Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos prediction: Kansas City starts over from zero against a remade Southern Illinois
The Roos bring back none of last season's minutes, and a 2-point spread says the market no longer trusts last year's gulf between these programs.
| Spread | Pick'em |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 143.5 |
- Expect a tight game between two rebuilt rosters, decided by whether Kansas City stops giving the ball away.
- Jalen Haynes and a suddenly three-happy Salukis backcourt against Kansas City's transfer guards led by Jaylen Smith.
- The game is a Pick'em after our feed first saw Southern Illinois favored by 3.75, with movement toward Kansas City; the total is 143.5, down from 145.5.
Last season is a ghost
Kansas City went 4-27 last season and finished 356th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). That team is gone. The Roos return 0.0% of last season's minutes, and Mark Turgeon, hired Feb. 1, is in his first season on the bench.
Southern Illinois is only a little more familiar with itself. Just 18.1% of last season's minutes are back. Quel'Ron House left for Texas State and Rolyns Aligbe for Xavier. Scott Nagy, who brings 32 years of head coaching experience, has to build around holdovers who played small roles a year ago.
So last season's ratings, which had the Salukis 112th in adjusted net, are a weak guide. The fresher evidence is one game apiece. Kansas City led Creighton 39-33 at halftime Monday in Omaha before losing 76-61. Southern Illinois rolled past an overmatched Maryville 82-40.
Kansas City's giveaway problem
The Roos' new pieces got good looks at Creighton. Their shooting held up; ball security did not. Kansas City turned it over on 30.6% of its possessions, 355th in the country, and that is the number most likely to decide tonight.
Southern Illinois may not be built to exploit it. Against Maryville the Salukis forced turnovers at a rate that ranks 215th, and their steal rate sits 329th. Last season's team was a disruptive defense, but the players who made it so mostly left. If Kansas City's giveaways were a product of Creighton's length rather than a habit, this game tightens fast.
Salukis rewrite their shot chart
Last season Southern Illinois barely shot threes and rarely made them: its 27.8% from deep ranked 364th. Against Maryville, the new group took 59.1% of its shots from three, 11th nationally, and made 41.0%.
The shooters were guards. Haynes went 4 of 6 from deep and Luke Walsh 4 of 7 off the bench. That is a real change for Haynes, who made 16 of 78 threes as a freshman last season. One hot night against a lower-level opponent proves little, but it shows how Nagy wants this roster to play.
Kansas City let Creighton take 47.5% of its shots from three. If the Roos give the same room, the Salukis will test whether Monday was a shift or a fluke.
A short number for the Roos
A short number for the Roos The market has erased this game's spread. Our feed first saw Southern Illinois favored by 3.75; the line now sits at Pick'em, moving toward Kansas City. That is a notable price against a team that lost by 23 in last year's meeting, a 101-78 Salukis win in Carbondale.
Kansas City's case rests on its transfers. Jaylen Smith, a preseason all-Summit second-team pick, carried a 36.3% usage rate against Creighton. Carl Daughtery Jr. shot 42% from three at UC Davis last season but went 1 of 6 on Monday. The total has come down from 145.5 to 143.5, and the Roos' opener went under its number.
Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos line movement and odds
| Book | Salukis ML | Kangaroos ML | Salukis spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-130) | o143.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -113 | -110 | -0.5 (-113) | o143.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 | -1.5 (+105) | o143.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-125) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 | -1 (-105) | o143.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -105 | -114 | +1.5 (-120) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+105) | o143.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Illinois Salukis: 63% of bets, 35% of the money; UMKC Kangaroos: 37% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Southern Illinois Salukis -1.5: 63% of bets, 38% of the money; UMKC Kangaroos +1.5: 38% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 143.5: 10% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 143.5: 90% of bets, 98% of the money.
Key players
- Jalen Haynes (Southern Illinois): Scored 20 points with 7 assists against Maryville after shooting 20.5% from three last season.
- Luke Walsh (Southern Illinois): Hit 4 of 7 threes for 14 points in 24 minutes off the bench in the opener.
- Max Pikaar (Southern Illinois): Grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked 3 shots in the opener after a reserve role last season.
- Jaylen Smith (Kansas City): The East Tennessee State transfer led the Roos with 15 points and a 36.3% usage rate at Creighton.
- Sebastian Hartmann (Kansas City): Added 8 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists against Creighton in 31 minutes.
- Carl Daughtery Jr. (Kansas City): Shot 42% from three at UC Davis last season but made 1 of 6 in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Kansas City returning minutes | 0.0% | Nothing from last season's 4-27 team carries over, so its old ratings say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City turnover rate | 30.6% | Ranked 355th after the Creighton loss; it is the Roos' biggest threat to themselves. |
| SIU 3-point attempt rate | 59.1% | Ranked 11th after the opener, a sharp break from last season's shot-shy team. |
| Spread | -2 | Southern Illinois favored, down from 3.75 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 145.5 | Unchanged since first seen; Kansas City's opener went under. |
Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos: quick answers
Who is favored in Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos?
Neither team: the game is a pick'em at the sportsbooks.
What is the over/under for Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos?
The total is 143.5 points.
When is Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos?
Yes: Southern Illinois Salukis opened -3.5 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 145.5 to 143.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Southern Illinois Salukis vs UMKC Kangaroos?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Illinois Salukis: 63% of bets, 35% of the money; UMKC Kangaroos: 37% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Southern Illinois Salukis -1.5: 63% of bets, 38% of the money; UMKC Kangaroos +1.5: 38% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 143.5: 10% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 143.5: 90% of bets, 98% of the money.