Stony Brook vs Princeton prediction: Princeton's fully returning roster tests Stony Brook's portal rebuild

Continuity against a rebuilt roster

Princeton opens Jadwin Gymnasium on Wednesday, Nov. 11, with something rare in college basketball: its entire 2025-26 roster back. That is a mixed blessing, because last season's team finished 9-20. Mitch Henderson, in his 14th season, gets a group that already knows his system but has to show it can win more.

Stony Brook went the other way. Geno Ford rebuilt through the portal again, and the players on this season's roster played only 34.3% of last season's minutes and scored 27.4% of its points. Erik Pratt, who led the team at 19.4 points per game, is gone. So are Rob Brown III, who graduated, and Andrej Shoshkikj and Richard Goods, who both transferred to South Florida.

That turnover makes last season's Stony Brook numbers a weak guide. The Seawolves went 17-15 and won last season's meeting 80-70 on Long Island, but most of the players from that game have left.

Where the shots come from

Both teams like the three. Stony Brook took 46.0% of its shots from deep last season, 49th nationally in attempt rate, and Princeton wasn't far behind at 78th.

Princeton's defense split sharply by distance. Opponents made just 31.2% of their threes, 41st in the country, but shot 55.2% inside the arc, 328th. The Tigers rarely blocked a shot, ranking 333rd in block rate. Stony Brook's guards and wings may find room near the basket, which wasn't the case last season, when the Seawolves made just 48.8% of their twos (310th).

That is where the reported addition of three new bigs matters. If Ford's new frontcourt can score around the rim against a Princeton defense that gives up interior points, Stony Brook won't have to live on jumpers.

A slow game with few giveaways

Princeton played at a crawl last season, at 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th in Division I. Stony Brook sat near the middle of the pack in pace. In Princeton's home gym, a game with few possessions is the likelier outcome.

Princeton also doesn't create extra chances with its defense. It forced turnovers on 14.4% of possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), 336th, and ranked 343rd in steal rate. Its edge was on the glass: Princeton grabbed 72.2% of opponents' misses, 68th nationally, while Stony Brook's offensive rebounding ranked 277th.

Don't expect many free throws from the visitors. Stony Brook's free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) ranked 341st last season, so the Seawolves will have to score from the floor.

Stony Brook's new faces

The offense now runs through transfers. Bryan Ndjonga started 30 games at Canisius and averaged 13.9 points on a 25.8% usage rate, though his efficiency was modest. Jaden Daughtry came off the bench at Richmond and hit 45.3% of his threes.

Among the returners, Ethan Simmon is the most efficient scorer, with a 122.1 offensive rating last season on 39.7% three-point shooting. Collin O'Connor, limited to eight games last season by leg injuries, was expected back in the rotation as of late October. Freshman guard Özgür Cengiz arrives after playing professionally in Turkey.

Stony Brook also has the size edge, averaging 78.6 inches weighted by minutes to Princeton's 77.6.

Princeton's health and expectations

The main Princeton question is Jack Stanton, who is returning from an injury that cost him the end of last season. As of late October, Princeton hadn't publicly confirmed that he is cleared.

Outside expectations are moderate for both teams. An Ivy League preview ranked Princeton fourth in the league. A 13-team CAA preview listed Stony Brook seventh, though it didn't say whether that order reflects a projection, and the Seawolves expect to be among the league's best. Last season's adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had the two teams close: Stony Brook at 238th and Princeton at 246th.