St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction: Tim Franks and a rebuilt St. Thomas bring threes to The Barn

The Tommies reload around shooters

For the first time in nearly 100 years, St. Thomas and Minnesota share a floor, and the Tommies arrive at Williams Arena tonight as a Summit League contender built mostly from new parts. The Gophers opened Monday by beating North Dakota 85-50. The question is whether a rebuilt St. Thomas roster can shoot its way into a Big Ten building.

St. Thomas went 24-10 last season, but that team is largely gone. Players on this roster accounted for just 28.4% of last season's minutes, and the departures include Nolan Minessale, now at Marquette, and Nick Janowski, now at Davidson. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide here.

What carried over is a style: let it fly from deep. Tim Franks, who played 4.0 minutes a game last season, scored a career-high 24 in Monday's win at Presbyterian. He made 6 of 9 threes in the 87-78 victory. Carter Bjerke, named to the preseason all-Summit first team with Austin Herro, made 44.9% of his threes last season. St. Thomas was picked second in the league's preseason poll.

Minnesota's passing and length

Niko Medved's second Minnesota team moves the ball like his first. The Gophers assisted on 85.3% of their made baskets against North Dakota, best in Division I, and they led the country in assist rate last season as well. Bobby Durkin went 4 of 5 from three in the opener, and Isaac Asuma filled the box score as a passer, rebounder and shot blocker.

The bigger edge may be at the rim. Minnesota blocked 22.6% of North Dakota's two-point attempts, 18th nationally. St. Thomas ranked 330th in block rate after its opener, which leaves the lane open for Asuma and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson to attack.

The one soft spot was the new point guard. Kyan Evans, the North Carolina transfer who missed preseason time with a hamstring issue, made 14.3% of his shots against North Dakota. He still started alongside Asuma, Durkin, Crocker-Johnson and Grayson Grove.

Who is missing for Minnesota

Three Gophers sat out the opener. Cade Tyson remained sidelined while his eligibility case plays out in federal court. Freshman forward Chadrack Mpoyi is still waiting on an NCAA eligibility ruling, with Medved saying the school is trying to learn whether he falls under the new rules or the old ones.

Winters Grady, a transfer from Michigan, also sat. Medved called it "just a little foot thing, you know, just out of precaution," and said it was not serious. Minnesota has not said whether any of the three will play tonight. Malick Kordel, Nolan Groves and Kai Shinholster came off the bench Monday.

One shot and the free throw line

St. Thomas does not chase offensive rebounds. The Tommies ranked 353rd in offensive rebound rate after Monday, and they ranked 358th last season, so this is design rather than accident. Every Tommie possession likely ends with one shot, which puts even more weight on their threes falling.

Minnesota's weakness showed at the line. The Gophers made 53.8% of their free throws against North Dakota, 334th nationally. In a lopsided game that matters little, but if St. Thomas gets hot and makes it close late, those misses become a real problem.

What the line says

Minnesota is a 14.25-point favorite, down from -15.5 when our feed first recorded the game, so the move has gone toward St. Thomas. The total has climbed to 150.5 from 147.5.

The ratings back a clear gap without screaming blowout. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Minnesota at 11.2 and St. Thomas at 5.9, though both rosters have changed a lot since then. KenPom lists St. Thomas at No. 161 after the opener. Both teams covered Monday, against opponents ranked 263rd (Presbyterian) and 278th (North Dakota) in adjusted net efficiency, so neither result says much about tonight.