Southern Indiana vs IU Indianapolis prediction: IU Indy opens a new arena with a new roster and a familiar sprint
Two rebuilt rosters bring back almost nothing from last season, so the clearest clue is style: Ben Howlett's breakneck tempo against a Southern Indiana program that played slow and struggled to score.
- Expect a fast, ragged game if IU Indy keeps last season's tempo, with USI trying to slow it down and finish possessions inside.
- IU Indy's ball pressure against USI's guards, a group that turned it over often last season and leans on newcomer Afan Trnka.
- No line has been posted. Last season's pace gap, 75.4 possessions to 64.2, should shape the total most.
Two programs starting over
IU Indy picked Wednesday's game as one of five home non-conference dates in the new James T. Morris Arena, and it opens the building with a roster nobody in Indianapolis has seen together. Players on this season's Jaguars roster played just 13.2% of last season's minutes. Southern Indiana is barely more familiar at 15.0%.
Both teams finished last season near the bottom: USI went 7-23 and IU Indy went 7-25. Those records belong to rosters that are mostly gone. IU Indy lost Kyler D'Augustino, its 18.5-point scorer, to Ohio, and Maguire Mitchell to Indiana State. USI lost Ismail Habib, its leading scorer at 14.7 points, to Incarnate Word. Last season's team numbers describe a coach's habits more than this season's players.
Both teams open the season on Nov. 2, USI at Belmont and IU Indy against Miami (Ohio) Middletown, so each will have one game of film before this one.
Howlett's tempo is the constant
The one thing likely to carry over is how Ben Howlett, hired in May 2025, wants to play. His first IU Indy team averaged 75.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 3rd in Division I. Stan Gouard, in his seventh season at his alma mater, ran one of the slowest teams in the country at 64.2, 336th.
Howlett's speed came with pressure and passing. The Jaguars forced turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions (29th), and assisted on 64.0% of their made baskets (10th). USI coughed it up on 18.4% of its trips, 285th. If the Jaguars' new guards press the way last season's did, USI's ball handlers will face a test well before their first conference game.
USI's search for points
Southern Indiana's offense was the weakest part of last season's team. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 44.9%, 363rd of 365. It made only 43.8% of its twos and 65.6% of its free throws, both near the bottom nationally.
The newcomers don't promise a quick fix on shooting. Afan Trnka, a 6-2 senior guard from UT Martin, made 28.7% of his threes last season. Kaden Brown, the most productive returner, averaged 11.1 points in 13 games. Gouard has also added UAB transfer Ari Gooch, who he said "can be our defensive stopper."
Defense was USI's stronger side last season. Opponents took threes on just 27.4% of their shots, second-fewest in the country, and the Eagles held foes to a 48.8% effective field goal mark, 68th.
IU Indy's defense was the weak point
The Jaguars could score last season but couldn't stop anyone. Opponents posted a 57.7% effective field goal percentage against them (363rd) and scored 88.3 points per game, the most any Division I team allowed. They also fouled constantly: opponents shot 46.4 free throws per 100 field goal attempts, 359th.
The new scoring core has some shooting. Kameron Tinsley, the top returner, made 34.6% of his threes and 83.9% of his free throws last season. Gus Etchison arrives from Idaho State after scoring 8.8 points in just 13.2 minutes a game, and Chattanooga transfer Billy Smith made 64 threes last season. Whether this group defends better than the last one did is the bigger question.
What to watch
- Possession count early. A quick start favors Howlett's style; a slow first half means USI is controlling the game's shape.
- USI turnovers against the press. Trnka and Brown carry the ball-handling load.
- Free throws. IU Indy fouled at one of the highest rates in the country last season, and USI was among the nation's worst free-throw shooters.
- Opening-week film. Each team's Nov. 2 opener is the first real look at these rosters.
Key players
- Kaden Brown (Southern Indiana): Averaged 11.1 points in 13 games last season, the most of any USI returner.
- Afan Trnka (Southern Indiana): Handed out 2.4 assists a game at UT Martin last season but shot 28.7% from three.
- Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams (Southern Indiana): Used 24.1% of Oral Roberts' possessions while on the floor last season, a high share for a reserve frontcourt player.
- Kameron Tinsley (IU Indianapolis): Made 34.6% of his 136 three-point attempts last season with an offensive rating of 113.8.
- Gus Etchison (IU Indianapolis): Scored 8.8 points in 13.2 minutes a game at Idaho State last season with a 35.8% usage rate.
- Billy Smith (IU Indianapolis): Made 64 threes at Chattanooga last season, shooting 34% from deep.
Numbers that matter
| IU Indy pace, last season | 75.4 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 3rd in Division I under Howlett. |
|---|---|---|
| USI pace, last season | 64.2 | Ranked 336th, setting up a sharp clash in tempo. |
| IU Indy returning minutes | 13.2% | Almost the entire rotation is new, as is USI's at 15.0%. |
| USI effective FG%, last season | 44.9% | Ranked 363rd of 365, the biggest hole the newcomers must fill. |
| IU Indy opponent effective FG%, last season | 57.7% | Ranked 363rd, part of why the Jaguars allowed a national-worst 88.3 points a game. |
Southern Indiana vs IU Indianapolis: quick answers
When is Southern Indiana vs IU Indianapolis?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.