South Carolina State vs Notre Dame prediction: Logan Duncomb and rebuilt Notre Dame test SC State's thin glass

Stakes in South Bend

Micah Shrewsberry did not tinker this offseason. He gutted the roster and added 10 players, six transfers and four freshmen, in what many around the program see as a make-or-break fourth season. He is 41-56 at Notre Dame, the Irish are coming off three straight losing seasons, and they have not reached the NCAA Tournament since 2022.

Shrewsberry is also fully cleared after the Achilles injury he suffered in February, though as of late October he was still rebuilding strength in his calf. Notre Dame was slated to open in Rome against Villanova on Nov. 1, and this home date against the MEAC's South Carolina State comes with nearly an entirely new group. SC State coach Erik Martin has said a non-conference slate with Notre Dame, Wichita State, West Virginia and South Carolina will test his team.

Duncomb against a soft interior

The most productive player on either roster arrives from Winthrop. Logan Duncomb averaged 18.2 points last season and shot 60% from the field, with an offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) of 130.9.

SC State is poorly built to handle that kind of post presence. Beyond the weak defensive rebounding, opponents made 54.5% of their twos against the Bulldogs, 313th nationally. They also got to the line constantly. SC State's opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 364th. A center who draws contact could leave the Bulldogs' frontcourt in foul trouble early.

Notre Dame protected its own glass last season, ranking 41st in defensive rebound rate, though the leading rebounder from that group, Carson Towt, is gone.

Two rosters starting over

Treat last season's team numbers as a loose guide for both sides. Notre Dame returns 34.3% of last season's minutes, and only two starters are back: Braeden Shrewsberry and Brady Koehler. Center Tommy Ahneman, who had knee surgery in October 2025, is listed as a returner, but there has been no recent word on his status.

SC State returns even less, 29.6% of its minutes. The Bulldogs lost their top scorer, Jayden Johnson, to Bowling Green and their best perimeter shooter, Owen Bronston Jr., to Cleveland State. Noah Treadwell, who scored 9.4 points a game, is now the leading returning scorer. Martin's roster page lists several first-year players, and no starters have been announced.

Turnovers that may go unpunished

SC State's biggest flaw last season was ball security. The Bulldogs turned it over on 21.4% of possessions, 356th in Division I. Against most opponents that would end the game early. Notre Dame was not most opponents: the Irish forced turnovers on just 14.0% of possessions, 342nd, and their steal rate ranked 359th.

The pressure ran the other way, too. SC State forced turnovers on 19.6% of possessions last season, a real strength, against a Notre Dame offense that sat near the middle of the country in giveaways. If the Bulldogs keep this within reach, live-ball steals are the most likely reason. With so many new ball handlers on the floor for the Irish, early sloppiness is plausible.

Shooters and the stripe

Notre Dame's perimeter shooting should carry over even through the rebuild. Braeden Shrewsberry hit 40.2% of his threes last season, and Penn transfer Ethan Roberts made 41.2% while averaging 16.9 points. Those two give Duncomb room inside.

SC State's path to points ran through the free throw line, where the Bulldogs earned plenty of trips but converted only 66.9%, 345th nationally. Free throws they miss are points a team with SC State's offensive struggles cannot afford to give back.