Turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions, and this is not a one-game blip: last season's rate ranked 311th.
Idaho may not be built to punish it. Last season the Vandals forced turnovers at a 15.5% clip, 286th in the country, and their steal numbers were similarly modest.
The glass is where Idaho had its real strength. The Vandals ranked 4th nationally in defensive rebounding last season, grabbing 76.5% of opponents' misses. Colorado State rebounded 26.9% of its own misses in the opener, a below-average rate. Freshman Jaden Ghoreishi pulled down 11 rebounds off the bench in his college debut, and he could be the Rams' best answer if Idaho's rebuilt frontcourt, led by Western Michigan transfer Hudson Ward, holds that line.
A faster Rams team, a rising total
Colorado State played at one of the slowest tempos in the country last season, at 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 361st of 365. Against Montana State the Rams played at 73. If Ali Farokhmanesh's second team, now in the Pac-12, really is pushing the pace, the market has noticed.
The total first showed up in our feed at 148.25 and now sits at 151.5. The spread moved toward the home side, from 16.25 to 16.75. The Rams won Monday's opener by 10 but failed to cover as a double-digit favorite, and the game went over the total. They allowed 74 points to Montana State, which ranked 129th in adjusted net efficiency.
That defense is the open question behind a big spread. Last season Colorado State allowed 113.4 points per 100 possessions, 300th nationally. Colorado State has the shooting and continuity to win comfortably. Covering a number this large also requires stops against an Idaho team that will keep shooting threes.
Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams line movement and odds
| Book | Vandals ML | Rams ML | Vandals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 (-115) | o151.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +950 | -2500 | +16.5 (-107) | o151.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +1000 | -1800 | +15.5 (-108) | o151.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +1200 | -3000 | +16.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +1100 | -2000 | +16.5 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1160 | -2800 | +16.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1000 | -2500 | +16.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +1050 | -2000 | +16.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho Vandals: 69% of bets, 8% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 32% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -16.5: 66% of bets, 35% of the money; Idaho Vandals +16.5: 34% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 73% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 150.5: 27% of bets, 29% of the money.
Key players
- Josh Pascarelli (Colorado State): Scored 16 in the opener after shooting 41.5% on 147 three-point attempts last season.
- Jase Butler (Colorado State): Posted his first career double-double, 12 points and 10 rebounds, with six assists against Montana State.
- Carey Booth (Colorado State): Scored 16 in the opener and made 40.7% of his threes last season.
- Justin Menard (Colorado State): Averaged 12.9 points and shot 92.6% from the line at Marist last season.
- Kristian Gonzalez (Idaho): Back from a season-ending injury, he led Idaho with a 33.5% usage rate and scored 14 in the opener.
- Kase Wynott (Idaho): Scored 20 points and made 4 of 7 threes against George Fox.
- Seth Joba (Idaho): One of Idaho's few returners, he shot 36.2% from three last season and grabbed 11 rebounds in the opener.
- Hudson Ward (Idaho): Pulled down 12 rebounds in his Idaho debut.
Numbers that matter
| Idaho returning minutes | 13.8% | Idaho is nearly a new team, so last season's Vandals numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State spread | -16.75 | The line moved toward the Rams from the first number our feed recorded. |
| Rams turnover rate | 21.9% | Colorado State's turnover rate in the opener ranked 289th, its clearest flaw so far. |
| Rams 3-point % last season | 38.5% | It ranked 11th nationally, and most of the shooters are back. |
| Idaho defensive rebound % last season | 76.5% | It ranked 4th in the country, the strength Idaho most needs to carry over. |
Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams: quick answers
Who is favored in Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams?
Colorado State is favored by 16.5 points (Colorado State -16.5).
What is the over/under for Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams?
The total is 151 points.
When is Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams?
Yes: Idaho Vandals opened +16 and is now +16.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Idaho Vandals vs Colorado St Rams?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho Vandals: 69% of bets, 8% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 32% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -16.5: 66% of bets, 35% of the money; Idaho Vandals +16.5: 34% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 73% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 150.5: 27% of bets, 29% of the money.