Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction: Jack Karasinski and Northwestern's new three-point habit face Stony Brook
Chris Collins rebuilt his roster around shooting, and a Stony Brook team remade almost as thoroughly gets the second look at it, with the Wildcats short a center.
| Spread | Northwestern -12.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Northwestern should bomb away at a slow pace and pull clear if the threes fall, with Stony Brook's transfers needing their first real test.
- Karasinski's shooting against a Stony Brook perimeter defense that ranked 276th in opponent 3-point percentage last season with a mostly different roster.
- Northwestern is favored by 14, the same number as when our feed first recorded the line. The Wildcats' opener went under a 146.5 total at a 346th-ranked pace.
A new shot diet in Evanston
Last season Northwestern barely looked at the 3-point line. Its 3-point attempt rate (threes as a share of all shots) ranked 295th nationally. One game into this season, that number sits at 57.7%, 14th in the country. That is a different team, and the roster explains it: only 21.8% of last season's minutes are back.
The centerpiece is Bellarmine transfer Jack Karasinski, who scored 21.7 points a game there last season and shot 41.5% from deep. He opened his Northwestern career by hitting 7 of 11 threes for 24 points in the 86-60 win over Binghamton. Jake West, a returning captain, ran the show with 20 points and 12 assists, and LA Pratt added 19. Pratt missed most of last season with an injury, and Collins said in the preseason that he was still working back to form.
The matchup that matters is how Stony Brook guards the arc. Last season the Seawolves allowed opponents to shoot 35.1% from three, 276th nationally. Most of the players from that defense are gone, so treat that as a loose guide rather than a scouting report.
Thin up front without McEldon
Northwestern will play without Luke McEldon, the Mount St. Mary's transfer projected as its starting center. The Nov. 5 injury report lists him out indefinitely for personal reasons. That leaves Okku Federiko and 7-3 freshman Szymon Ghai to hold the paint. Freshman Jayden Hodge was listed out with a knee issue before the Oct. 18 exhibition, and there has been no update since.
The size gap is modest on both sides. Northwestern's minutes-weighted average height is 78.1 inches against Stony Brook's 77.6. Stony Brook's old roster offered little threat on the glass: its offensive rebound rate last season ranked 277th. The new Seawolves are an unknown there, and second chances are where a short-handed frontcourt would feel McEldon's absence.
Stony Brook's rebuilt core
Geno Ford, in his eighth season, lost leading scorer Erik Pratt, who averaged 19.4 points last season. He returns 34.3% of last season's minutes. The opener told little: a 97-47 rout of Division III Old Westbury, so this season's Stony Brook numbers come against non-Division I competition.
The pieces are still worth knowing. Canisius transfer Bryan Ndjonga led the opener with 18 points and seven rebounds. Jaden Daughtry, a preseason second-team All-CAA pick, averaged 8.9 points at Richmond last season but went 0 for 5 from three in the opener. Guard Collin O'Connor, a preseason All-CAA honorable mention, played for the first time since November 2025 and grabbed seven rebounds off the bench. Freshman Ozgur Cengiz handed out five assists.
Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Northwestern 60th and Stony Brook 238th. Both rosters have turned over too much for that gap to carry much weight.
The number and the tempo
Northwestern is a 14-point favorite, and the spread hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. The total has ticked up to 144.5. The Wildcats covered as 20.5-point favorites against Binghamton, a team that ranked 361st in adjusted net efficiency.
The total is the more interesting question. Collins' teams play slowly. Northwestern's pace of 63 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 346th in the opener, after ranking 324th last season. That game stayed under 146.5 even with Northwestern shooting well. Fewer possessions means each Karasinski three counts for more, but it also leaves less time for a large margin to build.
What to watch
- How many threes Northwestern attempts, and whether Karasinski gets clean looks.
- Whether Federiko and Ghai can keep Stony Brook off the offensive glass without McEldon.
- Daughtry's shot selection in his first game against a Big Ten defense.
- Pratt's minutes as he works back to form.
Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Seawolves ML | Wildcats ML | Seawolves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +625 | -1000 | +12.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +700 | -1100 | +11.5 (+100) | o144.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +750 | -1400 | +12.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +650 | -1000 | +12.5 (-110) | o144 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +610 | -950 | +12.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +575 | -900 | +12.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stony Brook Seawolves: 48% of bets, 38% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats: 52% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northwestern Wildcats -13.5: 44% of bets, 10% of the money; Stony Brook Seawolves +13.5: 56% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 20% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 144.5: 80% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- Jack Karasinski (Northwestern): Hit 7 of 11 threes for 24 points against Binghamton after shooting 41.5% from deep at Bellarmine last season.
- Jake West (Northwestern): Posted 20 points and 12 assists in the opener, a big jump from his 2.8 assists per game last season.
- LA Pratt (Northwestern): Scored 19 points on 3-of-5 shooting from three while working back from an injury that cost him most of last season.
- Angelo Ciaravino (Northwestern): The returning leading scorer at 6.3 points last season, he grabbed 10 rebounds in the opener.
- Bryan Ndjonga (Stony Brook): Led the opener with 18 points after averaging 13.9 at Canisius last season.
- Jaden Daughtry (Stony Brook): A preseason All-CAA second-teamer who shot 45.3% from three at Richmond last season but went 0 for 5 in the opener.
- Collin O'Connor (Stony Brook): Grabbed seven rebounds in 21 minutes in his first game since November 2025.
- Ozgur Cengiz (Stony Brook): Dished five assists and scored 10 points in his debut.
Numbers that matter
| Northwestern 3-point attempt rate | 57.7% | Ranked 14th this season after Northwestern ranked 295th last season, a sign of the rebuilt roster's identity. |
|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook opponent 3-point %, last season | 35.1% | Ranked 276th, though most of that roster is gone. |
| Northwestern returning minutes | 21.8% | So little is back that last season's Wildcats numbers are a weak guide. |
| Spread | -14.0 | Northwestern's number hasn't moved since it first posted. |
| Northwestern pace | 63 | Ranked 346th in possessions per 40 minutes, which caps the room for a blowout margin. |
Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Northwestern is favored by 12.5 points (Northwestern -12.5).
What is the over/under for Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats?
Yes: Stony Brook Seawolves opened +13.5 and is now +12.5, and the total is still 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stony Brook Seawolves: 48% of bets, 38% of the money; Northwestern Wildcats: 52% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northwestern Wildcats -13.5: 44% of bets, 10% of the money; Stony Brook Seawolves +13.5: 56% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 20% of bets, 1% of the money; Under 144.5: 80% of bets, 99% of the money.